Exit hand at APAT - comments please

[BulldozerD]

well we are making assumptions in absence of other information but i don't think i am out of order saying that a larger proportion of players in APAT events are pretty tight and they don't tend to overvalue hands preflop (i think some undervalue hands personally) as opposed to standard casino tournaments.

as an aside this made me lol a bit at the table yesterday - guy raises from the SB and is basically a rock - guy in BB reraises him and SB folds and shows QQ saying he didn't want to go out this early. I mean wtf.

[neildawson]

You DID look very surprised at that

(BB showed AKo btw)

[GreekStein]

Clear fold.

What no one has suggested yet is what do you think the chip leader has?

If you were in his shoes and saw an OP to 3500 and a shove for 20k, what would you call with?  Im assuming its only a hand that crushes AQ and therefore it should be an insta fold.

This^^

[gatso]

I think calculating your stack in terms of "m" is fine. The point of an "m" number is that it takes into account antes, which is far better than ignoring them by using bbs. You don't have to believe in Harrington strategy as such, it is just a better measure of stack size with antes in play.

As for the hand pretty easy fold, the chip leader I would imagine to have a very tight range here.

the main problem I have with using m is I believe it puts you in the wrong mindset when you're calculating a number to tell you how many orbits you can survive

it's negative thinking even if only on a subconcious level and that's never good

[Longy]

I think calculating your stack in terms of "m" is fine. The point of an "m" number is that it takes into account antes, which is far better than ignoring them by using bbs. You don't have to believe in Harrington strategy as such, it is just a better measure of stack size with antes in play.

As for the hand pretty easy fold, the chip leader I would imagine to have a very tight range here.

the main problem I have with using m is I believe it puts you in the wrong mindset when you're calculating a number to tell you how many orbits you can survive

it's negative thinking even if only on a subconcious level and that's never good

People may look at it like that, I personally don't it just gives me (or anyone else) a quick guideline to push and calling ranges.

[poonjoe]

I think calculating your stack in terms of "m" is fine. The point of an "m" number is that it takes into account antes, which is far better than ignoring them by using bbs. You don't have to believe in Harrington strategy as such, it is just a better measure of stack size with antes in play.

As for the hand pretty easy fold, the chip leader I would imagine to have a very tight range here.

the main problem I have with using m is I believe it puts you in the wrong mindset when you're calculating a number to tell you how many orbits you can survive

it's negative thinking even if only on a subconcious level and that's never good

lol never thought of it like that before

[the sicilian]

Clear fold.

What no one has suggested yet is what do you think the chip leader has?

If you were in his shoes and saw an OP to 3500 and a shove for 20k, what would you call with?  Im assuming its only a hand that crushes AQ and therefore it should be an insta fold.

This^^

+ 1 forget M ...listen to what the betting has told you...u r in serious trouble. Do you seriously think someones calls a raise and a 20k shove with something that doesn't destroy AQ..

[poonjoe]

I assume yr not near bubble?

The nearer you are to the bubble then the tougher the call, obviously. The larger your skill advantage then the tougher the call also, but the blinds seem very high here so yr skill advantage won't mean a lot. If the bubble is far off then you can look at it pretty much in terms of chip equity.
 
Did the chip leader call with just you to act behind, or a few people to act behind? The more players behind him, the stronger his range is, obv.
 
Also you didn't say if you were playing 9/10 or whatever-handed.
 
9 handed, if blinds are not involved, then you're getting an interesting price. Your 3.5k + 18.5 + 18.5 + 2.7 = 43,200-15,000 in a 3-way pot. You have a hand. You'll have a commanding stack of 58,200 if you win. On the chips you need an equity of (15/58.2=) 25.8% for the win.
 
Lets errr on the conservative side and round that up to 27%. Lets say you need a bit more to call because you have a skill advantage and/or the bubble is a few tables away. If you were playing with total donkeys and you were near the bubble, then you would need much more equity to call, something like 35% or more.  Now look at a couple of break even points:-
 
i) if the first shove is light, and has a range of any pair, any ace, any two face cards, plus some good suited connectors, AQo has more than 27% when the big stack has worse than 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+
 
 
ii) if the first shove is stronger, and has a range of 77+, A9o+, A8s+, QJs+, KJo+, AQo has more than 27% when the big stack has worse than:- 88+, ATs+, AJo+

Calling here with AQo is a real stretch against the average player. If either of these players are at all tight its a clear fold. You need one of them to be loose as a mudflap before you can entertain calling.
 

[SirPerceval]

I assume yr not near bubble?

The nearer you are to the bubble then the tougher the call, obviously. The larger your skill advantage then the tougher the call also, but the blinds seem very high here so yr skill advantage won't mean a lot. If the bubble is far off then you can look at it pretty much in terms of chip equity.
 
Did the chip leader call with just you to act behind, or a few people to act behind? The more players behind him, the stronger his range is, obv.
 
Also you didn't say if you were playing 9/10 or whatever-handed.
 
9 handed, if blinds are not involved, then you're getting an interesting price. Your 3.5k + 18.5 + 18.5 + 2.7 = 43,200-15,000 in a 3-way pot. You have a hand. You'll have a commanding stack of 58,200 if you win. On the chips you need an equity of (15/58.2=) 25.8% for the win.
 
Lets errr on the conservative side and round that up to 27%. Lets say you need a bit more to call because you have a skill advantage and/or the bubble is a few tables away. If you were playing with total donkeys and you were near the bubble, then you would need much more equity to call, something like 35% or more.  Now look at a couple of break even points:-
 
i) if the first shove is light, and has a range of any pair, any ace, any two face cards, plus some good suited connectors, AQo has more than 27% when the big stack has worse than 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+
 
 
ii) if the first shove is stronger, and has a range of 77+, A9o+, A8s+, QJs+, KJo+, AQo has more than 27% when the big stack has worse than:- 88+, ATs+, AJo+

Calling here with AQo is a real stretch against the average player. If either of these players are at all tight its a clear fold. You need one of them to be loose as a mudflap before you can entertain calling.
 

Nice post - thanks.

Not near the bubble - about 80 left (205 runners).

10 handed and chipleader was 2 to my right.

No real information on chipleader as he only moved to the table a few hands earlier. Original shove was from semi-loose player and as he was also shortish stack I put him on a range of any ace, any pair, any 2 pictures, suited connectors.

[poonjoe]

hmmm OK then so if the shover is that loose then you can't dismiss calling out of hand, but...

I would agree with most people on here saying that you can't imagine the big stack seeing you raise, another guy shove, then calling the shove with anything but a massive hand. He doesn't know the shover is that loose, if he's new to the table. He has to think that you will probably call. Is he calling with less than 99/AJs/AQo/KQs ? I don't think so. So its clearly a fold.

If you started the hand with less chips, like 15 instead of 18.5, then the problem would be a lot tougher and it might have been a mistake not to go with the AQo.