losing faith in the maths - must read!

[Dino]

Everyone goes through these runs from time to time - AND the opposite!

  are you talking about "play the presenter" this week,I know they pick the best hands to show, but did you lose a race all night ?

[ripple11]

Im not saying i think the site is rigged but i think there is an outside chance of there being a glitch in their software. As for these sites not being rigged, we only have to look at large companys that have defrauded the public for millions.

Who knows, i think the 'online rigged' debate will never go away. iI have played on all the other sites and only experienced this on the one site

You missed my question Mr Ezzo.

Why would the site "fix it" for you to lose? What exactly would be their motive?.......

NB - You did say it was a "respected" Site, so we are assuming it's not UB or AB.

As for the guy who had QQ 7 times in a night, it happens. I had AA 7 times at Luton one night last week, & I can go weeks without seeing AA.

I just love these conspiracy theorists - but they still play Online!

Have you ever had a pair of Queens seven times in a night?

Only in Brighton

[tikay]

Everyone goes through these runs from time to time - AND the opposite!

  are you talking about "play the presenter" this week,I know they pick the best hands to show, but did you lose a race all night ?

Lol.

Yes, I did actually. My 5k starting stack was 1,800 after 2 levels, when my AA & KK both got busted, & I made the Final with 3 x Big Blinds! So I needed to win my Races. And boy oh boy, I did.

For the last 3 hours, I never had more than 8 x Big Blinds. I'd be good if I could play a short-stack.......

[ScottMGee]

Its just plain old variance, I have lost something like 10 SNGs on the bounce now, mostly with my chips in good!

A couple of examples.

J9 losing to AA with all chips in on an xJ9 board, Turn 3, River 3!
AQo losing to AJo all in pre-flop, AJ makes a flush!

You have to remember its just badl luck or varience and try not to chuck your laptop out the window!

[Jim-D]

 and try not to chuck your laptop out the window!

Hardest thing in the world to do at times...

[JungleCat03]

I see a pattern in the numbers.

You keep losing flip situations.

The answer to this is simple...stop getting in flips.

Try to pick spots where you are 40-60,30-70,20-80 etc...these are the golden ratios. There's even a few 10-90s out there if you look hard.

7-4 is a great hand, was always my favourite hand, even pre blonde(!), and the blonde collective have backed up my faith in this weapon of mass destruction.

Also, another tip is to find spots where you aren't showing down hands. There are tons of these.

Good luck with this. Also remember PMA. Thinking you're going to win is important, it helps you play more positively generally and helps you identify those crucial 30-70 situations more easily.

[MANTIS01]

I think this sort of run is down to bad karma, so it's pointless telling op it's just a passing phase. op has clearly courted the wrath of the poker gods and he needs to do something about it quick. You can invite a bad karma run through excessive drug-taking, cruelty to animals or general negative thought. It is unlikely you're taking drugs because you wouldn't really care enough to post. But if you are, try and take a break. Think really hard about what you've done to piss someone off lately, never do it again, and buy your wife a bunch of flowers. Next time you log-on the problem will be solved as you will now win about 50% of all flips.

[ezzo]

i have been breaking the legs of stray giraffes. This might have something to do with it

[MC]

losing faith in the maths - must read!

FYP!

but welcome to the forum!...

[thetank]

This has been written to explain my experience with extreme variance. i hope people can draw from this some resolve for when they run worse than a hoofless beach donkey on an ice rink.

I make a living playing multi table sit n go's and believe completely in the maths. I do not believe in the whole 'poker is rigged' theory nor do i belive in the 'cash out curse' or any other tin pot theory. Nor am i nieve - i know big companys do and will defraud their clients (enron for example) but i still think that online poker, for the whole is based on ethical RnG systems that work

The following is only my experience and is up to others to decide if it is down to bad luck, variance or rigging. i already know what I think

So it begins last September after playing at one of the nets largest and most respected poker sites.

I played about 10 tornys and in each case, was knocked out when i was in a coin flip situation. To lose 10 crucial coin flips in a row (all of them allin pre flop) is nasty but happens all the time. Over the following week, i noticed that i couldnt win a single all in coin flip and so, i grabbed pen and paper by my desk and started to record all future coin flips. The criteria was that it had to be an all-in preflop situation and the cards had to be a pair versus overcards. These were the results throughout the following week.

ak v 77    lost
aq v 88   lost
88 v aj     lost
10 J v 22  lost
ak v 33     lost
qk v 55     lost
44 vs aq     lost
33 vs 9 10  lost
aj v 99       lost
a10 v 88     lost
33 vs ak     lost
66 vs j9     lost
ak v qq      lost
44 v 78      lost
ak v 99      Won
a9 v 55     lost
1010 v ak  lost
kq v 88   lost
66 v q9   lost
99 v aj   lost
ak v 44  lost
66 v a9  lost
99 v A10  lost
KQ v 22    lost
KQ v 44    lost
99 v KJ    lost
1010 v AJ  lost
AQ  v 1010  lost
88 v A9     lost

I emailed the poker site asking for some type of reassurance and they explained RnG and variance etc. I carried on and things went from bad to worse. Now my AA and KK couldnt hold up either

AA v 77  lost
ak v 55  lost
kk v99   lost
aa v qq  lost
99 v aj  lost

At my wits end, i decided that if it happened again, i would simply go to another site. I played the $100 freezout, grinded my way to the bubble, got it all in with 88 v Aj and obviously lost, had a few chips left so shoved 2 hands later with AK, go called by 44 and knew i was gonna lose and did.

Ive only posted a few samples about, the total tally was 57 coin flips with 2 wins

I still have faith in online poker but its hard, really hard to continue when this happens

Anyone else experienced this?

Yeah, I know where you're coming from.

You go through bad patches all the time, you think you know what variance means and then whump, the word goes and redefines itself on your ass and you're left thinking wtf.

Don't want to patronize you, but working on your game (by posting hands on hand analysis boards, brushing up on ICM, and watching instructional videos to name three methods) is a better use of your time that calculating how many races you lose in a row and wallowing in self pity.

You can't help the way the cards fall once all the chips go in the middle, so it's better to concentrate on the things you can do something about.



Think you're a bit barking e-mailing the site questioning it's RnG. Different people react in different ways though so I'll try not to judge too harshly.

Move to another site if you think the games are softer, the traffic is better, you can theres a good promo or rakeback deal you want to take advantage of, is the structure suits your game better, or if you just fancy a change.

Moving to another site because you think the last one (if it's a big respectable site) had a rigged RnG is fishy thinking though. Hope you snap out of it soon.

[tikay]

i have been breaking the legs of stray giraffes. This might have something to do with it

FFS, why did you not say that in the first place? Obviously the reason.

PS - Stick around, I think you'll fit in nicely here.

[thetank]

 and try not to chuck your laptop out the window!

Hardest thing in the world to do at times...

In the end, Keith Richards had to completely uninstall Party Poker

[tikay]

Ezzo,

Here's variance at work.

A pal of mine, Richard Oford, is doing a Bankroll Challenge. He began with £100, & was grinding away at low-limit cash.

Then he switched to £10 DYM's, & ran the £100 up to £400 quite quickly. He's nothing special, but he has the right basics.

Then, somehow, he lost 8 straight DYM's on the bounce. Eight! You only have to get top three of 6, & he lost 8 running. How can that happen to someone who knows basics, is solid, & profitable? But it did.

And then, on the back of that, he won 8 on the bounce, & 22 of the last 28. His £100 is now about £500.

Hang in there, & you'll be all right. Tank has it about right, in his missive. He's a VERY experienced SNG-er, & knows how many beans make five.

And ignore all this conspiracy theory nonsense, it will mess with your head a treat.

Never underestimate the power of luck, & variance.

Good Luck.

[maldini32]

Ezzo,

Here's variance at work.

A pal of mine, Richard Oford, is doing a Bankroll Challenge. He began with £100, & was grinding away at low-limit cash.

Then he switched to £10 DYM's, & ran the £100 up to £400 quite quickly. He's nothing special, but he has the right basics.

Then, somehow, he lost 8 straight DYM's on the bounce. Eight! You only have to get top three of 6, & he lost 8 running. How can that happen to someone who knows basics, is solid, & profitable? But it did.

And then, on the back of that, he won 8 on the bounce, & 22 of the last 28. His £100 is now about £500.

Hang in there, & you'll be all right. Tank has it about right, in his missive. He's a VERY experienced SNG-er, & knows how many beans make five.

And ignore all this conspiracy theory nonsense, it will mess with your head a treat.

Never underestimate the power of luck, & variance.

Good Luck.

[totalise]

must read? lol