The Best In The Business

[pleno1]

Lots of good opinions and things to reply to later.

[moustache]

It's fascinating that this topic still causes more replies and a variety of replies than almost any other. It seems that most people are vary wary of offering advice to gamble in case the person who takes that advice can't control it, and rightly so. It also seems that of the person is very good at poker and not very good at studying then it is a good decision to make, if the person is very good at studying and on track for a great career and not so great at poker then it is an awful decision, and if the person is a bit shit at both then the degree will give them the best chance of not being a bum. (Credit goes to Evilpie for most of those statements) The successful pros in the modern game seem to be a bit more open to the possibility that this guy has of success and of the benefits of the lifestyle that go along with it (or lack of drawbacks that have been suggested)

[EvilPie]

Not sure I buy this stuff about top graduates pissing on poker earnings also.

My classmates at school are oxbridge graduates in big finance jobs in the city, all super motivated and hard working, and at 27/28 I'd be surprised if they're clearing £70k a year before tax. Maybe that number will go up to £100k at 35 and £200k+ at 45? This is all taxed. So net of tax lucky to take home 6 figures in their forties.

The top poker players are pissing on those numbers.

It might not last for ever, but they say every year it's getting tougher and it is, but you've just gotta work harder or look harder for the spots. And I'm sure it's the same in the business world, competition gets tougher and tougher, margins smaller and smaller.

That's because you're looking at mediocre numbers not the top numbers. Your mates may have great Oxbridge degrees but they didn't fall in to the top jobs, just decent ones. You're comparing average city earners to the top poker players who not only had the talent but also got the breaks necessary to make the top money.

I guarantee that for every Fedor earning chunks at poker there will many graduates in the City earning significantly more.

Where do you think the top earning poker player of all time would sit on the list of top earning city graduates of all time? You think he'd make the top ten? I doubt it.

[nirvana]

tbf, the advice being debated is pretty self evidently correct if one accepts the advice is being given to clear winners at the game who have the goal of making more money, more quickly

ie You are already a winning player, cut the distractions, win more and turn your hobby into your job.

It's crap advice if it's given to a broader community of winners and losers or to people with broader interests than the pursuit of cash.

[EvilPie]

tbf, the advice being debated is pretty self evidently correct if one accepts the advice is being given to clear winners at the game who have the goal of making more money, more quickly

ie You are already a winning player, cut the distractions, win more and turn your hobby into your job.

It's crap advice if it's given to a broader community of winners and losers or to people with broader interests than the pursuit of cash.

Yeah but by summarising it so perfectly you don't help the Blonde post count.

[nirvana]

http://www.bitb-staking.com/2016/11/10/what-if/

I wrote this on the plane. What do you guys think? Bullshit? Agree?

Life is a long, long, road. I'd bet all the tea in China that you'll not be able to earn much money in poker after you reach your, say, mid-forties. By which point you now need an income for the next 30 or 40 years

With all due respect, if able to make minimum of 3x (5x+ when you consider no tax)for 25 years why would somebody need an income for the next "30-40 years"

Unfortunately I don't think I'll be able to make money when I'm 40 playing poker by if I can I certainly wouldn't be searching for alternative income streams at 50.

Well you asked for opinions, & I gave them.

I know a decent number of 45, 50 & 60 year old poker players who have been relatively successful. Not "pleno successful", but, you know, did OK. I am struggling to think of more than a handful who don't need an outside income now. Poker players, for the most part, are gamblers, & I doubt many have squirelled away money for the future.   

A decent % of the long term poker payers I know are skinto, & always have been. Nature of the beast.

Sounds like they were among the best in the 90s and 2000s and then got lazy, didn't study, didn't improve and the game past them by and now they need other jobs to support themselves.

Being skint is not the nature of the beast, it's just being a degen. Managing your bankroll is a major part in being a pro.

The game passed them by.

Must admit since you've gotten into poker, sports betting and being a footie fan your grammar and spelling is much worse and you swear quite a lot compared to how you used to be - people pissing on numbers and such. It's pretty disappointing.

[nirvana]

tbf, the advice being debated is pretty self evidently correct if one accepts the advice is being given to clear winners at the game who have the goal of making more money, more quickly

ie You are already a winning player, cut the distractions, win more and turn your hobby into your job.

It's crap advice if it's given to a broader community of winners and losers or to people with broader interests than the pursuit of cash.

Yeah but by summarising it so perfectly you don't help the Blonde post count.

Haha, I just wanted to say something, anything - more interested in what the life of a gambler does to people - look at Alex - he's changed

[JGill_DTD]

Such a huge variety of factors before you can say either yes or no, and even then you can't be sure about how you are going to react to the lack of financial sustainability. It's all well and good saying BRM is a huge part of it and you need to master this, but early doors when you don't have a tonne of money regardless of how well you save a 2 year downswing - which is viable - is going to take up all of your resources and you have no idea how you will react to this regardless of how well you think you know yourself - and you can't truly know how well you will be supported as such times by those you need support from the most. Many people who doubted it initially will be in the "I told you so" camp which certainly doesn't help matters.

In the instance described in Pads post if this player doesn't feel like they will be fully motivated throughout Uni but wants to give everything to poker, has this support group to rely on who will be beyond helpful (BITB) and has current players at the top of their game suggesting they have the hunger and desire to "make it" and be who they want to be in the poker world then it's somewhat of a standard decision to lean towards poker being the optimal life choice.

At the same time if you don't have such a group to help you make a life choice as big as this one who truly know you and understand the way your mind works then you can only look to yourself for the answer, which is very dangerous and in probably all cases I would tell these people to pursue university otherwise it's a total guess and your mind will tell you what you want to hear - which in the case of the majority of 21 year olds who don't fancy the uni grind but see this perceived flexible poker lifestyle ego will take over for the most part rather than telling you maybe you can't make a living and be mentally strong enough for poker to be your profession.

[shipitgood]

Excellent post Youthkn.

The thing is, apart from your final year at University, it is not time consuming at all - and there is plenty of scope for poker. Not to mention all the holidays etc.

It seems kind of reckless of you to be even suggesting someone leaves University to play poker full time, especially given that this guy might look up to you as some kind of role model.

[arbboy]

Professional gamblers being called 'role models'!  i have heard it all now!  Next thing we will be signing autographs outside DTD whilst taking our fanboys money inside at the tables.

[muckthenuts]

As someone who used to play seriously through uni and is now nearing 28, I can tell you most of the people my age who ended up sticking with poker as opposed to completing uni//getting a job do not seem to be the happiest people today.

[arbboy]

It seems kind of reckless of you to be even suggesting someone leaves University to play poker full time, especially given that this guy might look up to you as some kind of role model.

Agreed.

 Really enjoy this blog but disagree with the article. It could potentially steer some young man down the wrong path.

Why would any professional gambler care about that? They are just another customer entering the jungle to chance their arm.

Would it be equally reckless to tell a talented sportsman or singer to quit uni to chase a huge pot of gold which is equally unlikely?

[pleno1]

Sorry, haven't had time to reply yet but definitely will.

Fwiw some may need to read it in its entirety (I know it's uncomfortably long) but this is a guy I'm mentoring and a guy I know well and isn't (as I say) some random guy in a university poker society.

[SuuPRlim]

I'm sure the guy is internally conflicted at the moment, but IMO he's making the decision from a fairly privileged position and seeking good advice doing it, doesn't really sound like he has much chance to go wrong tbh...

When you're young (early 20s) you get faced with these "THIS OR THAT" decisions all the time and because you haven't had THAT many of them up to now they feel really big. 7,6,8 years later you look back and realise that actually they weren't that big at all.  The more complex a life you chose, the more decisions you have to face, and one day you just realise that all you can do is deal with what's in front of you, use the information you have in that time and try pick the best route. Just like poker the commitment you give to the decision and a big dollop of fortune one way or the other will play a big part in how it works out.

This guy has two decisions, a) continue at university, we assume he's going to do something he like/is interested in and not just a random Geography so he can scrape a 2:1 for his "CV" in between getting whacked out on £1 jagerbombs, or b) continue playing poker, which pleno says he can make good money at, and we have to assume at this point pleno knows what he's talking about.

It doesn't really sound like much scope to make a bad call here, it should be fairly obvious that poker is the riskier decision, the lifestyle is dangerous (no-one can argue otherwise), risk of ruin is certainly there (no-one can argue otherwise) but short term upside is massive for him in the climate that he's described to be in, in 3 years time even with £100k in his rocket he's going to be in a very strong position, trust me going out into the world with a chunk of cash is a MONSTER advantage, I would say significantly more advantage (in general) than a uni degree, although that statement could be proven to be total rubbish by the revelation of what field he wants to study...

Uni certainly a much more secure option, if he is as smart as pleno says, and dedicated then he will really really find it hard to fail going down the standard route, that is after all why it's the standard route

Personally I would dissuade anyone from a pro gambling CAREER (important use of the word) as I think the risk >> reward element of choosing it as a career is massively off, the potential upsides are there no doubt, and ofc big, but risk of ruin given the nature of business and lifestyle is just too high imo.  However if you are going to play poker seriously then really you need to be young, enthusiastic and preferably single, you can have a great life and earn good money, even if only for a short period of time, it's certainly not a dumb move.

[SuuPRlim]

ALSO I think in these discussions people judge "real life" in a very linear manner, and poker in a very inaccurate mannor, examples from this thread from two very smart people...

Get to £100k a year by 35...
Seeing a guy you used to crush win aother $100,000...

Working life outside of pro gambling is much more complicated and diverse than poker, much, much, much more so and it's easy to lose sight of this when not involved. Its spoken about like the only potential is to get a job and make more and more money p/a of which ultimately 40% of each pay jump goes to the IR, this just isn't the case there are so many paths can you take once you are on the road. It's actually poker that is the completely linear financial path, yes you can stake people, crossbook, play yourself, bet sports whatever but at the end of the day you either win...or you lose... Anyone with a brain knows the guy hasn't "Just won another $100,000" and there a hell of lot more out there for smart people than "just trying to get to £100k salary by 35."

Important points, never discussed.