Bluffing goes wrong

[gatso]

your river bet baffles me. you know that he's calling you here, you know you're going to showdown with air so instead of cutting your losses you decide to chuck away nearly 1/2 a buyin.

if you're going to throw away that £80 I prefer to do what billy says and overbet shove the turn and at least give yourself a chance of winning the pot

[TightEnd]

if you're going to throw away that £80 I prefer to do what billy says and overbet shove the turn and at least give yourself a chance of winning the pot

Yes.

Quite cathartic posting mangled hands and half baked thought processes

[GreekStein]

Flop raise I actually don't mind tighty. I might raise there in a live game with a set too.

I don't think you had a plan other than 'I'm gonna bluff this donk'. I think you went wrong with the £100 on the turn. I would have bet more like £65 to make it look more like value and give ourselves a much better chance of having him fold when we pump the river and he has over £100 behind. Once he's put £150 in and has £80 back he isnt folding even if he knows he's beat.

[Longy]

You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.

[TightEnd]

You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.

why is not repping an overpair?

[EvilPie]

I think both of you played it badly on the turn.

If you knew that you were bluffing the river as well then as has been previously said you should be shoving the turn.

If villain knows that he's calling the river even if he misses his gut shot he should shove the turn as well.

You really needed to assess both stacks before making your move on the turn. A little bit of logic suggests that you shouldn't bluff off more than half your stack on the turn because you know you're getting called on the river if your oppo calls the turn.

£60 - £70 on the turn leaves oppo with around £110 on the river which gives him more incentive to pass when you confidently shove.

[Longy]

You are repping a very small range on this board, I mean we are pretty repping flopped sets and 56s, that is about it. Of course whether that matters against most live players who will rarely look beyond their own cards never mind considering your range.

As others have said i think you are pretty much throwing away every penny you put in on this river, as you get called close to 100% of the time here. Due to the pot size compared to your stack.

why is not repping an overpair?

Well you would 3 bet some of that range lets say jj+ and you have said you would 3bet 99, so that leaves 88 no? Would you really fire 3 bullets in this spot with a weak overpair?

[TightEnd]

my reply to gatso referred to the fact that I would raise 99 post flop (not necesarily pre) after his c-bet.

thanks though, plenty to chew over.

[AlexMartin]

i echo chipprince, well worded op.

on this board id much rather float with a view to bluffraising the turn/barreling turn and river given stacks and ability to rep a wider range.

if u decide bluffraising the flop is best, raise more on the flop so you can shove on the turn.

[celtic]

its your LAG rep that gets you called here.

You are known as looseEnd amongst some at Luton.

[MC]

I make a bunch of these kind of raises heads up, but if a bad card comes on the turn, I'm more inclined to give it up cold...

The turn is such a big blank. An 8, 9 or T and you actually have some kind of hand. But also with any Jack-Ace firing might have been the way to go. This is like the worst card to do this with though.

Same on the river really. You can't really make any hand fold the river with yet another bad card, so it hurts, but I'm giving up even though so committed to the bluff...

[totalise]

I think your line assuming you made the decision on the flop to try and steal this pot by the river is the best one.

the frequency with which they call £100 on the turn compared to the frequency with which they call £180 allin (or whatever the exact amount is)  on the turn is gonna be close to linear, but when you leave some back to bet on the river, at least you give yourself a chance to win the pot on the river by making them fold all their whiffed shitty draws, that beat 9 high,  which you wont get a chance to do if you stack off on the turn. Yes, we always get called by made hands that called the turn, but I think we always get called by them on the turn anyways when we jam, IF they would call the hundo bet, so its not like you lose a lot, but the times they have that crappy whiffed draw, you at least give them a chance to fold the river when they miss.

Personally,  I think the best way to play this hand is to just fold the flop first time round and choose a board with a more dangerous texture, but if you are insistent on making a move, flat the flop and then give yourself more leverage on the turn/river.

[Blatch]

What you normally do with say 10/10 or JJ on the button in this situation?  WOuld you really flat call the £8 raise after other callers or would you re raise?

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

[TightEnd]

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called

As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass

[Blatch]

Also, most people at this standard of play do their balls on the triple barrel.  You knew you should give up on it, so wh didnt you?

As I explained in the OP, I had two unpalatable options on the river. Check it down and stand no chance of winning the pot with a considerable amount invested or fire again with little prospect of not being called

As explained to me subsequently this is because of combinations of a) bad flop play/reraise too small b) no shove on turn giving him a chance to pass

Ok when you say little prospect chance of being called how little do you think?

Was it about £80 you had left?  I cant remember the exact figure but: -

a) you check, you have 0% of winning pot but 100% of keeping 80 = £80 in hand

b) you bet £80 and have 10% chance making him fold = ES of £46

To make it a profitable play you need to be pretty certain you can get your opponent to fold about 17% of the time, which im not sure you can.