DEAL OR NO DEAL

[Cf]

To be fair the last two were:

£3,000/£250,000 - Offer £45,000
1p/£250,000 - Offer £19,000

I'd have got the £250k in both of those...

On the offer maybe, though would you have swapped boxes??

Isn't there a stats model which favours the swap with two in play? (Having googled this, all I come up with is the Monty Hall problem which isn't directly relevant... )

Swapping is has no effect on your EV.

You have a 1/22 chance of selecting the £250k as your box.

You have a 1/22 chance of the last box on the wings being the £250k.

At 2-box if it's still in play there's a 50% chance it's in your box and 50% chance it's on the wings.

The Monty Hall problem works because the host always opens the wrong door leaving the top prize in play with 2 to open.

[EvilPie]

To be fair the last two were:

£3,000/£250,000 - Offer £45,000
1p/£250,000 - Offer £19,000

I'd have got the £250k in both of those...

On the offer maybe, though would you have swapped boxes??

Isn't there a stats model which favours the swap with two in play? (Having googled this, all I come up with is the Monty Hall problem which isn't directly relevant... )

The stats model is where you select 1 out of 3.

Statistically the one you pick is probably the wrong one as you're 2 to 1

When one of the others which definitely doesn't have it is removed the one that's left should have it hence you should swap.

When you're down to the last 3 at DOND I don't see why it should be any different.

[Cf]

To be fair the last two were:

£3,000/£250,000 - Offer £45,000
1p/£250,000 - Offer £19,000

I'd have got the £250k in both of those...

On the offer maybe, though would you have swapped boxes??

Isn't there a stats model which favours the swap with two in play? (Having googled this, all I come up with is the Monty Hall problem which isn't directly relevant... )

The stats model is where you select 1 out of 3.

Statistically the one you pick is probably the wrong one as you're 2 to 1

When one of the others which definitely doesn't have it is removed the one that's left should have it hence you should swap.

When you're down to the last 3 at DOND I don't see why it should be any different.

Because the eliminated boxes on DOND aren't pre-determined. The Monty Hall problem ALWAYS leaves the winning box behind. DOND does not.

It really is as simple as there are 2 boxes left. One contains one value. One contains the other. It's 50/50 as to which.

[EvilPie]

The stats model is where you select 1 out of 3.

Statistically the one you pick is probably the wrong one as you're 2 to 1

When one of the others which definitely doesn't have it is removed the one that's left should have it hence you should swap.

When you're down to the last 3 at DOND I don't see why it should be any different.

Because the eliminated boxes on DOND aren't pre-determined. The Monty Hall problem ALWAYS leaves the winning box behind. DOND does not.

It really is as simple as there are 2 boxes left. One contains one value. One contains the other. It's 50/50 as to which.

The fact that you can't select your own box obviously fucks it up some what as well.

You're 2 to 1 with 3 boxes left but you can can only choose from 2 of the boxes.

[Cf]

The stats model is where you select 1 out of 3.

Statistically the one you pick is probably the wrong one as you're 2 to 1

When one of the others which definitely doesn't have it is removed the one that's left should have it hence you should swap.

When you're down to the last 3 at DOND I don't see why it should be any different.

Because the eliminated boxes on DOND aren't pre-determined. The Monty Hall problem ALWAYS leaves the winning box behind. DOND does not.

It really is as simple as there are 2 boxes left. One contains one value. One contains the other. It's 50/50 as to which.

The fact that you can't select your own box obviously fucks it up some what as well.

You're 2 to 1 with 3 boxes left but you can can only choose from 2 of the boxes.

Not sure on what point you're trying to make...?

(You sort of can choose your box btw. If in the first round you mention there's one you'd rather have he'll usually offer you the swap instead of an opening offer)

[gatso]

2 boxes with unknown amounts in. obv it's an even money shot, can't possibly be anything else. swapping makes no difference

if the banker has knowledge of the contents then things are different but he doesn't so they're not. simples

[craigbetts]

2 boxes with unknown amounts in. obv it's an even money shot, can't possibly be anything else. swapping makes no difference

if the banker has knowledge of the contents then things are different but he doesn't so they're not. simples

I thought the banker knew the amounts within each box???

Either way, I do not buy the 50/50 shot, I have wasted the odd hour in the past day or so researching various forums which argue both cases.

This is not 'simples'!

[Cf]

It really is that simple. 2 unknown values. 2 boxes.

The banker doesn't know what's in the boxes. Only the IA knows and she doesn't tell him.

[craigbetts]

It really is that simple. 2 unknown values. 2 boxes.

The banker doesn't know what's in the boxes. Only the IA knows and she doesn't tell him.

Cool, I was not 100% on the banker knowing, thanks for putting me right!!

Still not buying the simples though. My head hurts!

[gatso]

there are 2 boxes one contains x and one contains y. no-one knows which is which

50% chance of x, 50% chance of y

how is that not simples?

do you have more chance of winning a coin flip if you change your call while it's in flight? that's the exact same thing as thinking you've got more chance of winning the big money by changing boxes

[Cf]

A lot of people won't buy that the banker doesn't know. But I find it a similar argument to online poker being rigged: they could cheat if they wanted to but there's no reason for them to do so.

[AndrewT]

Silly mare was playing today.

At the end, the 2 boxes were £10k and £250k.

The banker offers her £140k!!!

I've never seen him offer more than EV before.

She said no deal!

She willingly bet £130k to win £110k on an even money shot.

She went home with £10k.

[  ] wp madam

[titaniumbean]

Silly mare was playing today.

At the end, the 2 boxes were £10k and £250k.

The banker offers her £140k!!!

I've never seen him offer more than EV before.

She said no deal!

She willingly bet £130k to win £110k on an even money shot.

She went home with £10k.

[  ] wp madam

This is the beauty of this show. It makes me happy

[OverTheBorder]

Silly mare was playing today.

At the end, the 2 boxes were £10k and £250k.

The banker offers her £140k!!!

I've never seen him offer more than EV before.

She said no deal!

She willingly bet £130k to win £110k on an even money shot.

She went home with £10k.

[  ] wp madam

This is the beauty of this show. It makes me happy

I know but how do you factor her husbands dream into the mathematical odds!    I cant believe she turned it down! madness! Good TV though lol

[Girgy85]

How could the £250k be in box 7 two shows on the trot?? I was posative once she no dealt that she was gonna be the 4th.