What do we do now - & why?

[mondatoo]

I'm confused tikay

His range is AA,KK with diamonds, sets, two pairs, made flushes all of which he might well play the same way in this circumstance

You say you know of several players that can get off your hand here, presumably after he's come back over your check raise? Really?

You lead out, he raises.....given that range or similar how can you fold a made flush there?

You check raise, he pushes...for not a lot more how can you fold? He can have a bare big diamond just as often as a bigger made flush.

I've thought and thought and I, able to fold more weak-arsed than most, can't find a fold here under any post flop betting pattern unless you check, he checks the nuts and the turn brings another diamond

Nothing to do with ego that, but I think you're being too hard on yourself/results orientated suggesting you can find a pass

Not at all.

We are analysing a poker hand - that's why it's on the Poker Hand Analysis Board.

I Posted it for a bunch of reasons, as I previously explained.......

1) I thought Marcus played it well, & "interestingly".

2) He played it so deceptively that almost everyone on here who tried to guess his hand got it wrong. So that was educational, yes?

3) GreekStein, who I chatted with that night, said his game had improved leaps & bounds because of threads like this on blonde PHA, & this encouraged me to Post this.

As to my "ability" to Pass, well I won't argue with anyone - I well know that conventional thinking is that we have to stack off here. But I theorised that we do NOT have to stack off here. And we don't - but that's just an opinion, & something to ponder.
 

You seem to be missing the point, that ability your reffering to would make you an absoulute donk to fold on that flop if someone isn't fist pump shoving when you get all his chips in on the flop then they should stop playing.The fact he had us is irrelelvant and as said by kin he didn't really fold many since Axd was said to be part of his range,also Axs limp utg is just tez imo

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Haha, stop posting please. This is a clear level.

[mondatoo]

Haha, stop posting please. This is a clear level.

LOL,most likely

[MANTIS01]

I advocated betting out with our flush, so by that rationale I say Marcus played his hand well. His starting stack suggests he's dropped a few chips and so bets out here for value vs players that can't pass (like pig man). This is typical Marcus strat actually cos he likes to pot build when he has it. But there's a world of difference between piggy and us in this example. I agree totally with Kin etc cos it's ok to KNOW part of his range beats us (I said made flushes were possible as did many others) but still commit anyway...isn't this what we do every time we don't have the absolute nuts? I've seen Marcus donk chips sometimes...we all donk chips sometimes...so Tikay-strat only holds up if Marcus/anyone never donks chips. To pass you have to say 100% of the time his range is less than 2% of hands...and that is Nostradamus poker imo.

Thanks for posting the hand thou Tony. Good discussion. Didn't like being told that getting it in here is conventional thinking thou. Lord knows I hate conventional thinking. Maybe we can find a fold afterall hmmm....

[GreekStein]

Hi Tikay,

You were definitely right that reading the PHA board has helped certain aspects of my game. Once you get over taking the Flushy beratement for the first time its much easier to use the facility for what it is - a great learning and discussion resource.

I hope you don't mind that I'm going to try and hi-jack the thread a little bit...

The fact that Marcus open limped into the pot utg makes this whole discussion most interesting because everyone has a different opinion on what his range could and should be.

My game is 6-max cash online so utg limping is not something you see very often at all and I certainly don't think is good play in this game. It's either too exploitable or your hand is too face up.

However, in a 10-handed live tournament is limping UTG with this hand going to be +EV in the long term assuming our table is neither particularly great or bad?

I never quite know how to react to someone limping UTG in a tournament. Say I pick up AJ or AQ in the cutoff I'm never quite sure what to do.

[daviebhoy]

I am finding it surprising that people think playing Axs UTG is bad ? Does everyone think a limp UTG means a pocket pair or AK and thats it ? If you only play those hands UTG then how do you expect to get action on them ?

[Longy]

I am finding it surprising that people think playing Axs UTG is bad ? Does everyone think a limp UTG means a pocket pair or AK and thats it ? If you only play those hands UTG then how do you expect to get action on them ?

I have less of a problem raising axs utg which is what i would do with ak. Though short of flopping a flush what do you want to see in a multiway pot, it is a hand that has reverse implied odds and i would be surprised if anyone will show a long term profit from limping this hand utg.

[EvilPie]

So now the discussion comes to whether limping utg with a suited ace is a good move.

I would suggest that on a table where you are likely to get 5 callers it isn't bad at all. It's no worse that set mining imo although obviously the odds against hitting are higher so you need greater implied odds.

Even if you are facing a raise it's still not bad if the raise is likely to be small compared to your stack and you are going to get plenty of others in the pot.

Does someone know the odds against flopping a flush or flopping a flush draw?

I would think that a nut flush draw is the best we can realistically hope for and sets up a very nice semi bluff if it comes.

The hand is obviously easy to get away from if we miss so the potential upside maybe isn't so bad.

It all depends on the make up of the table. We can't be doing it if we are going to face a raise and end up heads up. That would be terrible as even if we hit the chance of being paid is next to nothing.

So I guess if Marcus was the one doing most of the raising and he knows that the table is made up of limpers he is justified in limping this hand. He doesn't want to raise with it as he knows he can't call a reraise. He also knows that if there is a raise before it gets back to him there are likely to be 4, 5 or even 6 players in a pot which is easy for him to play.

He is never likely to face tough decisions with his hand so maybe his limp wasn't as bad as some (including myself) have suggested.

[daviebhoy]

I have less of a problem raising axs utg which is what i would do with ak. Though short of flopping a flush what do you want to see in a multiway pot, it is a hand that has reverse implied odds and i would be surprised if anyone will show a long term profit from limping this hand utg.

Thats not the reason to play it though. You play it to make more money on your big hands from UTG. I would tend to raise with it aswell but on a passive limpy table I don't see much wrong with limping A5s UTG some of the time.

[MANTIS01]

Limping with A-x UTG is usually pretty bad at a standard table cos your hand can't stand a raise, you'll be oop in the hand, and if you hit you'll prob lose. However a suited A at a table described as...everyone splashing around in pots, often 6 or 7 handed....has got pretty good implied odds about it. You're drawing to the nuts and the nuts will prob get you paid from multi-directions...so playing the hand is justifiable. A lot of players want to GET INTO a tournament early on so Marcus wont do this later on imo...also he's lost a few chips and this makes you inclined to gamble a bit light.

[Longy]

I have less of a problem raising axs utg which is what i would do with ak. Though short of flopping a flush what do you want to see in a multiway pot, it is a hand that has reverse implied odds and i would be surprised if anyone will show a long term profit from limping this hand utg.

Thats not the reason to play it though. You play it to make more money on your big hands from UTG. I would tend to raise with it aswell but on a passive limpy table I don't see much wrong with limping A5s UTG some of the time.

Balancing my range at a live table where i am going to play very few hands, is really not necessary imo. It literally takes 100's of hands online playing with someone to feel the need to balance my range against regs who are good enough to adjust.

[daviebhoy]

Balancing my range at a live table where i am going to play very few hands, is really not necessary imo. It literally takes 100's of hands online playing with someone to feel the need to balance my range against regs who are good enough to adjust.

I understand what you are saying. It is situation dependant and and in the one described I think the limp is fine. If he is lucky enough to be able to limp with AA in the next orbit UTG his hand will be well disguised and he is more likely to be raised next time so the effect on meta-game still applies even though we are only playing a relatively small amount of hands at this table.

[mondatoo]

limping utg with a5s is shit play FACT imo, mbn to flop the nuts but most of time no matter what the flop is you haven't got a clue were u are and your oop,so anyone who thinks this is a good play needs to re-assess there own game  imo table dynamics don't justfy this play again imo

[NoflopsHomer]

Is this whole thread a level??

If you don't stack off here I think its worse than stacking off!

I've never agreed with a post more.

I know this is a hero fold, but seriously Tikay I believe you're always losing money here in the long term.

We don't HAVE to stack-off here - we don't. In fact, if Marcus had me covered, (he did not) I woulda played this hand totally differently. I would have let go quite early. Marcus knows I'm a nit, & when he re-raised me, I shoulda realised the score, knew he knew, so to speak. It was a bad play by me.

I know almost all of you will say/.have said, "no, we have to do our chips here" - but we don't.

Several said "it's a cooler" I disagree. We can win, or cash in, Tourneys, by Passing, just as well as by getting all gung-ho every time there is a confrontation. There are much, much, softer situations available later. Ego is a big -ev factor. "I'm Billy Big Dick, I'm not Passing" costs so many people their Tourney lives. We give up too way too easily, omo.

Ego has nothing to do with it, we have a hand that beats the vast majority of his pushing range. It's not ego, it's simple mathematics and I think you're confusing many players' confident aggressive style for simple arrogance when they don't fold here when you do. They may well be arrogant, that's for sure but they're usually the biggest winners.

FWIW, Alex Martin's idea of how to play the hand is probably best imo.


Plus you always have the backdoor straight flush....

[iorek]

Only heard about this thread over the weekend and like the way you dripped out the info.

I know I need to lose a few pounds Tony but I wasn't sat quite as close to you as you remember. You were in seat 8 and I was in seat 3 and there were 2 limpers in the pot before me, although that doesn't change the post flop action.

Did I really Hollywood it up that much? 

Cheers,

Marcus.