The Best In The Business

[Ant040689]

Whilst I would agree with the idea that people are often blaming luck on there misfortunes when it's actually bad decision making it's kinda silly to say #youmakeyourownluck with regards to being a Poker Pro or a Professional Footballer, esp poker though, it's just not the case.

Could you explain further please, as I don't quite get your point?

[GreekStein]

Whilst I would agree with the idea that people are often blaming luck on there misfortunes when it's actually bad decision making it's kinda silly to say #youmakeyourownluck with regards to being a Poker Pro or a Professional Footballer, esp poker though, it's just not the case.

Could you explain further please, as I don't quite get your point?

I think Ray's point is pretty clear.

Luck can still play a pretty huge factor in poker and one's results. Why do you think Tikay has been playing 1204343 years but still not won an EPT?

[pleno1]

i disagree strongly, will post later after sesh.

[George2Loose]

I mean luck can be used an excuse to not get better- I understand that cos I was doing it consistently when I was moaning about beats

But when you grind nothing but turbo's I understand why Ray believes in luck!

[mondatoo]

Whilst I would agree with the idea that people are often blaming luck on there misfortunes when it's actually bad decision making it's kinda silly to say #youmakeyourownluck with regards to being a Poker Pro or a Professional Footballer, esp poker though, it's just not the case.

Could you explain further please, as I don't quite get your point?

I mean there's just so much luck involved in numerous different ways with Poker that you can have no control over no matter what you do, obv.

For instance, when I first started out I ran good and did well at the start which gave me the self confidence to then deal with downswings etc. It's very possible, a certainty actually, that somebody who was as good if not better than me, had just as much ability as me and put in just as much work as me but they snap ran bad when they started out and would've thought it was because they were just terrible when really they just ran bad. They'll have quit because of lack of knowledge about variance and lack of belief which comes with experience; an extremely high % of people that have went onto play poker for a living would've also quit if they'd had the same starting experience imo. A lot of good regs in 180s who have played a relevant sample have gone through a 10k game breakeven stretch, I doubt there's many people that could start playing poker and not quit before reaching that 10k game point. As for MTTs, ermm, just lolz

I was lucky that I ran well to start with, they weren't.

Same with Footballers though, there's many people out there who had the skills and the dedication to make it but just never got scouted or had that lucky break.

There's tons of hidden luck in life, it's one of just many factors in success or failure though.

[George2Loose]

I understand what you're saying Ray but actually disagree with a lot of it

[Ant040689]

I see your points monda, but everyone deserves to be where they are in poker/football, imo. If you have enough skill and careful application you can overcome nearly every obstacle attributable to variance in both fields.

[pleno1]

good day, chopped the big 109 for 32.5k and then went on to win it for the plbs. final tabled 100 2x chance and 55 6max for another 8k or so and had a bunch of other cashes.

[pokerfan]

We're not worthy !

[SuuPRlim]

People say that luck "evens itself out" over the span of a lenghty poker career are defo defo defo wrong IMO.

Best to just accept that you'll have no control over that and play the cards you're given (pardon the pun!)

Grats again Patrick, too fkn good

[david3103]

Random(ish) thoughts on luck

As Gary Player once said "People say I'm lucky, but the thing is, the harder I practice, the luckier I get"

The Luck Factor by Richard Wiseman postulates that people who appear to be lucky are actually just more attuned to the opportunities to be so.

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

Oh, and it is true that variance is unlikely to even out in any lifetime.

If all your exit hands are 'bad beats' you're probably playing a little too cautiously.

Another inspiring set of results Pads. Utter respect for the work you so obviously put in to this most infuriating and stimulating game.

[verndog158]

Have been reading with interest.
Agree with both sides of the argument, and can relate to the sport side of things that pads talks about. Was on the verge of being a professional cricketer from when i was 17-20, playing cricket with/ against people who were playing test cricket at the time. Grown up with guys, and from the age of 12 you knew they would be playing it for a living. A very good mate of mine, Daniel Bell-Drummond is that to a tee, always class and was always going to be awesome. now playing  and scoring runs for fun at the top. Think with sport its a 5050 split between natural talent and work ethic, as well as being in the right place at the right time. I certainly feel i was good enough to make it, but think a couple of the coaches didnt rate me/ thought others were better so therefore i didnt get the chances. THats luck. Politics of professional sport is outrageous really, and often they come before whether the guy is actually any good or not.

In terms of being afraid to fail, i actually disagree entirely with this reasoning behind not going to Vegas, think Bobafett makes this point too. Am surprised you feel like this, especially given your background in sport, where fear of failure is one thing that means so many people dont actually make it. Seems a little weird how you are in the form of your life, running good, yet dont want to go to the most prestigious poker series in the world and make a real name for yourself. YEah you might not, but ultimately if you dont go, you certainly cant. You dont want to be looking back in 1/2/x years down the line and regretting it.

WP yesterday, was railing for a bit i the 109, thought you were down and out with 6bbs left with 20 in!

[AlunB]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18891749

[NEWY]

Whilst I would agree with the idea that people are often blaming luck on there misfortunes when it's actually bad decision making it's kinda silly to say #youmakeyourownluck with regards to being a Poker Pro or a Professional Footballer, esp poker though, it's just not the case.

Could you explain further please, as I don't quite get your point?

I mean there's just so much luck involved in numerous different ways with Poker that you can have no control over no matter what you do, obv.

For instance, when I first started out I ran good and did well at the start which gave me the self confidence to then deal with downswings etc. It's very possible, a certainty actually, that somebody who was as good if not better than me, had just as much ability as me and put in just as much work as me but they snap ran bad when they started out and would've thought it was because they were just terrible when really they just ran bad. They'll have quit because of lack of knowledge about variance and lack of belief which comes with experience; an extremely high % of people that have went onto play poker for a living would've also quit if they'd had the same starting experience imo. A lot of good regs in 180s who have played a relevant sample have gone through a 10k game breakeven stretch, I doubt there's many people that could start playing poker and not quit before reaching that 10k game point. As for MTTs, ermm, just lolz

I was lucky that I ran well to start with, they weren't.

Same with Footballers though, there's many people out there who had the skills and the dedication to make it but just never got scouted or had that lucky break.

There's tons of hidden luck in life, it's one of just many factors in success or failure though.


Totally disagree with the football analogy.  If you are good enough you will be spotted at 1 time or another.  If you don't get scouted or get the lucky break you just aren't good enough I'm afraid. There is no way if you are a top player you will slip through the nets. Even more so today as they are scouting games from under . 

[AlunB]

Whilst I would agree with the idea that people are often blaming luck on there misfortunes when it's actually bad decision making it's kinda silly to say #youmakeyourownluck with regards to being a Poker Pro or a Professional Footballer, esp poker though, it's just not the case.

Could you explain further please, as I don't quite get your point?

I mean there's just so much luck involved in numerous different ways with Poker that you can have no control over no matter what you do, obv.

For instance, when I first started out I ran good and did well at the start which gave me the self confidence to then deal with downswings etc. It's very possible, a certainty actually, that somebody who was as good if not better than me, had just as much ability as me and put in just as much work as me but they snap ran bad when they started out and would've thought it was because they were just terrible when really they just ran bad. They'll have quit because of lack of knowledge about variance and lack of belief which comes with experience; an extremely high % of people that have went onto play poker for a living would've also quit if they'd had the same starting experience imo. A lot of good regs in 180s who have played a relevant sample have gone through a 10k game breakeven stretch, I doubt there's many people that could start playing poker and not quit before reaching that 10k game point. As for MTTs, ermm, just lolz

I was lucky that I ran well to start with, they weren't.

Same with Footballers though, there's many people out there who had the skills and the dedication to make it but just never got scouted or had that lucky break.

There's tons of hidden luck in life, it's one of just many factors in success or failure though.


Totally disagree with the football analogy.  If you are good enough you will be spotted at 1 time or another.  If you don't get scouted or get the lucky break you just aren't good enough I'm afraid. There is no way if you are a top player you will slip through the nets. Even more so today as they are scouting games from under . 

Surprised nobody has raised the concept of "skill" yet either as it relates to poker or football. Many would argue that natural ability doesn't even exist to a meaningful extent. And that obviously makes the "luck" factors (date of birth, peer group, access to facilities, early stage coaching, parental support etc etc) have a much more significant impact on your ability to succeed.