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NoflopsHomer
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« Reply #60 on: May 07, 2010, 12:21:22 AM » |
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I am loving a lay of the hung parliament at 1.60ish now...the exit polls dont ring true to me....the liberals share seems wrong and I have heard that many good judges thing the tories may have just nicked it. I am on hung parliament big at 5/4 but have hedged on a 2-50 tory majority at 13/8
In the past people have been ashamed to admit they voted Tory to exit pollsters. Now I suspect it might be shame to admit a Labour vote. Also, a high turnout should favour Labour. I have had a lump on a hung parliament at 4/7. With all the problems and high turnout, people in cities late at night trying to vote are less like to be Tories imo. |
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The Camel
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« Reply #61 on: May 07, 2010, 12:46:00 AM » |
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Really Keith?? I am trying to keep my prices updated in running and at the moment I am effectively each of two a tory majority and No overall majority. Have biggish position on NOM at 5/4 but am laying anything below 4/6 a Tory majority. I think in the marginals the swing will be bigger. Other positions I have taken are Labour under 230.5 seats and Tories under 330.5 seats both at 5/6. think 326 or so is the right line for Tory seats and about 215 is right for Labour (although the latter is harder to predict)
I am swaying as quickly as the betting moves. I know the third Labour win in Sunderland was by a very popular local MP and the swing there was alot smaller than the other two. Maybe local issues and personalities are going to be more important than ever before in a general election. |
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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bobby1
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« Reply #62 on: May 07, 2010, 01:07:26 AM » |
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I had managed to bet total Lib Dem seats between 70 and 89 at 7/4 which I thought was a tremendous price. Looks like they might end up with the lower end of this at best so I'm hoping to sneak in.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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Horneris
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« Reply #63 on: May 07, 2010, 01:49:34 AM » |
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ChipRich just looked at the seat counter and asked me "which party are the red ones?"
What an absolute moron, he has the brains of a 6 year old.
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ChipRich
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« Reply #64 on: May 07, 2010, 01:50:08 AM » |
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ChipRich just looked at the seat counter and asked me "which party are the red ones?"
What an absolute moron, he has the brains of a 6 year old.
Didnt happen |
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Horneris
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« Reply #65 on: May 07, 2010, 01:53:26 AM » |
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Middy can confirm.
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ripple11
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« Reply #66 on: May 07, 2010, 02:09:16 AM » |
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hung is now 95% IMHO
take 8/11 now!!
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redarmi
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« Reply #67 on: May 07, 2010, 02:14:24 AM » |
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Yep - was about to say I would now be about 1/3 hung parliament.
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ripple11
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« Reply #68 on: May 07, 2010, 02:18:47 AM » |
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1/2 now....dropping like a stone
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
 Offline
Posts: 10040
Go Ducks!
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« Reply #69 on: May 07, 2010, 02:34:31 AM » |
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Not that they have declared yet but looking like gg my Lib Dem bets, they are having a pretty bad night.
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redarmi
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« Reply #70 on: May 07, 2010, 02:56:24 AM » |
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This is probably a really stupid bet but I don't think backing Labour to win most seats at 200-1 is the worst bet ever given the Edgbaston result...
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Bongo
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« Reply #71 on: May 07, 2010, 03:00:51 AM » |
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that's a recount now...
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Do you think it's dangerous to have Busby Berkeley dreams?
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Jon MW
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« Reply #72 on: May 07, 2010, 03:02:10 AM » |
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BBC's freelancer reporting a recount. Election offcials say that the votes do not tally with the turnout. Wouldn't be the first time that a Labour constituency victory looked a bit iffy. |
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
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Bongo
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« Reply #73 on: May 07, 2010, 04:44:29 AM » |
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11/2 NOM on billy hills  |
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Do you think it's dangerous to have Busby Berkeley dreams?
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redsimon
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« Reply #74 on: May 07, 2010, 08:19:38 AM » |
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Just need Labour to get over 250 seats and turnout to stick betweem 65.01-70.00% and clean up... (If £50 is a clean up!)
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Author