AQo OOP to 200nl reg

[Whollyflush]

Im confused, ppl mentioning c/f and stuff. We have position right?

If so your asking whether if we are checked to on the river whether we should jam for value or check behind?

River is close, most often when he checks the river people don't have a c/c river range after c/r and bombing turn, esp with it been so dry and only a few str8 draws out there. You have one read which suggests this opponent might have a c/c range OTR, which leads me to think jamming might be best. I guess its important to figure out if he c/r a merged range (QJ/KQ type hands) or just sets/gutterballs/airballs to distinguish how he thinks/style he plays.

[railtard1]

think im reading this hand wrong, either that or some others are!?!?!?

[jakally]

Im confused, ppl mentioning c/f and stuff. We have position right?

No..... he is C/O, we are BB.

[SuuPRlim]

Jam is better than a c/f imo

[AlexMartin]

history (you need to have shown down air and c/r bluffed/ semi-bluffed and fired 3 streets prior that he has seen to make this a clear, clear shove), image (are you winning/losing this sesh/is he- does that impact on his emotional state- will he bluff missed KJ fe) , wtsd (station tendencies- given ur vvv narrow for value), turn aggression (to see how he plays monsters).

[maryhadalamb]

The guy is a nit, opening 20%, he's open folding 78s and doesn't vbet thin. His river agg is probs ~20%? Seems like strereotypical weaktight player. River is a c/f, no way he pays off KQ I'd imagine, he won't bluff either. The cr flop line is probable questionable as he is just weak, not paranoid,  he's looking to make hero folds, not hero calls. c/c flop and can probs c/f coordinating turns, c/c bricks and c/decide river, leaning towards c/f.

[Whollyflush]

oh i misread HH, my bad. I think on this board i'd c/c aswell.

As played i think you can probably c/f the river against this guy.

[skolsuper]

Gotta say I find all these c/f replies pretty amazing. When did 21/17 start to mean the most insufferable nit in the universe? Against 18/14 or something yeah I don't c/r the flop but 21/17 with 20% CO steal is pretty middle of the road for a 200nl reg imo.

@Tommo: I think 20% includes 98s. That figure is his CO steal, his overall steal is 32%.

@Alex: Plenty of history, forgot to mention in OP but I had 3k hands on him at the time without any datamining. I played with him another 1k hands today and currently after 4k hands I am up 5 buyins on him despite being up only 5-4 in >50BB pots, so I'm assuming he probably sees me as very aggressive (probably somewhere near my actual stats of 28/22 on this sn lifetime).

[buzzharvey22]

Gotta say I find all these c/f replies pretty amazing. When did 21/17 start to mean the most insufferable nit in the universe? Against 18/14 or something yeah I don't c/r the flop but 21/17 with 20% CO steal is pretty middle of the road for a 200nl reg imo.

@Tommo: I think 20% includes 98s. That figure is his CO steal, his overall steal is 32%.

@Alex: Plenty of history, forgot to mention in OP but I had 3k hands on him at the time without any datamining. I played with him another 1k hands today and currently after 4k hands I am up 5 buyins on him despite being up only 5-4 in >50BB pots, so I'm assuming he probably sees me as very aggressive (probably somewhere near my actual stats of 28/22 on this sn lifetime).

so yer, i guess jamming river is right then?

[maryhadalamb]

Don't jam river unless you are trying to fold out an overpair!

[pleno1]

i agree, c/f

[GreekStein]

theres plenty of valid options imo, C/F not being one of them.

[railtard1]

theres plenty of valid options imo, C/F not being one of them.

agree.. i really cant see an argument for check folding this river.. AS PLAYED

[skolsuper]

Don't jam river unless you are trying to fold out an overpair!

So you would only ever jam river with quads or tens full here*, anything else is a bluff?

*I'm assuming you never get to the river in this way with a 7

[Whollyflush]

Don't jam river unless you are trying to fold out an overpair!

So you would only ever jam river with quads or tens full here*, anything else is a bluff?

*I'm assuming you never get to the river in this way with a 7

Its more an issue of balance If your playing this guy alot, its important you have some strong hands in your c/c range. If say you c/r AQ/KQ over 85% of the time, any1 observant will punish you for this and bomb 3streets almost regardless of board texture if there aware. Also this board is a good board to slowpay with very few scarecards ( Hes also likely to bomb cards good for his range but percieved bad for yours. ala the Ace). Given you think hes a TAG bot its unlikely he'll float and once he gets to the river your almost always toast vs some1 like this. The only way you can play this hand and jam river for value i if you have a very aggro/spewy image.