4 handed on the final, blind on blind

[TightEnd]

blinds are 2,000-4,000

UTG 50,000

Button 65,000

Small blind 27,000

Big Blind hero 65,000

payouts £1570,£880,£520,£350


folded to the small blind, who raises to 15,000 with 12,000 behind

Big blind looks down at 

the two other players are nitty rocks. the small blind is active, far higher raise frequency that the other two


Should hero set the small blind in here?

[Royal Flush]

[  ] No

[TightEnd]

[  ] No

Shhh, nit-roller.

[EvilPie]

It looks like a raise to induce a shove.

[ ] Don't give him what he wants.

[TheChipPrince]

Ante's?

We're paying 23,000 to win 54,000 in what will nearly always be a 50/50 unless he has the dream A2/A3 or the nightmare higher pair, surely an automatic shove

We never have a big enough edge to pass this surely

[Laxie]

[  ] No

+1  INSTA!!!

[TightEnd]

Ante's?

We're paying 23,000 to win 54,000 in what will nearly always be a 50/50 unless he has the dream A2/A3 or the nightmare higher pair, surely an automatic shove

We never have a big enough edge to pass this surely

We certainly don't have a big enough edge. well I don't.

I shoved, thanks all

[ x ] end thread.

[noble1]

Ante's?

We're paying 23,000 to win 54,000 in what will nearly always be a 50/50 unless he has the dream A2/A3 or the nightmare higher pair, surely an automatic shove

We never have a big enough edge to pass this surely

We certainly don't have a big enough edge. well I don't.

I shoved, thanks all



[ x ] end thread.

What was the stack sizes of the other 2 tightend , for a ICM point of view...  agreed sb opening range here could be as high as 50% so with odds of 1.22 [45% equity] it is close even without knowledge of other 2 stacks.

[TightEnd]

in the initial post

50 and 65

[totalise]

Ante's?

We're paying 23,000 to win 54,000 in what will nearly always be a 50/50 unless he has the dream A2/A3 or the nightmare higher pair, surely an automatic shove

We never have a big enough edge to pass this surely

We certainly don't have a big enough edge. well I don't.

I shoved, thanks all



[ x ] end thread.

What was the stack sizes of the other 2 tightend , for a ICM point of view...  agreed sb opening range here could be as high as 50% so with odds of 1.22 [45% equity] it is close even without knowledge of other 2 stacks.

no

[noble1]

your icm looks like -
fold 0.2753
call 0.3392
lose 0.2159
giving yourself a 45% chance to win -  [0.45*0.3392]+[0.55*0.2159]=0.2713 ev to call your fold ev is 0.2753 so giving yourself a 45% chance of beating his range here is a fold...

66+,A4s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo is the range i gave him roughly unless you think it is wider ??
55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,A5o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o is still a fold at 47%........................

[MC]

Yeah, you kinda have to shove here

He might slow play the biggest pairs, so unlikely you're worse than 50% here, and being hopeful he could have A2, A3, A4

[noble1]

why ? the main idea is that you do not want to be taking risks and calling off your chips (note the emphasis on calling) with three other players remaining. You don't want to risk calling into races, mostly because of the small increase from fourth to third place. This is contradictory to the style of most players, who are thrilled that they just made the money, and are willing to take risks, loosely calling all-ins after playing tight in hopes of getting lucky and possibly winning first place.

It is -ev call and the increase of tightends stack is not worth the risk...

[TightEnd]

but hold on a sec, no one is doing ICMs to that detail at a live table. taking into account knowledge of player (active, loose), a view of his range and the stacks you can't tell me its a definitvely -EV shove sitting there without a lappy and an ICM programme to hand!   

[noble1]

but hold on a sec, no one is doing ICMs to that detail at a live table. taking into account knowledge of player (active, loose), a view of his range and the stacks you can't tell me its a definitvely -EV shove sitting there without a lappy and an ICM programme to hand!   

is it not an idea to analyze these type of situations so that when similar ones occur your decision making will be better?
the more you use icm,equity,ranges to analyze your sngs + mtts using it to work out your bubble play and where you stand chips to prize when in the money , some of these decisions become easier and reqire no lappy or icm calc as you get used to the numbers..

because stove is so popular a lot of players now know ranges and equity by memory..It is the same with icm but less players utilise it...