Good spot/bad spot

[outragous76]

a really easy pass

and that is why the raiser loves having people like you on his table.

When someone calls with AK he will have stolen enough blinds to take a "free" shot and will bink with his J3 anyway

lol - why should the raiser love having someone like me at his table. I call light in spots like these but i think you overrate the strength of A3o. Bit of a sweeping statement

so like I asked gatso  - whats your calling range?

calling "light" but passing A3 is a contradiction in terms

[BulldozerD]

we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP.

[BulldozerD]

we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP.

calling range is 66+, A9+ KQ maybe slightly lighter depending on how i feel at the time btw

[outragous76]

we are acting as if the guy has been open shoving every hand for 2 rounds. he has done it twice per the OP.

calling range is 66+, A9+ KQ maybe slightly lighter depending on how i feel at the time btw

villain holds say J6

A3 = 59%
A9 = 63%
KQ = 68%
77 = 70%

Now it strikes me that if you woke up with AK and he showed you QQ - you would call

so what are you waiting for?

[BulldozerD]

your explanation has just lost me completely but hasn't levelled me into thinking calling is good here.

i don't care whether he has j6o or shows me QQ or whatever, i just don't think calling with A3 against his range of hands is good here.

[outragous76]

your explanation has just lost me completely but hasn't levelled me into thinking calling is good here.

i don't care whether he has j6o or shows me QQ or whatever, i just don't think calling with A3 against his range of hands is good here.

his range of hands is any 2 cards - hence i used a randomiser to come up with J6

You are levelling yourself if you think that the %'s are wrong

even if you start to give him hands with strength (v's A3o)

K9 = 58%
KQ = 57%
JQs = 53%
98s = 51%

So basically what we are saying is that providing he doesnt have a pair or a bigger A - we are pretty much never worse than 50/50 - but yet you snap off a 50/50 if you know that is what you are getting (in the Ak v's QQ scenario)

and worst case he has the pair or a bigger A you have 30%

All I am trying to do is put some maths behind your mind set of what you "deem" to be a strong or weak hand. If you chose to ignore it then so be it

[Longy]

Click to see full-size image.

Q8o is right near the bottom of 50% pushing range, his range is probably wider.

This is deffo a cEV call.

[MC]

^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.

But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold?

Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call

[Longy]

^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.

But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold?

Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call

ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect.

It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same.

[craigbetts]

It looks like Guy has been flying the flag for the call and yes i still edge to this.

Many thanks for all the views/replies, it just highlights how marginal the call is.

[treefella]

Click to see full-size image.

Q8o is right near the bottom of 50% pushing range, his range is probably wider.

This is deffo a cEV call.

what is this software and were can i get it ? looks handy . thanks.

[Longy]

www.sngwiz.com

30 month free trial available.

[MC]

^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.

But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold?

Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call

ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect.

It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same.

Yeah good point.

However, can it be dismissed entirely as 7th place in a 45 man is only a min-cash, and 9 handed we'd be taking ICM into account...

[outragous76]

^^Yeah, this is def a call without ICM considerations.

But with ICM considerations I would think it's a fold?

Personally I was gonna say fold until I saw Longy said call, so now I might call

ICM at this stage of a mtt, meh. The places before the final table are probably all min cashes and therefore ICM doesn't have a particularly strong effect.

It is bit like the 180 mans on stars that I just play a totally cEV game, when we are on the 18person bubble and I think most of the good regs do the same.

Yeah good point.

However, can it be dismissed entirely as 7th place in a 45 man is only a min-cash, and 9 handed we'd be taking ICM into account...

i think ICM could be taking it too far (as most people wont be thinking that sophisticated in this tourney), but on the same theme - people can be very bothered about "cashing" (i know its the same thing but on many levels it isnt) . This is what makes the villains play stand up here against many of his opponents in this particular tourney.

[gatso]

www.sngwiz.com

30 month free trial available.

that's very generous of them