Is my reasoning sound?

[Pyso]

Live Cash game , £0.50/£1

My image is tight. Have been card dead all night. Loose table full of calling stations, really need some sort of hand to go to war with. Eight players dealt a hand.

Have been playing with a reduced stack because I want to try it before I knock it and also I want to save my funds for the crazy Norwegians next week.

At the start of the hand I have £48, not having had time to top back up to £70 which is the short stacking figure I had decided on before I started.

My opponent has not long been sat down. His stack is £45.50.

I am UTG and see 

I raise to £6 and get two callers, one of whom is my opponent in early position.


The flop is 

I lead out for £12, opponent re-raises all-in to £39.50. Other player gets out of the way.

Now my reasoning is as follows and I would like some opinions as to whether it was sound please..


I think he is bluffing - 0 % (given both our stack sizes)

I think he has a set - 25 % chance (given the way he played pre-flop, the way most people would play a set with the flush draw on the flop and the Ace also(which he is likely to put me on))

I think he has two pair - 15% chance (given the call from early position with players to act behind, A,6 or 4,6 seem less likely)

I think he has a flush draw - 30% chance (at this level short stackers routinely shove all in on flush draws)

I think he has a flush and straight draw - 5% chance (I am behind to this but have the odds to call anyway)

I think he has a worse ace - 20% chance (I have no evidence yet to suggest he is weak enough to overvalue a weak ace but at £0.50/£1 they usually are)

I think he has an under pair to my aces but an over pair to the board - 5% chance (a decent pair would have raised preflop and the ace, given my preflop strength, would surely scare him away, especially given my image, although of course in his eyes I don't have one yet)


I make the call being given 3.3 to 1 with two cards to come and he flips over 4,6 offsuit for bottom two pair. Ignoring the fact that I think his call, for a sixth of his stack with players to act behind and into my puny stack also, sucks really badly, is my percentage breakdown reasonable?

Thanks for any opinions

[paulhouk03]

Live Cash game , £0.50/£1

My image is tight. Have been card dead all night. Loose table full of calling stations, really need some sort of hand to go to war with. Eight players dealt a hand.

Have been playing with a reduced stack because I want to try it before I knock it and also I want to save my funds for the crazy Norwegians next week.

At the start of the hand I have £48, not having had time to top back up to £70 which is the short stacking figure I had decided on before I started.

My opponent has not long been sat down. His stack is £45.50.

I am UTG and see 

I raise to £6 and get two callers, one of whom is my opponent in early position.


The flop is 

I lead out for £12, opponent re-raises all-in to £39.50. Other player gets out of the way.

Now my reasoning is as follows and I would like some opinions as to whether it was sound please..


I think he is bluffing - 0 % (given both our stack sizes)

I think he has a set - 25 % chance (given the way he played pre-flop, the way most people would play a set with the flush draw on the flop and the Ace also(which he is likely to put me on))

I think he has two pair - 15% chance (given the call from early position with players to act behind, A,6 or 4,6 seem less likely)

I think he has a flush draw - 30% chance (at this level short stackers routinely shove all in on flush draws)

I think he has a flush and straight draw - 5% chance (I am behind to this but have the odds to call anyway)

I think he has a worse ace - 20% chance (I have no evidence yet to suggest he is weak enough to overvalue a weak ace but at £0.50/£1 they usually are)

I think he has an under pair to my aces but an over pair to the board - 5% chance (a decent pair would have raised preflop and the ace, given my preflop strength, would surely scare him away, especially given my image, although of course in his eyes I don't have one yet)


I make the call being given 3.3 to 1 with two cards to come and he flips over 4,6 offsuit for bottom two pair. Ignoring the fact that I think his call, for a sixth of his stack with players to act behind and into my puny stack also, sucks really badly, is my percentage breakdown reasonable?

Thanks for any opinions

over pair to the board?
i dont think ur break down is that reasonable.
personally i would think two pair>weak ace>combo draw>flush>set
i dont think he would ever have a set here

i assume ur playing at dtd

tptk to a half stack is the nuts at 50p1£
i would never fold this and ur getting almost 2-1 on hitting ur k or ace or what ever comes out on the turn to pair up.

pretty standard really

[Nem]

This is an instant call for 45bb's on that board every time.

/thread

[gatso]

This is an instant call for 45bb's on that board every time.

this

you're waaaaaaaay overcomplicating matters. just put your chips in

also

At the start of the hand I have £48, not having had time to top back up to £70 which is the short stacking figure I had decided on before I started.

70xBB is not shortstacking. you're giving yourself the most difficult to play stack size possible. either play deep or shallow

[GreekStein]

I think your % estimations are slightly wrong though obviously it's impossible to put correct figures on these.

I would say there's a higher % chance than you mentioned that he has a flush draw or a worse ace than you anticipated and a smaller chance with his stack that he has a set as he has to get more marginal hands in here.

FWIW playing 70bigs as a start is gonna be a nightmare - too much to play a proper short stack strat and not enough to play down the streets.

[Longy]

This is an instant call for 45bb's on that board every time.

/thread

This, if i had a heart attack at the table, I would make sure my chips were in the pot before calling for the ambulance.

Fwiw your harrington-esque breakdown is flawed, no way he has a set more than a weaker ace in this spot.

[StuartHopkin]

Wow!

This is a complete snap his arm off situation.
No need to be worrying this much at the DTD .50/1
I honestly think your estimations are miles off i think he flips over the bare 4 or 6 a lot!

I would guess that less than 5% of the players at that level worry about the equity of their calls pre flop.
They like to get involved in everything and then play it badly after the flop.

Ive been playing a bit more cash over the past couple of weeks and where I am having problems is adjusting to people calling bets which I would regard to be complete madness.
I lost two £200 pots last night, one guy called my £30 reraise on the flop with bottom pair the other was about the same with his back door flush draw.
GG guys, these calls dont come into my thought process, because I know they arent worth making when to win the £50 i have left back, theyre going to be added in though now.

Agree with Gatso to, £70 isnt short, its a weird in the middle number.
Short stacked is playin £40 and playing fold/shove.
Personally I dont see why a player of your standard, with such poor opponents would think of playing anything less than the full stack. Losing value imo.

[Pyso]

Thanks all. As is often the case when posting, you kind of know the answers you will get before you actually do.

I know £70 was a weird number to begin with but to be honest I spent a bit of time proper shortstacking with around £40 just to see what it was like. I normally play a full stack and keep it topped up. This has reminded me why.

I did insta-call, well it took me 15 seconds, but I was always going to - please don't think I was ever folding!!.
I think my breakdown (and I wasn't particularly doing it in awe of Action Dan, lol) was a bit out (which is why I posted) but mainly because at this level it is SO easy to outhink yourself, precisely because your useless opponentns don't do any thinking at all.

I wonder why the replies are so sure he doesn't have a set here? With hindsight if he is clueless enough to call off a sixth of his stack in early position against a similar stack (i.e. with no implied odds at all) with 4,6 offsuit,  then why not with pocket fours or sixes and then play it fast, which he is pretty much forced to do anyway from the flop once I lead out?

Or is it a case of overthinking it for my opponents?

[StuartHopkin]

Thanks all. As is often the case when posting, you kind of know the answers you will get before you actually do.

I know £70 was a weird number to begin with but to be honest I spent a bit of time proper shortstacking with around £40 just to see what it was like. I normally play a full stack and keep it topped up. This has reminded me why.

I did insta-call, well it took me 15 seconds, but I was always going to - please don't think I was ever folding!!.
I think my breakdown (and I wasn't particularly doing it in awe of Action Dan, lol) was a bit out (which is why I posted) but mainly because at this level it is SO easy to outhink yourself, precisely because your useless opponentns don't do any thinking at all.

I wonder why the replies are so sure he doesn't have a set here? With hindsight if he is clueless enough to call off a sixth of his stack in early position against a similar stack (i.e. with no implied odds at all) with 4,6 offsuit,  then why not with pocket fours or sixes and then play it fast, which he is pretty much forced to do anyway from the flop once I lead out?

Or is it a case of overthinking it for my opponents?

Its just not going to be a set that often i think.
If he does have it its unlucky but you shouldnt be worrying about it.
Comes back to the old sayin, do you sleep with the light on just incase aliens come and change your carpet for razor blades............

[thetank]

Its just not going to be a set that often i think.
If he does have it its unlucky but you shouldnt be worrying about it.
Comes back to the old sayin, do you sleep with the light on just incase aliens come and change your carpet for razor blades............

I usually wake up around 3pm so this isn't a problem.

[gatso]

why can't you just check the floor for razorblades when you wake up? surely there's no need to have the light on all night

[StuartHopkin]

why can't you just check the floor for razorblades when you wake up? surely there's no need to have the light on all night

Its all about catching the aliens in the act?
Because i have big thick curtains?

I dont frickin know, someone once said it on here and Ive never forgot it!
Go and ask him!


.

[kinboshi]

I want to know why aliens would bother doing that in the first place?  Surely they'd find something more fun to do - like abduct people and stick things in orifices?

[StuartHopkin]

I want to know why aliens would bother doing that in the first place?  Surely they'd find something more fun to do - like abduct people and stick things in orifices?

Your fantasies past should be kept private.

[paulhouk03]

why can't you just check the floor for razorblades when you wake up? surely there's no need to have the light on all night

Its all about catching the aliens in the act?
Because i have big thick curtains?

I dont frickin know, someone once said it on here and Ive never forgot it!
Go and ask him!


.

who is it?