4 handed on the final, blind on blind

[MANTIS01]

I don't think you're ever going to get in to these sort of situations often enough for ICM to ever apply here.

ICM is great for sngs because you play thousands of games so eventually the maths will work in your favour.

In live tournaments the cards matter much more than the maths so this is a shove. If you get in a race so be it.

Erm...... Wait, What?

ICM is as relevant whether it was over 1 hand, 1 tournament or 1000 tournament, What is +ev or -ev will remain so, variance has no impact whether ICM is right or wrong.

The cards and the maths of poker are the same thing, I don't see the difference. Live tourneys are different from other formats but for none of the reasons you have stated.

Fair point

[noble1]

when in a mtt or sng and you are down to 2 , icm goes out the window and calculating with chips/equity works just as well in that situation. But when it is 3 to 5 left ICM is the most accurate, if there are anymore players than that in a mtt it becomes more difficult to predict the actual outcome because the number of variables that come into play in tournaments make it that ICM doesn't capture them very easily and is difficult to model in general.

When you use it daily though a lot of these ranges/payouts +EV -EV decisions become easier as you have analyzed similar before.ICM takes into account the actual payouts, and because of this, it tends to be more accurate than estimating using only chips/pot odds..

after all that i'd still called with 44 it is close but i'd examine it afterwards to see if it was a correct call ..

[Royal Flush]

your icm looks like -
fold 0.2753
call 0.3392
lose 0.2159
giving yourself a 45% chance to win -  [0.45*0.3392]+[0.55*0.2159]=0.2713 ev to call your fold ev is 0.2753 so giving yourself a 45% chance of beating his range here is a fold...

66+,A4s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo is the range i gave him roughly unless you think it is wider ??
55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,A5o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o is still a fold at 47%........................

how does he not have small pairs in his range?

[noble1]

because tightend had 44 so i discounted 22,33 but that makes a difference of about 0.5% ....opps sry 0.44%

[Ismene]

I insta especially being you tighty.

It's all very well using the tools to calculate after the event - but it is purely math and fails to take into account human psychology. Just because the math tells you it is the right thing to do - does not automatically mean that it is correct in every situation.

Your image is such that the call would be made unwillingly IMO - and some - although i doubt many - may even find a fold purely because they don't expect you to play back at them with small pairs and their range for you will be much select and definitive.

There is also the fact that the others in your opinion are "nits" - even more nitty than you. Therefore he has more chance of making them fold with a push of half their stack than possibly heading into a pot with you in which he believes you are more than likely to win. Take into account the money and remaining alive seems a far more interesting prospect.

Furthermore should you win a flip then, as has been previously stated, rather eloquently IMO, the momentum and future of the table are yours to control.

Snap man - your image is priceless

[totalise]

when did people forget that ICM assumes equal skill levels between participants.

[noble1]

when did people forget that ICM assumes equal skill levels between participants.

ICM assumes nothing , you yourself guess villains hand range...icm just works out the rest to see which option fold or call is the most profitable.
Personally, I don't put a lot of value into ICM, but regardless of what I think, it's good to know. In short, ICM is the concept of putting a real money value on your current stack, relative to your opponents and the total payout in the tournament.

[Longy]

when did people forget that ICM assumes equal skill levels between participants.

ICM assumes nothing , you yourself guess villains hand range...icm just works out the rest to see which option fold or call is the most profitable.
Personally, I don't put a lot of value into ICM, but regardless of what I think, it's good to know. In short, ICM is the concept of putting a real money value on your current stack, relative to your opponents and the total payout in the tournament.

It is still based on the fact that everyone is of equal ability, as you current equity is based on your chip stack and how that relates to the prize structure. Nothing to do with your ability compared to the rest of the field.

[noble1]

Where does the skill argument come in when using interpolation when the calculation is not a raise but calling/setting a all in here with 4 left?,the only problem i see is that the size of the blinds are not taking into account with icm...

is not the skill argument/debate about icm when there are more than 5 players left as in sngs when 9/10 players begin? 3to5 players left then icm is pretty useful as the increases in equity are more important now. [in tightends case he is in the payout position]