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Karabiner
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« on: February 18, 2009, 06:28:47 PM » |
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In the USPGA tour event at Riviera this week where he has won previously and came third the last time he played the event in 2007, Ernie Els is currently trading on BF @40 which I personally consider to be enormous.
Big Ernie has been struggling lately with the putter but over his career I have always considered him to be well above average with the short stick which means that it's only a matter of time before he gets it right again. I must say that in the first event of the year his swing looked as good if not better than ever and I was surprised to see him fade so badly.
I think he's bound to win again soon and why not here where he's won before. Gogogogogo Ernie !
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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matt674
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2009, 07:33:14 PM » |
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gone for D.J. Trahan and Charley Hoffman - both at 65's Trahan has had the best "under the radar" start with 5 cuts made from 5 starts, 4 top 25's and 2 top 10's Hoffman has made his best start to a season with 4 cuts from 4 starts, 4 top 25's and 2 top 10's including a loss in a playoff to Kenny Perry in Scottsdale (backed him for that tourney so i reckon he owes me one!  ) both should give a good run for your money |
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chrisbruce
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2009, 10:57:33 AM » |
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Big value is to be had all over the USPGA at the mo as the field has never been so wide open.
Every week a different winner and no one player shining out.
Vijay Singh @ 48
Geoff Ogilvey @ 34
are my picks
Rumours abound that Tiger will be back soon ...lets hope so
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matt674
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2009, 10:53:53 PM » |
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been looking at the matchplay this week and now that the odds are pushed out slightly for everyone else with Tiger's return there may be a couple of value bets here. First one is Matthew Goggin, has a tough first match against Kenny Perry but if he can come thru that then there is a chance he can get all the way to the final of his bracket. The number 1 seed in this bracket is Sergio and with him being in the other half of the bracket fingers crossed he gets knocked out in the early rounds to leave the path clear. Currently 200/1 on betfair, 150/1 e/w on various other sites
Also backed Luke Donald who is in Vijay Singh and Phil Mickleson's bracket - Vijay has yet to turn up for 2009 and even with a win last week for Phil his game is hardly convincing at the moment. Donald has been consistent so far this year so hopefully steady will see him progress - took 40/1 each way on Stan James.
Charles Howell III and Matt Jones for a bit of interest in the Mayakoba
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Karabiner
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2009, 11:07:10 PM » |
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I wouldn't touch Vijay with a bargepole at present, imo he is bound to be distracted by his sponsor's(Stanford) travails, all the more so if he has invested heavily with him as would seem fairly likely.
I've backed Andres Romero @ 80 as his draw looks kind and he's the player I would least like to meet at matchplay, he holes absolutely everything and hits it a country mile.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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matt674
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2009, 11:13:12 PM » |
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That was the one bracket i didn't want to touch with a bargepole - Kim, Choi, Stenson, Love III, Furyk and Harrington all winners recently with only Harrington seemingly out of form at the moment - tough group
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Karabiner
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« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2009, 11:37:29 PM » |
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TBH Matt I consider these matchplay events to be minimum investment opportunites and I just look for value prices.
I do take the draw into consideration but when the first few rounds are 18 hole sprints as opposed to 72 hole strokeplay events I think that most form goes out of the window, so I look for different angles, actually I used to bet on all of the outsiders on every match in the first round in the first year or so and showed a decent profit, I still think that might be profitable.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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matt674
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« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2009, 11:54:20 PM » |
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me too - hence bet on Goggin. Good thing about Matchplay is you can back a player who plays badly and still progresses provided his one opponent plays worse - a good recipe for an upset  |
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Karabiner
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2009, 03:29:27 PM » |
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I'm also on Ji-Yai Shin who is 16/1 for this week's Honda LPGA event in Thailand as I feel that too is a huge price.
But folks should be aware that she played terribly last time out two weeks ago in Hawaii when missing the cut.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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ACE2M
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2009, 02:24:49 PM » |
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it's a course for good drivers and good long iron players, i'm on westwood.
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matt674
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2009, 07:42:15 PM » |
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weeeee - it took 5 birdies in 17 holes and Perry to bogey 17 to give Goggin a 2&1 victory, already its looking like there are a few other upsets brewing in this bracket and while it'll be another tough match tomorrow against Paul Casey i think another repeat of todays performance will see him progress to the last 16.
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ACE2M
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2009, 11:29:34 PM » |
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damn it, i had rose to beat boo, 3 down through 5, 2 up through 14 and loses on the last. threw it away rather than getting outplayed which makes it all the more annoying.
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Matt50
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« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2009, 01:09:56 PM » |
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2nd Round Bets:
Els to beat Stricker @ 1.96
Mahan to beat McIlroy @ 1.98
OHair to beat Weekley @ 2.02
Should all be 1.7 - 1.8 IMO based on yesterdays performances
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2009, 02:35:17 PM » |
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I'm also on Ji-Yai Shin who is 16/1 for this week's Honda LPGA event in Thailand as I feel that too is a huge price.
But folks should be aware that she played terribly last time out two weeks ago in Hawaii when missing the cut.
Did she not play this Ralph or am I going mad? |
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Josedinho
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2009, 03:25:35 PM » |
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47th 3 over first round. Leader is 6 under
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