Value bet or bluff catcher?

[easypickings]

Not the most fascinating hand ever, but the kind of spot that comes up again and again, so I wondered what people's thoughts are. The hand is from the GUKPT event this weekend, towards the end of the second day. It's a blind on blind confrontation, with me in the small and Robin Keston the big.

I complete the 4k big blind with As5c, and we both check a flop of Kx7d4d.

The turn comes the five of diamonds, making the board Kx7d54d. I bet 8k into a pot of 11k, and he calls.

The river comes a blank seven, making the board Kx7x7d5d4d, and the action is to me. I've got the second bottom pair, but with an unlikely nut kicker.

Is this a value bet or a bluff catcher?

[action man]

personally i check/ call cause your hand looks really weak here and will bet all missed draws and obv hands that beat you. Also you could end up valuetowning yourself.
He prolly has a five or a flush draw and might not even call with a five so i think check/call and hope he bluffs missed diamonds.

ESP if he is capable of making a sick bluff raise on the river which is too big for you to call. never played robin so wouldnt know if he is capable

[easypickings]

Yeah, reason I put it up is that I think it's a really tight one between the two choices. I think I would definitely bluff catch any other five on K7754ddd, but the fact that I beat any five and any four made we wonder whether the right spot actually is to value bet here.

The reason I'm thinking I should value bet is that my hand looks so much like a missed draw itself, and that I can represent this even better by making an overly big bet.

I think Keston is "good" enough that he may well try to sniff out a bluff if I make something like a 25k bet into the 27k pot, if he has any four or any five. The other factor is that it would be a pretty crap way to play a hand like Qd8x or 9d6x to call the turn, and bluff the end, and that Keston might avoid doing this?

Good celebrations last night Rick?

[action man]

no reason to think he has a four.

i still like my way

good celebrations yeh, apart from me being bar blocked, so sick the amount i spent behind that bar aswell. Felt gutted for you mate, u deserved much more, youre time will come mate

[easypickings]

Awesome, just a shame it was London for the celebrations, and not Blackpool or somewhere! To be honest, I don't think I was as unlucky as it looked; I think I butchered the Kq vs AK hand, there is no need for me to lose all my chips there I think, even if I have got to lose a few.

I agree, a four in his hand really should be unlikely, as surely most players bet any pair on the flop after the small blind has limped and checked? He actually showed 42 (deuce of diamonds), and so my check was wrong. Whether he calls a bet I don't know, but it's one of those spots where he probably calls 20k nearly as often as he calls 6k.

I don't know the guy at all, but any possibility at all that he could find a sick re-raise which I can't call maybe shifts it in favour of the check.

[AlexMartin]

c/f from here.

[maldini32]

c c

[Royal Flush]

This is surely dependant on his read of your play to this point and can't be asked in isolation.

For me personally i value bet all the time here live as people always think i am a maniac.

[Moorman1]

agree with flushy 4 once! I'd bet here because ppl always think I am bluffing, also looks more like he has weak showdown value than a missed draw for him his play in the hand so far

[easypickings]

Yeah, agree Flushy. He had actually just sat down at the table, so what do you reckon the default?

I think another factor that matters alot is not how the player reads me, but just the standard of player. Because he is a very good player (I presume?) I think he is fairly unlikely to come up with the bluff I want him to- of calling with something like a queen high flush draw on the turn and bluffing the end- because this is a fairly crap bluff.

I actually think that a value bet is right with any kind of aggro reputation, as we look so weak here.

[action man]

there are far more floats/draws for him to have missed that he will bet the river with. He may even bluff raise your river bet and as most live players size thier raises really big then i still think this is perfect check/call material. Agree it is massively due to your own image at this point. My default is c/c here rightly or wrongly

[easypickings]

And one more, also from the weekend. Start of the second day, blinds are 600/1200 (100). Cascarino rasies UTG to 3,400, William Martin calls UTG+2, and I call from with BB with  . The effective stack is my 45k. William Martin is a very good player, but a solid one in this spot, and I think his range is going to be dominated by (77-JJ, AQ,AJ,Kqs).

The flop comes  , giving me the 2nd nut flush.

I decide to check (probably wrong, but that's another story), and it's checked round.

Turn makes the board  , counterfeiting my hand, but giving me the 2nd nuts. Checked round again.

River makes the board  , and I am first to speak. Cascarino is giving off that he has nothing, so let's presume he does. Am I best to value bet my hand hoping for a thin call (most likely from Martin), or check and hope to catch a bluff?

[action man]

this is a bet 100% as played, he has shown no predaliction (sp) that he has a hand and will pay you with clubs that he would check behind

[Royal Flush]

Bet 3/4-full pot on the river here.

William Martin is a very good player, but a solid one in this spot, and I think his range is going to be dominated by (77-JJ, AQ,AJ,Kqs).

Only played with him in 1 comp but thought he was pretty bad, seemed to have no clue about hand values heading towards short handed play and seemed to lack the understanding of correct implied odds in a number of situations.

I would calls him as Tight-Bad.

[mondatoo]

Just out of interest flushy how many players would you class as very good players on the UK circuit ?