The Best In The Business

[pleno1]

Whenever people sit down I think they just perceive every German or Skandi who is under 30 "must" be good. It's really not the case. I had couple encounters this week in the same tournament.

Started off with me raising UTG, mp young skandi flats with 14bbs, flop 942 i Cbet t9s for 1.5bbs for protection and he jams. I tank and say must be only aces and decide to fold, he shows me 4. He told me later he had a4s with some pretty bad reasoning why he played the hand. As the night in we sat together again, he was a really really nice guy. He had saved up for Vegas for 2 years and decided to take his shot in Prague instead. He finished day 1 of Eureka with too 5 chips and said it was one of most exciting experiences ever. He played 3 satalites to eureka and bubbled them but because he was going deep decided to play the EPT one too. As we approached the bubble he asked me if I'd take the cash or take a shot in the tournament. I told him I'd won a seat so would take cash. He told me the buy in was way more than his bankroll and he would have to take the cash. I told him he couldn't do this and he got into a big sweat. He eventually decided to bust out in 24 (23 seats) for 2700 euros instead of the 5300 EPT seat when he had it locked up. He really reminded me of myself when I was 20. Thought he knew a lot about poker but was really fundamentally lacking in a lot of spots, was being picked off by experienced players in spots which worked against the amateurs in his local casinos $30 tournaments. He showed a lot of drive, great personality and great hunger for he game. This whole experience will be great for him and he will be dying for the next time he can go on a road trip to an EPT. That's what it really all is about, young guys really wanting to be a poker pro, chasing the dream, watching Shark cage and enjoying it, always watching EPT live, signing everybody loves a chopped pot whenever they split a pot in their local casino.

The second guy I kind of wish I hadn't said what I did, but I did it so whatever. Old tight guy opens utg in satalite, looseish guy flyers utg1 and then mp goes all in for 16bbs. I have 13bbs on the button with 99 and I can't see utg and utg1 stacks I ask them one by one if I can see and try to count their stacks (lighting is sometimes horrific here in the small rooms at EPTs) the guy who jammed, a young German who thought he knew a lot more than he clearly did piped up something like "we all have more than you bro it's irrelevant, why are you asking these questions, you're the short stack" or something along those lines. And I said "if you need me to explain why I need to know their stack sizes then maybe you should unreg pre" I immediately regretted it and it was very arrogant of me to say. I really get on very well with people in live poker, the bad fish love playing with me, I'm usually very polite but like to have fun with them and ofc I'm aggressive so I give them action. It's more the younger guys who needlessly tank, berate the fish (oh the irony!) and try to emulate Timex/durrrrr who I sometimes rub up the wrong way. It's definitely not something j should do though and it's inexcusable.

I like to be honest in the blog so when in WSOP I wrote a lot about fish from all over America inviting me to private games because of how well I interacted with them i think it's important to come clean and admit when I've perhaps been out of line.

It's not something I do a lot at all, but I just wanted to post to give myself some accountability about it and to remind myself in the future not to do it again either. I remember last year in Malta when I went to high five the fish who just two outered me. Sometimes we (I) do silly things and it shows a sign of not being completely composed and in control of everything, but when you're talking every hand and speaking a lot and trying to use it to your advantage it's easy to get caught in the heat of the moment.

Just remembered one last hand from the trip which got me in trouble.

I raise pre, two fish call in the eureka high roller.

Flop 943ddx bb leads, I min raise AQ, he calls.
Turn 943ddx T, check check
River 943TQ , check, I pot

He's tanking and I saw wow maybe I'm bluffing with the best hand, that would be sick. He looks at me confused and I snap turn over the Ace. He looks at me, laughs, and calls. I show him the queen and he mucks. I get a 5 hand penalty! Seems a little harsh, but probably +ev for me!

[SuuPRlim]

so tilting these "how much you playing?" "MORE THAN YOU" people

THAT WAS NOT THE FUCKING QUESTION!!!!!!!

[teddybloat]

Sorry I was in session when replying about the JTs.

Let's assume:

Button opens 2x (population read). (40%)
We 3bet our range in the sb to 5.7x. (18%)
Button jams Aq/22+

We make

23.5bbs with AA
9.2bbs with 99
5.2bbs with AKo
0.02bbs with KQo
1.57bbs with KQs
2.05bbs with JTs
1.21bbs with ATs
0.99bbs with JTs


Our opponents will naturally start opening the button tighter when we 3bet this wide (population 3bet here is 12 not 18) and thus we will get more lower variance spots to steal bvb. We force bb to fold a tonne of hands that call and share equity when we passively defend. We allow ourselves chances to win vs jt/kq/kj etc post flop when he calls our 3bet and we both flop nothing (normally we c/f oop here) we make hands like A8/97s/qto and lots and lots of hands (he's raising 40% so we make him fold at least 50% of his opening hands and if he does were auto profiting) that have good equity against us and when our range gets it in vs his we have good equity and we're making money.

are those numbers the overall EV of 3betting NAI or just the raw equity outputs for GII v their 4bet range?

JTs plays very well 3 way, you arent normally c/f with JTs as you will make second pair+ or an OESD / FD / combo draw 53% of the time - that doesnt include gutshots.

hitting those draws 3 way is incredibly valuable.

it would take reads for me to want to 3bt NAI JTs.

would love to see some decent sample for results of 3bt NAI with it - its not something i'd have ever considered.

[SuuPRlim]

It was just because of the conversation with Alex on previous page. Thought would be fun to post.

#pokerbanter

found the responses genuinely interesting.

[pleno1]

Streamed my Tuesday session for the stable. Had a deep run in Super Tuesday. Came 20th, played great but lost 3 very important flops when I was 3/25. Flipping with Faraz Jaka not recommended apparently. Fly back to Prague tomorrow night.

[pleno1]

Woke up st 5:40pm for 7:30 flight! Managed to somehow scramble onto the plane and was met in Prague by Adam and European for dinner. Dinner escalated into playing pool with some guys from Yorkshire we met. It was really refreshing for no poker talk at all and we all had a good laugh for a few hours.

It's weird because people assume that all I want to talk about is poker, but the truth is I'd way prefer to be with non poker players and forget it all when I'm not playing. It's really important to have a balanced social circle and I've always made an effort to either be in a sports team or find other people out of poker to spend time with. Especially when you're on downswings you can become really bitter.

Plans for being home for next 2 weeks are basically just meet a lot of family and friends most days and catch up on a lot of coaching for the stable that I missed in first 2 weeks of month.

We hired a CEO now, not sure if I'm supposed to say who it is or not, so I won't for now, but we are very happy with the appointment.

Moving forward into January. I'll skip PCA and Aussie Millions and work hard for the start of the year so I can mentally feel better taking shots as the year goes on rather than starting -50k!

Friend sent me application form for the Apprentice. Pretty funny, I think they always look for new characters rather than corporate guys who are all alike and saying stuff like "former number 1 ranked worldwide poker player"  "CASHED 3m in last 3 years" "company turnover of over 50m (cashes)" and lots of other stuff is actually probably a lot more true than the stuff the actually contestants put on. As I was answering the questions I began to think more and more that they would really enjoy the whole "risk taker" profile I could build and push. Then last and most critical was the "what is your business plan that you would want lord sugar to invest 250k into" maybe bitB Staking will announce a new share holder in 2016!

[pleno1]

Ok, going to start tracking what I bet and post it up here for a little bit of a sweat, maybe people want to bet too for fun with me and use the pads run good. I will sometimes post reasons behind why I'm choosing what I'm choosing which will be very far from a tipping site advice POV Its nice to keep track of everything and see how I do. Hopefully will do at least 1 bet a week so it keeps somewhat updated regularly. One betting unit will be £50

Saturday 19th December

Stoke to beat Crystal Palace
Everton to beat Leicester


Odds, 5.2
Placed: £100 (two betting units)
Potential return: £512.50

Reasons for betting: I wanted to bet two premierships games to give a decent return yet not too optimistic. Hopefully the "sweat" will be live for the entire duration of the game so will be fun to watch as both are home teams. Both games are very interesting so also fun games to rail.

I think that Pardew is running hotter than the Sun right now, Palace away form this year has been really, really good, but I think they've been somewhat lucky in their distribution of goals, their strikers have performed poorly and Palace have gotten a lot of goals from mistakes and set pieces, I think Stoke are set up well, they have 7 clean sheets out of the last 9 games and were very good last week when they beat Man City 2-0 at home. Stokes last 4 home games they've won 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0.

Everton have imo one of the best managers in the league, I think he's very good at tactical games against opposing managers. I remember at home he sets his teams up very well and I think they will deal well with Leicester. I think Leicester are particualry vulnerable in defence against quick players and think Simpson is a big liability. They work hard, but I think Everton will have too much for them. Everton were sloppy in their last home game, but I think this time they will do well.

[tonytats]

Why do you think Everton are going to suddenly play better ? Against a team that are red hot at the moment !
I like the Stoke part of the bet but not betting against Leicester with at best a team that have only played average this season !
Stoke at home are usually a good bet not sure I would want to bet with or against Leicester tho ,sooner or later they will lose ? Won't they ? Bit like a line of reds on roulette you know a black or zero is coming in soon it's just a matter of when

[PathFinder]

Bit like a line of reds on roulette you know a black or zero is coming in soon it's just a matter of when

Gamblers Fallacy

Looking forward to the betting sweats win or lose!

[tikay]

Ok, going to start tracking what I bet and post it up here for a little bit of a sweat, maybe people want to bet too for fun with me and use the pads run good. I will sometimes post reasons behind why I'm choosing what I'm choosing which will be very far from a tipping site advice POV Its nice to keep track of everything and see how I do. Hopefully will do at least 1 bet a week so it keeps somewhat updated regularly. One betting unit will be £50

Saturday 19th December

Stoke to beat Crystal Palace
Everton to beat Leicester


Odds, 5.2
Placed: £100 (two betting units)
Potential return: £512.50

Reasons for betting: I wanted to bet two premierships games to give a decent return yet not too optimistic. Hopefully the "sweat" will be live for the entire duration of the game so will be fun to watch as both are home teams. Both games are very interesting so also fun games to rail.

I think that Pardew is running hotter than the Sun right now, Palace away form this year has been really, really good, but I think they've been somewhat lucky in their distribution of goals, their strikers have performed poorly and Palace have gotten a lot of goals from mistakes and set pieces, I think Stoke are set up well, they have 7 clean sheets out of the last 9 games and were very good last week when they beat Man City 2-0 at home. Stokes last 4 home games they've won 2-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0.

Everton have imo one of the best managers in the league, I think he's very good at tactical games against opposing managers. I remember at home he sets his teams up very well and I think they will deal well with Leicester. I think Leicester are particualry vulnerable in defence against quick players and think Simpson is a big liability. They work hard, but I think Everton will have too much for them. Everton were sloppy in their last home game, but I think this time they will do well.

Morning BITB.

I'm pretty sure I'll regret this, but I wanted to give some thought on your betting ideas. You help us with poker tips, so here's some betting "tips".

As you know, TfT has taught many of us, certainly me, a great deal. A return of 5.6% over a sample size of 5,300 bets speaks for itself - many Pro punters would be happy with numbers like that.

First up, allowing our personal likes & dislikes to help form opinions will cost us dearly in the long run. You have a "thing" about Pardew (along with many others) but allowing that to sway our judgement is a bad thing.

Next, spotting winners is fine & dandy, but spotting VALUE is far more important. Am not dissing you at all, but you have often put suggestions up on Fred without a target price. Never ever bet without first assessing if the price reps value. (I did that for 20 years, & most still do, which is why the bookies get the lot).

We may think, say, Man C are a good thing at home to Villa, & yes, they would be. But at what price do Villa or the draw become the value bet? There IS a price at which we should get against Man C in this match up.  

Here's an example which supports both my points.

Dubai, aka David Shallow, is one of THE most cute sports bettors I have ever come across. He is super shrewd. He is also an avid Arsenal fan.

2 years ago, Arsenal were due to play Man U, & he was all over Arsenal, "let's have a good bet on Arsenal", as was, by chance, Camel. During the day, Arsenal's price kept firming up, & as a result, United's price kept getting bigger. To my amazement, minutes apart, both Dubai & Camel flip-flopped. They both now suggested - "at these prices we have to bet Man U". Could you do that?  

Look for the value first, not the winner.

NEVER bet without assessing the value, value is a far more critical component of betting than selecting winners. And that is why the Bookies are minting it. The vast majority of punters don't even look at the price.

Good luck with the punting, hope you get the lot.    

EDIT - forgot to mention - be VERY careful doing doubles. If both prices are genuine "value", then yes, do doubles all day & night. But in most cases they are not good value, so these are BAD BETS, you are just multiplying the bookies edge. . Bookmakers LOVE punters who do doubles, trebles & accas. Love them. There's a reason for that.

Take all this back to basics. The bookies have a built-in margin. Let's call that 10%. You have to find a way to negate that margin. That's where "value" comes in.   

[POWWWWWWWW]

Pads did you see the joey podcast with Liqqa regarding edgebetting?

[pleno1]

Been busy being back at home for Christmas but cliffs:

Poker:

Came 6th in the $600 whale and won a Dublin package for a decent Sunday but was very unfortunate on 888 final not to close. Was decently happy though.

Betting:

Pokerstars won't let me bet the double this week and won't let me get moving forward either. Not going to make a new account somewhere else to start betting so unless stars change their site for me will just leave that for now unfortunately.. Or perhaps fortunately

[pleno1]

@tikay I definitely wasn't trying to do the "best bets of the weekend" I was trying to just bet on games that I'd enjoy sweating, would be good game for the neutral and for teams I slightly prefer. Doubles work nicely because get a decent return for the money. Thanks for all the tips though, they should definitely be rammed down the throats of 99.999% of people who are betting trying to make money (me few years ago!)

[pleno1]

Been fun at home, its gone pretty quickly. Had a nice Christmas, been out with friends a couple of times. Won a 5000bb pot in a limped pot in casino which was a big sweat, but couldn't fold the tt65 on t92 3 way for over 1500bbs each

Had a good Sunday, lots of good stacks and chopped the Sunday Special on stars.fr as big stack and got way more than I should have got for around 18k.

Stable did well, won that crazy $10 phase tournament for $15k and won the ACR major for $30k. Good end to the year.

Birthday in a couple of days and obviously New Years eve, so guess I won't play again anymore until the New Year.

Its been a pretty crazy year, loved it though, things are starting t become a bit more clearer in terms of the direction I want to go in my life.

[pleno1]

Enjoyable Sunday back on the virtual felt in Hungary. Won a EPT Package for around 6k but more importantly had a lot of deep runs, SWU, .FRSWU, Million, cashed a few other things, bubbled a few, had really good stacks everywhere and felt like I played a solid 7/10.

Made a bet that by WSOP I am in the best fitness position of my life, will be working really hard. Obviously everybody posts this at the start of the year, but I offered 50% of my WSOP 2016 Main event at 1.0 markup, so I'm pretty incentivised to grind my ass off in and out of the gym.

This year will be all about being wellthy. WELLthy, I will eat well, train well and try to sleep well. The plan was always to start from January 4th and I'll send some pictures to the guy and do a run tomorrow and see how far/fast I can do without wanting to stop. A lot of this has been about self drive, I will try to build that up too.

Looking forward a lot to this.