Priced in or do we pass for greater fold equity later on?

[davidhendrie]

90 player live tourament. 16 players left. Current stack of around 15k. Blinds 800 / 1600, Antes 150. We have not made any big mistakes and caught some good cards early on, but been inactive for a few levels and the blinds have caught up with us. Been looking for unopened spots to shove for the past couple of orbits but only managed it once, picking up the blinds. In the hand immediately preceeding this one the player to our left has pushed all in UTG and busted, so we are now on the big blind. The next level of blinds and antes commences in about 10 mins.

Villain goes all in for 5800 from mid-position and it folds round to us. We look down at 8 10 off. With the blind in we have just over 13k left and it's costing us 4200 to call to win a pot of nearly 14k. Villain has admitted to being card dead and shoved the previous orbit with A5, doubling up. We think he'll do this with any ace, any pair and probably any two face cards. We're getting more than two to one so we call. 

So, two options: we call, knowing we are almost certainly behind, leaving ourselves with 9k and ever diminishing fold equity for our shoves if we lose. Or pass, leaving us 13k.

Thoughts?

[GlasgowBandit]

Pass for me.  Would much rather be shoving T 8 than calling.

[jezza777]

Snap call with any 2.

[MC]

Snap call with any 2.

^^Agree

More than 3 to one? You're even getting the odds to call if you're dominated.

   Win: 26.34%  vs  Ah   Win: 71.35%   

[TheChipPrince]

Snap call with any 2.

Absolutely, only in bad shape against an overpair, no need to even look at your cards here...

[boldie]

Snap call with any 2.

this.

Though I understand the fold I would call here.

[LeKnave]

Snap call with any 2.

^^Agree

More than 3 to one? You're even getting the odds to call if you're dominated.

   Win: 26.34%  vs  Ah   Win: 71.35%   

only getting just over 2/1, 4200 into 9400.

fwiw i prob fold here.

[Numpty Dumpty]

i fold in this spot i think, though very very marginal.

at this point i would be shoving any two except small aces from middle position, any two from cut-off or button, and a wide range even UTG

however, a fair amount depends on the table - are they players who will play timidly and let you get away with pushing a couple of hands an orbit? if so, a definate pass. if they are good thinking players then maybe you have to call and take your chance

[MC]

Snap call with any 2.

^^Agree

More than 3 to one? You're even getting the odds to call if you're dominated.

   Win: 26.34%  vs  Ah   Win: 71.35%   

only getting just over 2/1, 4200 into 9400.

fwiw i prob fold here.

My bad, I just went on this statement "it's costing us 4200 to call to win a pot of nearly 14k"

Didn't think about that including the call!

[gatso]

lol @ this being an atc snap, anyone calling blind here needs to sober up

first thing I'm going to do here is look at my cards. second thing is pass

[davidhendrie]

LeKnave has it: decision based on getting just over two to one on a call. Sorry for the confusion in describing the total pot (that is, including the call) as 14k - I never seem to word it quite right.  Does that turn it into a fold for most folk then or would anyone still call with any two?

Not a snap call on my part by any means, but the way I thought about it was that if my 35% chance came through I would be up to slightly over 20k, a fair bit closer to the chip average, a stack that I can use to use to go over the top of the standard raise, and generally able to wait just that little bit longer for decent spots. Losing the hand would not significantly change my only future action from that arising from a fold (shoving all in for either 6BB or 9BB), although obviously it would diminish my fold equity.  The table was a mix of more passive players who could fold, thinking players that know I'm shoving with a wide range, and looser players who will call with anything half-decent. My feeling was broadly that the difference in my stack size is primarily going to effect the decisions of that middle group and much less so the others. I was motivated to call because my present stack was of no use after a raise, and for the past orbit a combination of the other short stacks shoving and larger stacks raising meant I was frozen out, and I'd rather call for a quarter of my stack getting two to one than effectively min-raise a medium or big stack with my jack six off (or whatever) for all my chips. If another orbit passed where I couldn't find a spot to shove I'd be in a similar-ish spot anyway. I understand the fold, and maybe with more tournament experience I would have made it, but that was the thinking behind the call.
 

[MC]

General rule is, any non-pair hand is at least 2 to 1 against any other non-pair hand that doesn't involve being dominated.

I fold any junk hands here for sure, but I think I might find a call with T8, a good chance it's live.