Prose from a Poshboy

[tikay]

Just a quick note.

I intend to watch breaking bad as a boxed set and I'm sure there are lots of others who haven't seen it yet, so could I ask everyone to keep spoilers and general discussion of that and other series to the relevant threads?  Pretty please?

They get married in the end, but he dies in a 'plane crash.

[VBlue]

Alex - what sort of a play/study schedule do you have, if you don't mind divulging.  And when studying/coaching, what sort of format do those sessions take?

[cambridgealex]

Alex - what sort of a play/study schedule do you have, if you don't mind divulging.  And when studying/coaching, what sort of format do those sessions take?

Not sure exactly what you mean, but I think I get the gist.

It's very informal, I play when I want, what I want, and I study just generally when I feel like it. Like last night I compared loads of my stats on HEM to PJs, for example, I wanted to see whether my frequencies were out of line in 3bet pots or I wanted to check that I didn't squeeze too much from the blinds. I realise I'm contributing to the death of online poker in doing this by the way, but what can I say, I'm a self-saboteur.

I do pha with housemates all the time and of course on here too.

I think discussing hands/trends/spots with people who crush the games you're playing and think very well and explain themselves very well has to be the best thing that you can do.  

[theprawnidentity]

Like last night I compared loads of my stats on HEM to PJs, for example, I wanted to see whether my frequencies were out of line in 3bet pots or I wanted to check that I didn't squeeze too much from the blinds.

solid

[VBlue]

Is there anybody whose work ethic you try to emulate or you look up to in terms of the effort they put in off the tables?  I guess I was trying to get at your balance between table hours and non-table hours.

Do you feel like you have a good balance?

[cambridgealex]

Is there anybody whose work ethic you try to emulate or you look up to in terms of the effort they put in off the tables?  I guess I was trying to get at your balance between table hours and non-table hours.

Do you feel like you have a good balance?

Well it's hard to put a number on it cos like I said it's all pretty informal, I think you could always do more though.

I don't know if there's anyone who puts in loads of work off the tables that I emulate. I don't think people do actually generally all that much.

There's tons of inspiring grinders out there, like most recently Middy, winning EPT saturday then grinding sundays the next day, winning sunday 500 next week. Some people grind insanely hard. But I don't know many people that put in tons of work off the table.

[cambridgealex]

Lots of people seem to be having huge scores back to back these days. Why?

I hate the term "form" in poker. I don't doubt the importance of confidence, after a result or a good few days/weeks I know I feel more confident in my game, but the logical part of my brain feels this must so much be down to variance.

I'd be interested in asking Nick about his sunday million win, or Middy about his sunday 500 win, whether they felt they played differently, or whether they think their win the week before helped them to be more fearless, in the zone, or whatever it may be.

It just seems so hard to even win one big tournament, winning two or more in quick succession just seems sub human.

I know so much is down to variance. Nick went years and years without a result, then two huge ones in a row. It's not like the ISPT will have taught him all these new tricks about how to play 3bet pots or whatever.

I think having a huge bankroll behind you must help a lot. So much easier to make that river bluff deep in a big comp when you've got a 6 figure roll behind you. So I guess that's a factor. So that's creates a snowball affect, which does seem to be happening in UK poker atm. The rich getting richer.

I'm sure lots of those guys will tell you that their mates who are busto and in $100k makeup are just as good players as them though! It's all so ridiculous - frustrating yet inspiring. All it takes is that one big result, and months, even years of grinding and losing can just get you out of it.

[zerofive]

Lots of people seem to be having huge scores back to back these days. Why?

I hate the term "form" in poker. I don't doubt the importance of confidence, after a result or a good few days/weeks I know I feel more confident in my game, but the logical part of my brain feels this must so much be down to variance.

I'd be interested in asking Nick about his sunday million win, or Middy about his sunday 500 win, whether they felt they played differently, or whether they think their win the week before helped them to be more fearless, in the zone, or whatever it may be.

It just seems so hard to even win one big tournament, winning two or more in quick succession just seems sub human.

I know so much is down to variance. Nick went years and years without a result, then two huge ones in a row. It's not like the ISPT will have taught him all these new tricks about how to play 3bet pots or whatever.

I think having a huge bankroll behind you must help a lot. So much easier to make that river bluff deep in a big comp when you've got a 6 figure roll behind you. So I guess that's a factor. So that's creates a snowball affect, which does seem to be happening in UK poker atm. The rich getting richer.

I'm sure lots of those guys will tell you that their mates who are busto and in $100k makeup are just as good players as them though! It's all so ridiculous - frustrating yet inspiring. All it takes is that one big result, and months, even years of grinding and losing can just get you out of it.

I know this is just musings, but really enjoyed reading this and have been wondering this myself for a while.

[VBlue]

Interesting responses.  Thanks Alex.

[stato_1]

Lots of people seem to be having huge scores back to back these days. Why?

Because you notice it when they do, and dont when they dont, which is almost always.

[david3103]

I think it's actually quite possible that 'form' plays it's part in poker. Obviously variance is a factor, but the mental state we're in is also important and having a sequence of deep runs is a reflection of ability as well as of run good.
At my lower level I know when I'm in my 'zone' and when I'm not. Again at a low level I had a run of 5 live cashes in a row recently, two at DTD (£100 miniDS and the Super50 on the same day) and then three in a row locally (smaller fields admittedly, but still..)
Contrarily, it's surely also possible to have a bad run in MTTs through playing bad rather than running bad.
There are marginal spots that make the difference in our results, when you're fully in form do you take these on and when confidence is low turn them down?
Is that realistic?

[redarmi]

Yeah what Stato said basically.  It is statistically likely to happen occasionally but we notice it more and attach significance to it when there is none.  If you look at someone like Middy he has probably played major tournaments on 3k+ occasions and won 25 or so (I am guessing but it seems reasonable) yet once he has won one he is only 250-1 or so to win the absolute next one but we are, in terms of this, probably picking another one within a week or so for the "back to back" so there might be 25 tournaments that could count so given his volume he is statistically more likely to go back to back every couple of years than not I would think.

[stato_1]

Sure you might play slightly better when you are confident, but in terms of increasing the likelihood of you winning a tournament, the effects will be relatively insignificant

[Pinchop73]

Black swan events. Statistical improbability's.

In Middy's case this piece of variance is justice for the brutality that the month of May brought to his life.

[cambridgealex]

Tonight I'm going to try something new. In the interest of learning and improving, I've decided to do something proactive as I really find I learn better when I'm doing something proactive like note-taking or talking, rather than passively watching something.

The 1k hiroller day 2 starts in an hour so I'm going to watch the tables of Keith, Doobs, PJ and Ryan and commentate on everything and try and analyse what's going on. I'll record it all and hopefully I will learn a thing or two from these guys and the other guys playing it. I don't know whether I'll upload it publicly, it's more for my own benefit and may well be totally rubbish so we'll just see how it goes.