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Poker Hand Analysis
What do we do now - & why?
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Topic: What do we do now - & why? (Read 12719 times)
EvilPie
Hero Member
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Posts: 14241
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #30 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM »
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #31 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:38:00 PM »
If we describe Marcus as...lively, tricky, & busy, his range is relatively wide...but calling UTG condenses it a bit. Anything from the bare big diamonds, A-Q, sets, over-pairs and the made flush all figure imo.
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tikay
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Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #32 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:39:52 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 11, 2009, 12:38:00 PM
If we describe Marcus as...lively, tricky, & busy, his range is relatively wide...but calling UTG condenses it a bit. Anything from the bare big diamonds, A-Q, sets, over-pairs
and the made flush
all figure imo.
If, hypothetically, he does have the made flush here, is there any way we can not do the lot here?
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
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(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #33 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:44:56 PM »
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:39:52 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 11, 2009, 12:38:00 PM
If we describe Marcus as...lively, tricky, & busy, his range is relatively wide...but calling UTG condenses it a bit. Anything from the bare big diamonds, A-Q, sets, over-pairs
and the made flush
all figure imo.
If, hypothetically, he does have the made flush here, is there any way we can not do the lot here?
No.
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
EvilPie
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Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #34 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:51:13 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 11, 2009, 12:38:00 PM
If we describe Marcus as...lively, tricky, & busy, his range is relatively wide...but calling UTG condenses it a bit. Anything from the bare big diamonds, A-Q, sets, over-pairs and the made flush all figure imo.
Marcus is lively and tricky but definitely not stupid.
He isn't often limping AQ utg unless there's a short stack somewhere and he's expecting a shove.
Sets definitely a possibility but I doubt a made flush. Can't see him limping suited connectors unless the table has been letting limps get through.
Maybe if Marcus has been aggro throughout he thinks that he might get a limp through with a suited ace as people will suspect a big hand and be wary. If that's the case we've been coolered because it's all going in if the turn doesn't bring another diamond.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
mondatoo
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Posts: 22503
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #35 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:52:57 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
WOW is his range really that small ?
BTW I think it's better the way you do it street by street,fwiw imo a lot of people are way to results orientated with how they say they'd play a hand once they've seen the outcome.
No way we're ever getting away from it on this flop, if we're coolered and beat so be it but v unlikely we are
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tikay
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Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #36 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:58:33 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on March 11, 2009, 12:52:57 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
WOW is his range really that small ?
BTW I think it's better the way you do it street by street
,fwiw imo a lot of people are way to results orientated with how they say they'd play a hand once they've seen the outcome.
No way we're ever getting away from it on this flop, if we're coolered and beat so be it but v unlikely we are
Thanks Mr Too.
I'll do the reveal later today, I gotta pop out now.
The way the hand played was a real eye-opener, & many of the replies on here, have been great. I've certainly picked up a few tweaks which will help me.
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All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
EvilPie
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14241
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #37 on:
March 11, 2009, 12:59:54 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on March 11, 2009, 12:52:57 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
WOW is his range really that small ?
To lead out that small yes I do. He thinks his hand is massive and is inviting a raise so that he can shove imo. I think we should be obliging him now.
Possibly factor in the other sets and a very small chance of suited diamonds but I'm definitely swaying to a big pair with a diamond.
Logged
Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
mondatoo
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22503
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #38 on:
March 11, 2009, 01:03:03 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:59:54 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on March 11, 2009, 12:52:57 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
WOW is his range really that small ?
To lead out that small yes I do. He thinks his hand is massive and is inviting a raise so that he can shove imo. I think we should be obliging him now.
Possibly factor in the other sets and a very small chance of suited diamonds but I'm definitely swaying to a big pair with a diamond.
Since your both notts regs i'm guessing u'd no his range better than me
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EvilPie
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 14241
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #39 on:
March 11, 2009, 01:04:07 PM »
Quote from: mondatoo on March 11, 2009, 01:03:03 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:59:54 PM
Quote from: mondatoo on March 11, 2009, 12:52:57 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:31:40 PM
Quote from: tikay on March 11, 2009, 12:26:09 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on March 11, 2009, 12:23:03 PM
I usually bet out around half the pot here but I don't mind the check either.
If it's checked round as long as we see a none diamond (which statistically we should) our lead out then looks far more like a steal attempt and much more likely to induce a raise.
Matt, what are you putting Marcus on here?
For Marcus to limp UTG. Assuming the tabke has been reasonably aggro as they usually are:-
AA or KK with the diamond. Possibly QQ.
If he has AA or KK without the diamong I expect him to bet out more.
WOW is his range really that small ?
To lead out that small yes I do. He thinks his hand is massive and is inviting a raise so that he can shove imo. I think we should be obliging him now.
Possibly factor in the other sets and a very small chance of suited diamonds but I'm definitely swaying to a big pair with a diamond.
Since your both notts regs i'm guessing u'd no his range better than me
I've been known to be wrong though. I have a feeling this could be one of those situations.
Logged
Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
MANTIS01
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6734
What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #40 on:
March 11, 2009, 01:05:03 PM »
Is limping with A-Q UTG stupid? I do it sometimes and i've seen Marcus do it sometimes...it's less stupid than limping UTG with A-rag cos they're sooted. Marcus has always had a strat where he likes to juice the pot when he's ahead and so you must put hands that beat you into the equation because he wouldn't slowplay a made flush vs 6 oppos. That said, it shows why we must play this hand to max the value from worse to make up for the times when he has coolered us.
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #41 on:
March 11, 2009, 01:12:05 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 11, 2009, 01:05:03 PM
Is limping with A-Q UTG stupid? I do it sometimes and i've seen Marcus do it sometimes...it's less stupid than limping UTG with A-rag cos they're sooted. Marcus has always had a strat where he likes to juice the pot when he's ahead and so you must put hands that beat you into the equation because he wouldn't slowplay a made flush vs 6 oppos. That said, it shows why we must play this hand to max the value from worse to make up for the times when he has coolered us.
If you're on a table where you're expecting 5 callers it's certainly not smart. If you're expecting a raise, fair enough but otherwise I don't really rate it.
If it's been a limpy table then we can probably add the suited connectors in to the equation as well. If it's been aggro then he's unlikely to limp with something he doesn't want to call a raise with. They're not really deep enough to be wasting chips looking to hit 2 pair, flushes and straights.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #42 on:
March 11, 2009, 01:26:19 PM »
checkraise is not a gr8 plan for u gramps. you are basically saying i have 2p+ as you are not active enough (usually) to have a wider range imo. just call and see what happens on the turn.
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Royal Flush
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Posts: 22690
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #43 on:
March 12, 2009, 04:24:51 AM »
Did i miss the flop action?
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GreekStein
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Re: What do we do now - & why?
«
Reply #44 on:
March 12, 2009, 11:31:31 AM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on March 11, 2009, 01:26:19 PM
checkraise is not a gr8 plan for u gramps. you are basically saying i have 2p+ as you are not active enough (usually) to have a wider range imo. just call and see what happens on the turn.
Doesn't Tikay have a problem with both options as any decent player will realise his range for either check-raising or leading out here from the sb into 6 limpers is prob 2p/sets&flushes - maybe at worst something like
?
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