Swimming Against the Tide

[The Camel]

300pts Hull @ 2.38.

gogogogo

ship ship mcgipp

[Robert HM]

300pts Hull @ 2.38.

gogogogo

ship ship mcgipp

ty ty ty I forgot to check the scores, I have that much faith.

[Longy]

300pts Hull @ 2.38.

gogogogo

Wiiiii, nice one Camel.

Following you I actual might make a profit out of sports betting.

Quick question, do you actual price all the games up before looking at the odds. If so how do you go about this process?

[The Camel]

300pts Hull @ 2.38.

gogogogo

Wiiiii, nice one Camel.

Following you I actual might make a profit out of sports betting.

Quick question, do you actual price all the games up before looking at the odds. If so how do you go about this process?

I normally price up the games to 95% (which gives me a pretty big margin of error) and when a price is bigger than my price I have a bet.

Beware though, these bets are running really well at the moment. I would be very disappointed to lose on the year, but I'm running way, way, way ahead of expected ROI right now.

[Graham C]

So how would you decide that Hull at 2.38 are value?  What makes them decent value at this price but not at...whatever would be?   What sort of things do you look out for?   Not expecting all your secrets obviously, but  I'm curious as to how it all works as I know very little about betting.

Thanks for this by the way

[The Camel]

So how would you decide that Hull at 2.38 are value?  What makes them decent value at this price but not at...whatever would be?   What sort of things do you look out for?   Not expecting all your secrets obviously, but  I'm curious as to how it all works as I know very little about betting.

Thanks for this by the way

An easy question toask, without an easy answer.. but if you read these two articles they explain overround and value betting better than I could:

http://www.betrescue.com/football_odds_guide.shtml

http://www.betfinder.co.uk/articles/article4.asp

I price up a game to 95%.. and if a bookmakers price is bigger than mine, I have a bet. The bigger discrepancy, the more I have on.

I made Hull 6/5 to beat Sheffield last night.. 2.38 is nearly 11/8.. if they had been 6/4 or bigger I would have had a maximum bet.

How did I make them 6/5? That is where judgement comes into it.. I used to work in the betting industry and have priced up many thousands of events.. it's just experience and feel. I pretty confident I know what a price should be, as long as I've done enough background work.

Meanwhile...

200pts Doncaster @ 2.9.

Big price imo.

[Graham C]

Cheers, will have a read
Come on the Donny!

[The Camel]

Running Total +2667

Hull WIN +393
Doncaster WIN +361

Running Total +3421 (34.21)

[Robert HM]

Bugger had to go out tonight.

[Longy]

Bugger had to go out tonight.

Still got on ldo.

[Robert HM]

Bugger had to go out tonight.

Still got on ldo.

Sadly not, on the way to dinner before tip was posted. Nice meal though.

[Graham C]

Same here, well missed anyway, was after kick off by the time I realised and it wasn't in play!

Scoop the result, great going

[The Camel]

Busy day..

500pts Bristol City @ 1.8
200pts Coventry @ 3.9
200pts Preston @ 2.54
LAY 300pts Reading @ 1.55
LAY 300pts Wolves @ 1.5

gogogogogo

[Colchester Kev]

Have a shilling on Fulham please Mr Hawkins ... your golden coin will ensure the goons dont win and keep their sorry arses out of the top 4

[The Camel]

Add

300pts Liverpool @ 1.87.

(Couldn't back Fulham with forged money today at 11, Sorry Sir Kev)