To call or not to call...

[JungleCat03]

I don't know why but i timebanked down on this hand and was unsure what to do which seems strange as I'm sure I've been in this situation lots of times before.

OK, Q7o in the BB. Blinds are 5k 10k. You have 141k which is above average (crapshoot ipoker comps ftw)

Guy shoves for 30k from UTG+2.

Guy calls all-in on the button for 30k.

It's on you.

20k to call out of your remaining 131k (after posting the BB)

Call or not...

Edit: Just to clarify, the guy on the button has called his stack of 30k off by calling all-in here.

[boldie]

You're getting massive odds...but you need to hit the perfect flop do be confident about being ahead here.

Fairly standard fold TBH

[JungleCat03]

You're getting massive odds...but you need to hit the perfect flop do be confident about being ahead here.

Fairly standard fold TBH

I thought it was fairly close at the time. But I erred on the side of caution and folded.

I don't think changing your stack from 13BBs to 11BBs massively changes its utility so for me it's just an ev question.

When i ran numbers through pokerstove of what i felt their perceived ranges were, It turned out to be +EV and so a call in my eyes.

For what it's worth, i thought the first shover pushed something like any ace, any pair, any broadway and some random stuff like suited connectors and the second guy who called his 3xBB stack all-in had something like any pair, A7+, KJ+.

Would you agree with these ranges?

UTG+2: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
BUTTON: 22+,A7s+,KJs+,A7o+,KJo+
ME: Q7o

This gives me 22.78% equity, and I need 21.05% to be +EV. So, it's close, but is +EV (going by these ranges) and the opportunity to transform a 13BB stack into a 20.5BB stack would change the dynamic of the game considerably in my view at a key stage of the tournament where the average is around 12BBs and a 20 BB stack would be better able to steal effectively and threaten other stacks.

So basically I folded but I would call in the future.

[boldie]

hmmm...didn't expect it to be this close really....interesting.

Wonder what others have to say about this one...looking at the figures you might be right (rangers seem fine)...especially now I read that button called all in (Thought he had chips behind for some reason) and there is no more play after the flop.

[MANTIS01]

Using approx 15% of your stack to take on approx 4/1 gamble is approx ok imo. Also I once read that Q-7 is the random hand that hits most by the river. But don't know how that conclusion is reached.

[Sweetman]

The way I would look at this would be to use ICM. Do you have access to any ICM software? To establish  whether or not this is a fold or call, you can calculate "tournament equity" using ICM, then compare the increase if tournament equity if you call and win, and the decrease in tournament equity if you call and lose.

The ratio between these two figures, determines the equity in this hand you need to find a call.

For example, say at the moment you have 24%  tournament equity and winning the pot will increase your tournament equity to 36% (increase of 12%). If you call and lose this hand you drop to 20% tournament equity (decrease of 4%) as your stack just drops to 11BB from 13BB (again, these numbers are hypothetical, I don't know the remaining players' stack sizes).

So, call and win = increase 12% equity in the tournament
    call and lose = decrease 4% equity in the tournament

so you are basically taking a 3-1 bet with 4% of your tournament equity.

Therefore you can take this gamble if you feel your equity in this particular hand is anything above 25% (3-1). 

In this particular situation, pokerstove said the call was +EV against the two predicted ranges, so as the pot layed you 3.75-1 (20K to win 75K), you must have more than 21% equity.

Therefore if my totally hypothetical figures of tournament equity and resultant equity were correct, this would be a real borderline decision.

I personally think maybe you have the button's range a little too wide (is the call still +ev if you narrow him to 55+,A9s+,KQs+,ATo+,KJo+ ?)

[kinboshi]

For me it's so close that either action is OK.

How many runners are left btw?

[AlexMartin]

20k to win 75k with no further betting? erm, i call.

ps how did you get 140k on ipoker?

[GreekStein]

How can we pass here?

[kinboshi]

How can we pass here?

Is it not a close thing?  Is it really that much of a instacall?

[GreekStein]

How can we pass here?

Is it not a close thing?  Is it really that much of a instacall?

To me it is yeah. (I take it this is the final table too.)

With 3 big blinds I really expect him to be pushing absolutely any two if folded to him on the button. Q7 has just as much chance of being ahead as it does behind really. I rarely expect to be in bad shape here too. With the money in the pot I'm almost fistpumping.

[Sweetman]

As a case of pure EV, the pot is laying us 3.75 to 1, so we need 21.05% equity in the hand to call profitably.

The OP has already outlined that his call is inded +EV against the two ranges he put his opponents on.

But EV of this hand is not the only factor involved when deciding to call in a tournment. Resluting tornament equity if we call and win, or call and lose; is the crucial factor, if we get the stacks of all remaining players, we can work this out mathematically using ICM.

[gatso]

with both oppos allin I call this very quickly

[MANTIS01]

with both oppos allin I call this very quickly

But not as quickly as me. Cos I would call so quickly the date on the newspaper would read November 12th 1955 and I'd have to wait 50 years to actually witness myself making the call.

[gatso]

with both oppos allin I call this very quickly

But not as quickly as me. Cos I would call so quickly the date on the newspaper would read November 12th 1955 and I'd have to wait 50 years to actually witness myself making the call.

you're Marty?