Monster draw - ship now or wait?

[keilan303]

£25 Live tourney - 20 runners, 3 paid, final table, 3 paid, 9 left, avg stack ~18k, we are sitting around 23k, blinds 5/1k

Rockman limps UTG (dirty stack but I imagine he has me covered, he just took someone out). Some history on rockman....2 weeks ago he limp calls QJ OOP, hits QJ on flop and i have to fold AA to his overbet on the flop. Last week I make a terrible limp in position with aces, he bets a draw on flop, I raise, he calls, hits it on turn, I didn't have him on draw and shoved. - moral of story, have played many hands against rockman, fairly solid player but loose tendancies pre

Another fairly sold (but loose pre) limps along.

We look down at   , seen this limp UTG with QJ, KJ many times so raise up to 4, BB is short (~4000) don't mind him being in, but he passed, rockman calls, limper calls.

Flop is    

Rockman bets 8000 into 13500 pot. Has a tendancy to overbet 2 pair, this is a fairly sold bet, I imagine he expects it to end here. Have seen him lead draws only to give it up to a raise before. (J9 spades deff not in his range tho!)

Limper folds.

Calling is out of the question. Based on past info, should we get it in now and flip for monster chip lead, is there any chance he'll fold (given his range, would you fold if I shove?) I usually always final table this tourney but I'm told I rock up too much and thats why I havent cashed for a while. Take the shot?

[maldini32]

shove everday of the week

[GreekStein]

You pretty much answered your own question - pretty easy shove

[gatso]

really, really easy shove

why is rockman called rockman when he's loose?

[kukushkin88]

Shove here, don't fold AA on the QJ board two weeks ago and don't limp AA last week.

[maldini32]

really, really easy shove

why is rockman called rockman when he's loose?

[keilan303]

Shove here, don't fold AA on the QJ board two weeks ago and don't limp AA last week.

It was for my whole stack and the read was two pair (also only level 2)

Despite his range agains me, rockman is generally very solid and you need the jaws of life (or a set) to get any chips from him.

[daviebhoy]

Rockman seems to be flopping 2 pair an awful lot.

I don't get your read being 2 pair when you say he overbets with 2 pair and here he has bet slightly more than half the pot.

As we don't have his stack size - you may be ahead here and you likely have 15 outs even if he is not bluffing and he has a K.

As said, you already answered your own question - easy shove. You don't give your position at the table and depending on that I am not sure I like the 4*BB raise pre much.

[keilan303]

The 2 pair was a different hand...I don't put him on 2 pair here, but his bet size indicates he had a good piece of flop.... forgot to mention i was OTB, I went for 4xBB as there were 2 limpers and I figured to be ahead, there was 3.5k out there....if he's limp calling nines (not sure if thats in his play) thats a great flop for a cbet..tbh folding pre crossed my mind as he generally is a rock and hated him calling pre, I am guessing you are suggesting limp along pre, peel off the turn if we're priced in and give up there if we miss, probably only losing 4k in process aswell! This is why i'm not so convinced shoving is a good move....guess its all a bit results orientated, but I find myself in these same spots against this same guy every week!!

[daviebhoy]

I was thinking more about how many people are left to act when you raise with ATs with 20% of your stack. On the button I guess it is okay but it sounds like "rockman" owns you.

Pre-flop its not actually a great spot with AT. I can see arguments for limping, raising less and raising more. As played stop wetting yourself every time rockman bets and shove!

[Pyso]

"I usually always final table this tourney "

Why is that then? Does variance not apply to you?

[kukushkin88]

It's specifically because variance does apply to him that he usually finals. It is prob a very small sample size < 6 at a guess.

[LuckyLloyd]

Your preflop is bad.

[MC]

Your preflop is bad.

Why?

[keilan303]

"I usually always final table this tourney "

Why is that then? Does variance not apply to you?

when people say they'll be 5 seconds, do you time them?