The Best In The Business

[pleno1]

I think its probably the opposite way now. So many online guys are making a lot of money right now. You have all the people grinding mid stakes cash games getting $5k/month in rake back, some getting 10k+ in rake back, you have the hyper sng guys who lose money in games but still make $100k+ a year, the MTT guys who play a couple days a week and still somehow manage to win big money even though theory dictates they shouldn't. Most of these guys are really clever and can/will end up playing live poker once Stars kills their online action.

If a guy playing $200 zoom (small stakes online) with a small-reasonable win rate and plays 40 hours/week 4 tables. Thats

4x40 = 160 hours/weak at tables
160x210(hph) = 33,600 hands per week
33600 / 7 x 26 (avg days/month) = 124800
Lets take >10% off the volume to be more realistic = 110000

Rakeback per month assuming already supernova = $6262 (around $251/day)
Rakeback per year = $75144

If you're winning at 3bb/100

$6 for every 100 hands.
$60 for every 1000 hands
$600 for every 10,000 hands
$6000 for every $100,000 hands

So lets say 100,000 hands you would make roughly $6k/month from rake back and $6k/month from profit, so around $140k/year

When you compare that to the guys grinding the 1/2, or 2/5 games online right now I think is a lot better. This is where the majority of players are playing in both live/online I guess.

When you start comparing higher games like you play though it becomes a lot closer/interesting imo. Problem is with online is the games just don't run that much and next year when rake back is taking away fro 5/10= games, it will take a huge chunk of profit away that you were previously having to "catch up with" so now instead of starting say $70k behind the guys who will get the rake back payments, you're now going to be even. The other side of the coin is that rake is a lot higher live, you have to travel to play, accommodation etc is expensive. Have to usually live in big cities like London or Barcelona (both amazing obv) instead of cheaper places.

I changed my mind a lot about live poker, I understand that in the future its going to potentially be one of the only ways for people to make money, I think thats bad for a lot of live players who play now. I think its very similar to online cash games and MTT's. Every month a lot of regs try to transition to MTT's, they have no idea what they are doing for 2-3 months, but once they find out the nuances of tournaments, their overall approach is far superior and they become big winners pretty quickly. I've staked cash game guys for mtts and they've lost for the first couple of months, but when they realise that JTs is a 3bet call for 28bbs SB vs BTN their eyes are opened and they start to understand wtf is going on.

I think thats the same for live cash games, the problem is, it will take the online guys a lot longer (time wise) to understand wtf is going on live simply because of sample sizes. But accessible games (non private games) are going to get a lot tougher. I think this has happened a lot in America since black Friday. A lot of guys just gave up online, they lost a bunch playing live initially, but now they are really, really fucking good and making a bunch of money.

I think in general in poker if you're smart enough and hard working enough you will always find a way to succeed where others don't want to put in the extra dozens of hours work necessary to catch up with you, simply because most people play poker because they don't have to work, rather than because they want to be the best.

Another thing live cash games are so different to online is because you're way deeper in general than in online cash games, its a totally different game.

[SuuPRlim]

hopefully you can find a site that offers a soft level of opposition, buyins up to 1000 big blinds and a straddle option 

[pleno1]

PokerStars Zoom Hand #145246819395:  Hold'em No Limit ($2.50/$5.00) - 2015/12/12 22:54:35 CET [2015/12/12 16:54:35 ET]
Table 'Lambda Velorum' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: ValentjNN ($3881.90 in chips)
Seat 2: pads1161 ($508.14 in chips)
Seat 3: 68ioweyou1 ($547.49 in chips)
Seat 4: lbk2800 ($575.81 in chips)
Seat 5: dingdongderb ($1555.47 in chips)
Seat 6: Greenstone25 ($498.65 in chips)
pads1161: posts small blind $2.50
68ioweyou1: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
lbk2800: folds
dingdongderb: folds
Greenstone25: folds
ValentjNN: folds
pads1161: calls $2.50
68ioweyou1: raises $10 to $15
pads1161: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pads1161: checks
68ioweyou1: bets $18.62
pads1161: calls $18.62
*** TURN *** [ ] []
pads1161: bets $17.50
68ioweyou1: folds
Uncalled bet ($17.50) returned to pads1161
pads1161 collected $64.44 from pot
pads1161: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $67.24 | Rake $2.80
Board [ ]
Seat 1: ValentjNN (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pads1161 (small blind) collected ($64.44)
Seat 3: 68ioweyou1 (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: lbk2800 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: dingdongderb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Greenstone25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Amatay1]

but when they realise that JTs is a 3bet call for 28bbs SB vs BTN their eyes are opened and they start to understand wtf is going on.

Huh? So I should 3bc 28 bigs sb vs btn with J10s 

Why?

[pleno1]

when you look at your equity vs the hands that will jam you get more than the right price never mind the ev of button folding to our 3bet.

[Amatay1]

when you look at your equity vs the hands that will jam you get more than the right price never mind the ev of button folding to our 3bet.

I thought you might say something like that. I should know this

[rfgqqabc]

Pile>3b/v tho surely? Remember discussing piling low pp and if it was exploitable. Good way to stop calling off

[pleno1]

Was nice to fly back to Budapest yesterday, you know whenever you fly back to the city you were brought up in, or get the train to the city you were brought up in you get a sense of ease and you know you're "home"? I always get this feeling with Budapest too, more so than any other place I've lived.


I got home, had a nap, watched some football, played a little poker and got relatively early night.

Today had a good sleep and woke up lateish. Had a very good session, bunch of deep runs, managed to chop the $215 turbo HU and win the .fr 200 6max which is one of my favourite tournaments and a few other nice runs for 20k session.

Next 2 days I will relax a lot, go to spa, shop, enjoy being here then I fly back to Prague on Wednesday evening before flying back to Newcastle on Thursday for the rest of Christmas.

One interesting hand I played today.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/17024319_1F94554086

I turn aces into a bluff on the river. I can have jj, qq, kk, at, t9 where he really will never have them, his main value combos are relatively not very strong vs the range I can raise otr.

Going to play fifa for a bit before bed. vamonosss

[pleno1]

Pile>3b/v tho surely? Remember discussing piling low pp and if it was exploitable. Good way to stop calling off

will still call if you jam small pairs and jts.

We dodge coolers when bb wakes up with a hand and when button decides to 4bet small and show us he has top top. Reason 4's is a more convenient jam than JTs is because JT will play really well post flop. Also when we jam JT, KQ prob calls, when we 3bet JT, KQ will call and we can make it fold later. Think most peoples default is to flat, doesn't play that well oop and we share equity of the hand when bb comes along (70% of the time) our hand also becomes very face up if we only flat broadways pre.

[pleno1]

Sorry I was in session when replying about the JTs.

Let's assume:

Button opens 2x (population read). (40%)
We 3bet our range in the sb to 5.7x. (18%)
Button jams Aq/22+

We make

23.5bbs with AA
9.2bbs with 99
5.2bbs with AKo
0.02bbs with KQo
1.57bbs with KQs
2.05bbs with JTs
1.21bbs with ATs
0.99bbs with JTs


Our opponents will naturally start opening the button tighter when we 3bet this wide (population 3bet here is 12 not 18) and thus we will get more lower variance spots to steal bvb. We force bb to fold a tonne of hands that call and share equity when we passively defend. We allow ourselves chances to win vs jt/kq/kj etc post flop when he calls our 3bet and we both flop nothing (normally we c/f oop here) we make hands like A8/97s/qto and lots and lots of hands (he's raising 40% so we make him fold at least 50% of his opening hands and if he does were auto profiting) that have good equity against us and when our range gets it in vs his we have good equity and we're making money.

[cheesies]

You flatting the btn with AJ vs someone that 3bet calls this wide? Surely with 40%+ vs your 3/calls and you folding ~half your 3bets getting in AJ is printing

[youthnkzR]

PokerStars Zoom Hand #145246819395:  Hold'em No Limit ($2.50/$5.00) - 2015/12/12 22:54:35 CET [2015/12/12 16:54:35 ET]
Table 'Lambda Velorum' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: ValentjNN ($3881.90 in chips)
Seat 2: pads1161 ($508.14 in chips)
Seat 3: 68ioweyou1 ($547.49 in chips)
Seat 4: lbk2800 ($575.81 in chips)
Seat 5: dingdongderb ($1555.47 in chips)
Seat 6: Greenstone25 ($498.65 in chips)
pads1161: posts small blind $2.50
68ioweyou1: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
lbk2800: folds
dingdongderb: folds
Greenstone25: folds
ValentjNN: folds
pads1161: calls $2.50
68ioweyou1: raises $10 to $15
pads1161: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pads1161: checks
68ioweyou1: bets $18.62
pads1161: calls $18.62
*** TURN *** [ ] []
pads1161: bets $17.50
68ioweyou1: folds
Uncalled bet ($17.50) returned to pads1161
pads1161 collected $64.44 from pot
pads1161: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $67.24 | Rake $2.80
Board [ ]
Seat 1: ValentjNN (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pads1161 (small blind) collected ($64.44)
Seat 3: 68ioweyou1 (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: lbk2800 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: dingdongderb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Greenstone25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Is this a turn we lead full range? If so should we be doing this as the 3x doesn't actually turn us a significant enough range advantage as even though he has a near 0 number of 3x, as a % of our range, hands containing 3x are pretty few.

[SuuPRlim]

I remember when I could play poker.

[strak33]

I remember when I could play poker.

When we could call because they might be at it.

[pleno1]

It was just because of the conversation with Alex on previous page. Thought would be fun to post.

#pokerbanter