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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
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Topic: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee (Read 13995 times)
LuckyLloyd
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Posts: 625
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #75 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:05:56 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 11:57:38 AM
This was a shove preflop. There is 13400 in the middle when it gets around to you which is 20% of your stack or thereabouts. The Venetian structures are deceptively quick and shallow. Yeah, it's been slow up to now but it speeds up significantly over the coming three hours or so. But, given that they are a "deepstack zomg" a shove here has a much higher chance of getting through. As American players will fold small pairs and decent aces behind the original raiser because they "can find a better spot". If you do get called, it will be from a 10BBish stack usually, but the amount of money in the middle is going to compensate for you chasing an Ace or deuce or more complicated dogging.
So ship, and the pot will usually be pushed to you after they the accumulated 3minutes of hollywooding they undertake.
In Celtic’s hand “top two in the sb” you posted about the importance of balancing your range when playing poker. Not a groundbreaking idea you said. So what if we bring the idea of range balancing to this situation. Do you ever shove a premium hand in this spot? Would you look down, see A-A, and ship 54k worth of chips into this pot? No you would not. In fact, considering your expectation is everyone folding, that would be an error anyway. So because you never balance your range when you shove the first mistake you encounter by shoving is to reveal you have a mediocre hand.
There is 20% of your stack out there and when we shove we can expect to win the pot a huge amount of the time. Yes, of course my range won't be perfectly balanced in this spot. But that concern is going to be outweighed by the fact that we are making a play that will carry the greatest expectation of value. With AA we could just raise to 7.5k or something because that would have the greatest value.
A spot like this is so weird (raise from EP and four callers into you) that balancing isn't a massive concern anyway. The other thread concerned a completely different (and incredibly common) situation where balance was a very important aspect of being able to extract value from weaker holdings.
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
The second mistake is to offer such attractive pot odds to the short-stacks believing the “deepstack” nature of the tournament will encourage them to fold and wait for better spots. The problem is with some of your oppos holding 10bb’s or less the “deepstack” idea is irrelevant. Those guys will be feeling a sense of urgency to get chips...and what better way than here? If you were in that spot holding A-10 or 7-7 (very realistic hands randoms have called with) would you fold and wait for a better spot? with those odds? knowing your oppo is weak? What better spot is there? It’s certainly not a good spot for you to be spewing your chips in hoping to hit a deuce or whatever. I don’t think your FE is anywhere near what you think it is.
Have you played these tournaments? Played against live American players much? They love folding and waiting for better spots in places they shouldn't. Hate getting it in preflop when they should, etc. How will they "know" we're weak? They'll talk themselves into believing we have JJ - 88 / AK - AQ anyway.
And in anycase, you're not thinking about the type of hands they would get into the pot there with 10BB stacks without raising and then snapcall us with when we shove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
705,469,248 games 0.032 secs 22,045,914,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.848% 34.27% 03.58% 241759112 25249106.00 { A2s }
Hand 1: 62.152% 58.57% 03.58% 413211924 25249106.00 { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }
With the overlay we'll receive we want the call. Also, the range of the second all - in will usually be so tight with these guys that they would have shipped it anyway already so we don't need to worry about multiple callers.
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
The third mistake is once you get called and table Ace-deuce your image will be LAG. Now considering your opinion is that this game is full of nits who’s mentality is “can find a better spot” and thus be pressured out of pots you really want to be building a solid image to errrr pressure them out of pots. By tabling a LAG image you now blow control at the table and get these villains thinking that better spot is vs you. So you sacrifice the best strat to win the game as a whole in order to gamble with this one individual hand alone. There’s loads of other stuff as well such as you better hope the original raiser doesn’t have premium and you don’t know the stack, styles etc of the other players.
Why should we be "hoping" the original raiser doesn't have a premium? Of course he could have a premium. He's playing a range of hands, a range that leaves him folding to this shove most of the time if he is as described. As for the rest, well, they play their cards. They always play their cards. It takes them forever to adjust, and when they do they usually have some sort of hand. We are nowhere near to the money. Our concern should be finding spots where we can expect to amass chips and add to our stack. Here is an opportunity to add 20% to it. You don't have to show when they all fold.
And if you get comments, etc, after the hand then so what? If it's a case of adjusting slightly tighter when it all has to go in that's fine. But no matter what they think of seeing A2soooted, they aren't going to suddenly fight you tooth and nail for every pot. It doesn't work that way (thankfully).
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Pushing is not good poker.
I disagree.
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LuckyLloyd
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #76 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:07:24 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on June 30, 2009, 03:22:05 PM
lol
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LuckyLloyd
Sr. Member
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Posts: 625
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #77 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:11:22 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on June 30, 2009, 03:50:37 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 11:57:38 AM
This was a shove preflop. There is 13400 in the middle when it gets around to you which is 20% of your stack or thereabouts. The Venetian structures are deceptively quick and shallow. Yeah, it's been slow up to now but it speeds up significantly over the coming three hours or so. But, given that they are a "deepstack zomg" a shove here has a much higher chance of getting through. As American players will fold small pairs and decent aces behind the original raiser because they "can find a better spot". If you do get called, it will be from a 10BBish stack usually, but the amount of money in the middle is going to compensate for you chasing an Ace or deuce or more complicated dogging.
So ship, and the pot will usually be pushed to you after they the accumulated 3minutes of hollywooding they undertake.
In Celtic’s hand “top two in the sb” you posted about the importance of balancing your range when playing poker. Not a groundbreaking idea you said. So what if we bring the idea of range balancing to this situation. Do you ever shove a premium hand in this spot? Would you look down, see A-A, and ship 54k worth of chips into this pot? No you would not. In fact, considering your expectation is everyone folding, that would be an error anyway. So because you never balance your range when you shove the first mistake you encounter by shoving is to reveal you have a mediocre hand.
So because you think they don't have Aces that means they have a mediocre hand?! huh?
A lot of people overbet shove big hands aswell and I even saw Menlo or Timex write somewhere that at one point he was using it a lot to good effect.
I don't think you can say 'no you would not'. If the situation was right why not. If you're holding AA and you think this looks like a squeeze shoving may be the best way to get a call from really weak hands like 66.
Yeah, this is true aswell. If you thought one or more of them were "spitecallers" or "liked gambling" or whatever then shoving may be best if you had a big hand. There is no rule that says you have to slowplay or fastplay any hand 100% of the time.
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"
All glory comes from daring to begin
" - Eugene F. Ware.
EvilPie
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Posts: 14241
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #78 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:18:53 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 04:07:24 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on June 30, 2009, 03:22:05 PM
lol
Must admit I like the shove in this spot in most comps and I'd be likely to do it if I was in a regular comp that I could play again tomorrow if it goes wrong. Is this the case here?
Out of interest what range would you want to make a standard raise here to induce a light shove or possibly play a heads up / 3 way pot?
Obv our shove with A2 is a bluff because we're only getting called if we're beat so what hand do we need for it to not be a bluff but a genuine raise?
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #79 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:53:24 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on June 30, 2009, 03:50:37 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 11:57:38 AM
This was a shove preflop. There is 13400 in the middle when it gets around to you which is 20% of your stack or thereabouts. The Venetian structures are deceptively quick and shallow. Yeah, it's been slow up to now but it speeds up significantly over the coming three hours or so. But, given that they are a "deepstack zomg" a shove here has a much higher chance of getting through. As American players will fold small pairs and decent aces behind the original raiser because they "can find a better spot". If you do get called, it will be from a 10BBish stack usually, but the amount of money in the middle is going to compensate for you chasing an Ace or deuce or more complicated dogging.
So ship, and the pot will usually be pushed to you after they the accumulated 3minutes of hollywooding they undertake.
In Celtic’s hand “top two in the sb” you posted about the importance of balancing your range when playing poker. Not a groundbreaking idea you said. So what if we bring the idea of range balancing to this situation. Do you ever shove a premium hand in this spot? Would you look down, see A-A, and ship 54k worth of chips into this pot? No you would not. In fact, considering your expectation is everyone folding, that would be an error anyway. So because you never balance your range when you shove the first mistake you encounter by shoving is to reveal you have a mediocre hand.
So because you think they don't have Aces that means they have a mediocre hand?! huh?
A lot of people overbet shove big hands aswell and I even saw Menlo or Timex write somewhere that at one point he was using it a lot to good effect.
I don't think you can say 'no you would not'. If the situation was right why not. If you're holding AA and you think this looks like a squeeze shoving may be the best way to get a call from really weak hands like 66.
Greek, if somebody says that they think jamming will result in everyone folding a high % of the time I think I can say with some certainty “no you would not” when the decision involves them jamming premium here. I agree jamming could be good in another situation...but this isn’t another situation.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #80 on:
June 30, 2009, 04:59:43 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 04:05:56 PM
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 11:57:38 AM
This was a shove preflop. There is 13400 in the middle when it gets around to you which is 20% of your stack or thereabouts. The Venetian structures are deceptively quick and shallow. Yeah, it's been slow up to now but it speeds up significantly over the coming three hours or so. But, given that they are a "deepstack zomg" a shove here has a much higher chance of getting through. As American players will fold small pairs and decent aces behind the original raiser because they "can find a better spot". If you do get called, it will be from a 10BBish stack usually, but the amount of money in the middle is going to compensate for you chasing an Ace or deuce or more complicated dogging.
So ship, and the pot will usually be pushed to you after they the accumulated 3minutes of hollywooding they undertake.
In Celtic’s hand “top two in the sb” you posted about the importance of balancing your range when playing poker. Not a groundbreaking idea you said. So what if we bring the idea of range balancing to this situation. Do you ever shove a premium hand in this spot? Would you look down, see A-A, and ship 54k worth of chips into this pot? No you would not. In fact, considering your expectation is everyone folding, that would be an error anyway. So because you never balance your range when you shove the first mistake you encounter by shoving is to reveal you have a mediocre hand.
There is 20% of your stack out there and when we shove we can expect to win the pot a huge amount of the time. Yes, of course my range won't be perfectly balanced in this spot. But that concern is going to be outweighed by the fact that we are making a play that will carry the greatest expectation of value. With AA we could just raise to 7.5k or something because that would have the greatest value.
A spot like this is so weird (raise from EP and four callers into you) that balancing isn't a massive concern anyway. The other thread concerned a completely different (and incredibly common) situation where balance was a very important aspect of being able to extract value from weaker holdings.
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
The second mistake is to offer such attractive pot odds to the short-stacks believing the “deepstack” nature of the tournament will encourage them to fold and wait for better spots. The problem is with some of your oppos holding 10bb’s or less the “deepstack” idea is irrelevant. Those guys will be feeling a sense of urgency to get chips...and what better way than here? If you were in that spot holding A-10 or 7-7 (very realistic hands randoms have called with) would you fold and wait for a better spot? with those odds? knowing your oppo is weak? What better spot is there? It’s certainly not a good spot for you to be spewing your chips in hoping to hit a deuce or whatever. I don’t think your FE is anywhere near what you think it is.
Have you played these tournaments? Played against live American players much? They love folding and waiting for better spots in places they shouldn't. Hate getting it in preflop when they should, etc. How will they "know" we're weak? They'll talk themselves into believing we have JJ - 88 / AK - AQ anyway.
And in anycase, you're not thinking about the type of hands they would get into the pot there with 10BB stacks without raising and then snapcall us with when we shove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
705,469,248 games 0.032 secs 22,045,914,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.848% 34.27% 03.58% 241759112 25249106.00 { A2s }
Hand 1: 62.152% 58.57% 03.58% 413211924 25249106.00 { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }
With the overlay we'll receive we want the call. Also, the range of the second all - in will usually be so tight with these guys that they would have shipped it anyway already so we don't need to worry about multiple callers.
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
The third mistake is once you get called and table Ace-deuce your image will be LAG. Now considering your opinion is that this game is full of nits who’s mentality is “can find a better spot” and thus be pressured out of pots you really want to be building a solid image to errrr pressure them out of pots. By tabling a LAG image you now blow control at the table and get these villains thinking that better spot is vs you. So you sacrifice the best strat to win the game as a whole in order to gamble with this one individual hand alone. There’s loads of other stuff as well such as you better hope the original raiser doesn’t have premium and you don’t know the stack, styles etc of the other players.
Why should we be "hoping" the original raiser doesn't have a premium? Of course he could have a premium. He's playing a range of hands, a range that leaves him folding to this shove most of the time if he is as described. As for the rest, well, they play their cards. They always play their cards. It takes them forever to adjust, and when they do they usually have some sort of hand. We are nowhere near to the money. Our concern should be finding spots where we can expect to amass chips and add to our stack. Here is an opportunity to add 20% to it. You don't have to show when they all fold.
And if you get comments, etc, after the hand then so what? If it's a case of adjusting slightly tighter when it all has to go in that's fine. But no matter what they think of seeing A2soooted, they aren't going to suddenly fight you tooth and nail for every pot. It doesn't work that way (thankfully).
Quote from: MANTIS01 on June 30, 2009, 03:13:28 PM
Pushing is not good poker.
I disagree.
Yes Lloyd I have a lot of live table time vs Americans and I have played this particular tournament at The Venetian several times. You opened your post with “This is a push” which sounded very certain. I have given you a host of things to think about to question how sure you are and to offer some fuel to this debate. Your responses mean you have clearly been thinking things through, good, but I’m afraid they haven’t convinced me that pushing is anything other than a blind spewy t’internet-style gamble.
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LuckyLloyd
Sr. Member
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #81 on:
June 30, 2009, 05:29:49 PM »
Quote from: EvilPie on June 30, 2009, 04:18:53 PM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on June 30, 2009, 04:07:24 PM
Quote from: EvilPie on June 30, 2009, 03:22:05 PM
lol
Must admit I like the shove in this spot in most comps and I'd be likely to do it if I was in a regular comp that I could play again tomorrow if it goes wrong. Is this the case here?
Out of interest what range would you want to make a standard raise here to induce a light shove or possibly play a heads up / 3 way pot?
Obv our shove with A2 is a bluff because we're only getting called if we're beat so what hand do we need for it to not be a bluff but a genuine raise?
You're in Vegas while the World Series is on. Yes, this specific (in terms of buyin and structure) comp runs 4 days a week or something, but we definitely get to play something tomorrow. However, such concerns shouldn't influence our thinking. We should only be worrying about identifying the most profitable play.
The 4 bet light to induce stuff seems pretty silly to me. You make a raise to 6.5k / 7k and they are much more likely to call than to raise unless one of the small stacks shoves - in which case it isn't really "light", it is just whatever decentish cards they were playing to call and see a flop with that they cannot leave 4k behind on (though sometimes they will!). Playing a big multiway pot oop is going to be a nightmare with these stack sizes (because a decent c - bet is going to be such a huge percentage of our remaining stack). So much so, that I'd be tempted to ship AQ - AK and JJ - 99 thinking I have the best hand, but knowing that a 3 bet is going to get multiple callers and making me want to stick pins in my eyes on most flops.
With QQ - AA I'm just making it 8.5k, expecting callers and having the intention of basically never folding postflop.
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #82 on:
June 30, 2009, 08:50:04 PM »
ok, iv been slightly baffled by this thread. Call preflop, its not a compound error, its not like now we see A2K we are gonna go broke BECAUSE we made a mistake preflop, we didnt, we called with a hand that plays well multiway getting a great price with 50bb stacks which we can deffo play profitably.
FWIW i think shoving as a standard line preflop here is spew without an established image and some sort of read on the ep opener.
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #83 on:
July 01, 2009, 12:47:46 AM »
Yeah, I think the shove is spew as well. There are a lot of factors to consider in any hand, but especially when you're thinking about moving all-in from a comfortable position. I would really want to consider all those factors pretty accurately before deciding. Lloyd advocates moving in based on the way Americans play e.g."American players will fold small pairs and decent aces". But the truth is we don't even know how many of the villains are actually American to start with. Anyway...if someone gave me advice to ship because 300 million people will all fold small pairs and decent aces in this spot I would wonder how well conceived that advice was. Moving all-in is advice that can be given for any hand at all...you can squeeze all-in loads in a tournament...so what makes this squeezing situation such a special one from the rest? Why is it the right one? They are American and will fold....hmmmm....I think i'll call and see if diamonds come.
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totalise
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #84 on:
July 01, 2009, 06:48:10 AM »
Quote
And in anycase, you're not thinking about the type of hands they would get into the pot there with 10BB stacks without raising and then snapcall us with when we shove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
705,469,248 games 0.032 secs 22,045,914,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.848% 34.27% 03.58% 241759112 25249106.00 { A2s }
Hand 1: 62.152% 58.57% 03.58% 413211924 25249106.00 { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }
With the overlay we'll receive we want the call. Also, the range of the second all - in will usually be so tight with these guys that they would have shipped it anyway already so we don't need to worry about multiple callers.
why we would want the call if we have 38% when called...
No idea if shoving is profitable or not, seems a bit spewy, and I think that calling will generate a higher expectation vs shoving even if shoving is +ev
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LuckyLloyd
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #85 on:
July 01, 2009, 10:31:45 AM »
Quote from: totalise on July 01, 2009, 06:48:10 AM
Quote
And in anycase, you're not thinking about the type of hands they would get into the pot there with 10BB stacks without raising and then snapcall us with when we shove:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
705,469,248 games 0.032 secs 22,045,914,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.848% 34.27% 03.58% 241759112 25249106.00 { A2s }
Hand 1: 62.152% 58.57% 03.58% 413211924 25249106.00 { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }
With the overlay we'll receive we want the call. Also, the range of the second all - in will usually be so tight with these guys that they would have shipped it anyway already so we don't need to worry about multiple callers.
why we would want the call if we have 38% when called...
No idea if shoving is profitable or not, seems a bit spewy, and I think that calling will generate a higher expectation vs shoving even if shoving is +ev
Because if it is against a 10BBish stack, given the money already in the middle we only need 33% or less. Maybe we aren't seeking the call (lol!), but we don't mind it.
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All glory comes from daring to begin
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doubleup
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #86 on:
July 01, 2009, 11:29:40 AM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on July 01, 2009, 10:31:45 AM
Maybe we aren't seeking the call (lol!), but we don't mind it.
Don't be silly - you absolutely hate being called.
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LuckyLloyd
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Posts: 625
Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #87 on:
July 01, 2009, 11:42:36 AM »
Quote from: doubleup on July 01, 2009, 11:29:40 AM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on July 01, 2009, 10:31:45 AM
Maybe we aren't seeking the call (lol!), but we don't mind it.
Don't be silly - you absolutely hate being called.
Not from a 10BBish stack in this situation mate. I'd just shrug and hope to get there.
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"
All glory comes from daring to begin
" - Eugene F. Ware.
doubleup
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #88 on:
July 01, 2009, 12:37:37 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on July 01, 2009, 11:42:36 AM
Quote from: doubleup on July 01, 2009, 11:29:40 AM
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on July 01, 2009, 10:31:45 AM
Maybe we aren't seeking the call (lol!), but we don't mind it.
Don't be silly - you absolutely hate being called.
Not from a 10BBish stack in this situation mate. I'd just shrug and hope to get there.
a) 1+1 = 2
b) 3-2 =1
you are more or less saying that you prefer b)
As far as your idea of pushing goes, it probably works a lot of the time - would you do the same if the opponents were all limpers and your stack size in proportion i.e 20bbs or so?
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AlexMartin
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Re: Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee
«
Reply #89 on:
July 01, 2009, 01:53:23 PM »
how has no-one from luton seen this thread yet? I'd love to hear MDD's thoughts.
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