Raise or Call

[GreekStein]

Think maybe I can raise/fold as the best line here

Full Tilt Poker Game #23208827146: Table Lark Meadow (6 max, ante, deep) - $1/$2 Ante $0.30 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 16:06:34 ET - 2010/08/19
Seat 3: kurti1 ($593.30)
Seat 4: 11MASTERBAB11 ($405.80)
Seat 5: GreekStein ($389.20)
Seat 6: WiFi23 ($395.55)
GreekStein antes $0.30
kurti1 antes $0.30
11MASTERBAB11 antes $0.30
WiFi23 antes $0.30
WiFi23 posts the small blind of $1
kurti1 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GreekStein [ As]
11MASTERBAB11 raises to $8.20
GreekStein raises to $28.80
WiFi23 has 15 seconds left to act
WiFi23 folds
kurti1 folds
11MASTERBAB11 calls $20.60
*** FLOP *** [ ]
11MASTERBAB11 checks
GreekStein checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
11MASTERBAB11 bets $30.90
GreekStein calls $30.90
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
11MASTERBAB11 bets $61.80
GreekStein calls $61.80
*** SHOW DOWN ***
11MASTERBAB11 shows [ ] a flush, King high
GreekStein shows [ As] a flush, Ace high
GreekStein wins the pot ($245.20) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $247.20 | Rake $2
Board: [ ]
Seat 3: kurti1 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: 11MASTERBAB11 showed [ ] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 5: GreekStein (button) showed [ As] and won ($245.20) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 6: WiFi23 (small blind) folded before the Flop

[DMorgan]

I'm betting this flop the vast majority of the time

I'd certainly raise the river. 88xx and QQxx are the only hands that he can really have that beat you and due to the exact same reasoning I can't see him folding other decent flushes. I'm not raising huge though, probably make it 175ish

[geordieneil]

i would never raise here, whats the point?   is he gonna call a raise with a worse flush with loads of boats out there.....on the other hand he called ur 3 bet with a paired board on the flop.
   the way the hand worked, i sigh call the river, but never reraise

[SuuPRlim]

I would also raise the river.

You can never really have a boat, so for this reason I think he'll bet/call for value wider.

[DMorgan]

i would never raise here, whats the point?   is he gonna call a raise with a worse flush with loads of boats out there.....on the other hand he called ur 3 bet with a paired board on the flop.
   the way the hand worked, i sigh call the river, but never reraise

The only boats are Q3, 88 and 83 and he almost never has Q3 or 83.

[SuuPRlim]

Having looked through this again he just never has a boat ever (spose he could have 4 Queens) very rarely he has 88, i said raise fold, id be tempted to raise call, but I dont think you EVER get bet/3bet in this spot so it seems irrelvant.
waste of time me writing it really.

[geordieneil]

i would never raise here, whats the point?   is he gonna call a raise with a worse flush with loads of boats out there.....on the other hand he called ur 3 bet with a paired board on the flop.
   the way the hand worked, i sigh call the river, but never reraise

The only boats are Q3, 88 and 83 and he almost never has Q3 or 83.

Q8, 88, Q3, 83,....QQ &33 Possible but unlikely.   Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs....my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. IMO cos played the hand well.
  its better to win a small pot than lose a biggun 
 

[SuuPRlim]

i would never raise here, whats the point?   is he gonna call a raise with a worse flush with loads of boats out there.....on the other hand he called ur 3 bet with a paired board on the flop.
   the way the hand worked, i sigh call the river, but never reraise

The only boats are Q3, 88 and 83 and he almost never has Q3 or 83.

Q8, 88, Q3, 83,....QQ &33 Possible but unlikely.   Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs....my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. IMO cos played the hand well.
  its better to win a small pot than lose a biggun 
 

by the same logic its also better to win a big pot rather than a small one?
IDK, I think its close in the heat of battle I think I might just call, but his hand looks so much like a flush, and you hardly ever have a boat yourself so imo its perfectly feesable that he is bet calling here for value.

[Royal Flush]

Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs 

Blockers.

my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. 

If that was the case we could just bluff for fun in PLO and make incred money

[SuuPRlim]

If that was the case we could just bluff for fun in PLO and make incred money

man how I've tried.

[geordieneil]

Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs 

Blockers.

?? the only blockers known are whats on the board, still plenty combinations that beat him

my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. 

If that was the case we could just bluff for fun in PLO and make incred money

elaborate??       he would have to be a grade A donkey to call a raise on any paired board without a boat, even if it is double paired.....just find raising here to be absolutely pointless. yes i would be confident i was ahead, but not 100% sure

[SuuPRlim]

Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs 

Blockers.

?? the only blockers known are whats on the board, still plenty combinations that beat him

my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. 

If that was the case we could just bluff for fun in PLO and make incred money

elaborate??       he would have to be a grade A donkey to call a raise on any paired board without a boat, even if it is double paired.....just find raising here to be absolutely pointless. yes i would be confident i was ahead, but not 100% sure

There is...
2x combo's of Q3
4x combo's of Q8
4x combo's of 83
2x combo's of quads (QQ/33)

that makes ten combos, when we take into consideration that he called a 3bet OOP, he range doesn't include many hands that have Q3 or 83 so if we disregard these virtually there are 6combo's that we should worry about...

and when you consider that our hand looks like we never really have a boat, and he has few boats in his range, if we raise to $180 he's getting 2-1 on his money where we have such a thin value range (assming he wont expect us to raise flushes very often) he could hero us with lots of flushes, possibly even a naked Q.

Its a fairly common mistake in PLO to miss tons of value in these spots.

[EvilPie]

Why can't he have these, he has Q5 in his hand ffs 

Blockers.

?? the only blockers known are whats on the board, still plenty combinations that beat him

my point is he is only calling a raise with a boat and therefore your beat, so whats the point of raising. 

If that was the case we could just bluff for fun in PLO and make incred money

elaborate??       he would have to be a grade A donkey to call a raise on any paired board without a boat, even if it is double paired.....just find raising here to be absolutely pointless. yes i would be confident i was ahead, but not 100% sure

He's obviously not going to call but he may suss out that we can't call without a boat either and stick one in our eye.

Then if we're really really good we call anyway because we know he's good enough to know that we're good enough to deduce that he hasn't got a boat.

Basically we've got a good hand that we're bluffing with but in a good way if we can turn that bluff in to a hero call.

If we raise river then fold to a worse hand we're a donkey.

If we're not good enough to figure several steps ahead and decide to raise to induce a bluff (I include myself here btw) then yes there is no point raising the river.

[geordieneil]

missed value bets on paired boards??? your only getting called if your beat (unless to a superdonk).....value bet???

your combo analysis u mentioned to rule out q3 and 83...why? he's called with q5 in his hand.



lets agree to disagree on this one

[SuuPRlim]

missed value bets on paired boards??? your only getting called if your beat (unless to a superdonk).....value bet???

your combo analysis u mentioned to rule out q3 and 83...why? he's called with q5 in his hand.



lets agree to disagree on this one

Yeah obv no offence I respect your opinion.

I think on a average you can rule these hands out because YES there will be a few (VERY FEW combo's of 83xx and Q3xx) stuff like AQQ3 etc, but at the same time there will be a few combo's of Q8xx that he cant have aswel, AQ85 etc. so for the basis of maths I think you can just remove these hands completely to save some really complex PPT calcs. But you realise how FEW Q3/83 combos he has where's a Q8 has a few more.

Just in my experience spots like this where it seems like you have the best hand pretty much always but there is a small % you're beat, these are often spots where because of the action you rep SUCH a small value raange (imagine him posting the hand here after you've raised asking what to do - he'd get a few responses saying "he never has a boat really, and wouldnt raise a flush very often so i'd call) people ARE capable of hero'ing you here

I just always remember hands where I value raise 2nd or 3rd nuts for value in situations like this and get called by ridiculous hands.

Incidently what would WE do with suppose we had AA88 here would we raise?