Semi Interesting Spot

[Dubai]

$100 rebuy on stars- rebuy period just finished so all reads previously should probably be discarded although im sure he will just see me as random with chips that has shown a bit of gamble and he if he OPR'd me its a small sample but a $330 avg buyin

Villain is DJK- He has 26k, i have 19k and we actually are 1st and 2nd overall at this stage.

Blinds 75-150

Fish limps UTG+2 with a 6700 stack- DJK isolates to 600 in the cutoff, Im in the bb and make it 1650. Fish folds DJK calls.

Pot is 3675 and the flop is  

I bet 2250 he calls. Pot is now 8175 and we have 15100 behind

Turn is . We bet 4450- he calls. Pot is 17075- we have 10650 behind

River is  . How often should we be bluffing here if we shove? what sort of range is he calling with? If we are strong is he calling more hands that that he doesnt bet compared to hands he is shoving when checked to that he doesnt call a shove with? Ie if we are strong should we be checking or shoving and if we are weak should we be shoving or checking.

[GreekStein]

[  ] qualified to give Dave mfkin Shallow my opinion on poker.

[outragous76]

i think you should be getting your strong hands in against DJK - (although your definition of strong and mine could differ)

I think he is capable of calling light, as it is a weird board to bet 3 streets on, so it could look bluffy - esp if you were spazzing in the rebuy

as for your weak hands...................................

do what dubai would do

[Dubai]

But what can he actually have to call a shove with? I literally have no idea what he has

[outragous76]

But what can he actually have to call a shove with? I literally have no idea what he has

he is gettign 2.7:1 to the call, so by the time he calls the turn, he kinda has to call the river - even with AJ AQ type hands

dunno its really weid, but i dont think he plays a big flush this way ( on flop).

I mean if he doesnt put you on a K is his A that bad?

[buzzharvey22]

he has aces full right?

[Dubai]

But pre antes and deep its not like people get out of line very often

[Dubai]

he has aces full right?

Its actually one of the most likely hands. In the actual hand i have AK tho. So obviously blockers. So given i have AK what on earth can he have?

[roscopiko]

he has aces full right?

Its actually one of the most likely hands. In the actual hand i have AK tho. So obviously blockers. So given i have AK what on earth can he have?

44 if your feeling optomistic

[Dubai]

Basically i was interested in the expected ratio of double float hands that he shoves if checked to in relation to the number of hands he checks behind that he would call a shove with. If a>b then i should check and if b<a i should shove

[buzzharvey22]

i dont think we can have many hands that it would be profitable to bet with on river here, wether we are value betting or bluffin.

Surely we cant pick up a call from AQ and worse,not after we fire another barrel.

Calling a 3 bet with Kx would be prety bad, also quite unlikely if we hold AK.

I guess he may play 44 like this, try and gets heads up with fish, and he can +ev'ly call a 3 bet being so deep.

If he has 44 he jams the river for value, i guess we pick up value from from when he has this hand, and also if he has randomly floated 2 streets. But then again we can let him check back some hands, maybe even flushes.

haha i literaly have no clue

[pleno1]

how does he play KQdd

[Royal Flush]

Flat pre, thank me later.

[Dubai]

Its ok kid. I can play oop.

[EvilPie]

Without reads I can't think of anything I'd call your shove with here other than AA or the other AK.

If you've got a bit of history then you can factor in an extra bluffing percentage depending on how often you value bet / bluff rivers.

Given all this I think you have to check this one to give him a chance to bluff or value bet himself.

Problem here is that what the f**k does he have that he actually bluffs with? All the under pairs just check back as do the flushes. 44 probably also checks.

So now I guess we can reverse the question on to him to see what he can put you on to value shove a weaker hand himself.

If he can put you on anything that will call his bluff then I guess you can check to him to let him value shove.

So I guess my answer to the question is to just flip a coin. Shove or check seem very similar to me here. Depends much more on what he thinks of your ability to call a bluff than your ability to triple barrell bluff imo. If he thinks you'll call a bet light then check. If he thinks you fold everything he beats then you might as well just shove.

Quite a tough spot really when you think about it.