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Author Topic: Diary Of A Fenland Punterer  (Read 143188 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #270 on: January 23, 2011, 02:15:39 PM »

Tipstering is a funny old game.

Nirvana has gone to Towcester this afternoon after deciding he's better at watching racing than poker.

So he asked me for a few tips on facebook last night. I went through one race at a time and typed something like, "LOLZ, Steven Boow has put Kinkeel in at 13/8 for the second!"

That was as far as I went with it. Kinkeel would never go off 13/8. Not even in a walkover.

Obv I've just got a text "LOL Kinkeel" after he won.

At 4/1 though I'd have been all over him if I was there. Backed him at 11.5 IR. Yes yes aftertiming!

Kinkeel IR is ABC stuff. Runs over two miles...lay him pre-race...back him when he comes off the bridle...then sit back and watch him grind past them up the hill. Yes yes aftertiming!
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« Reply #271 on: January 25, 2011, 04:54:43 PM »


No update?

Is Fenland closed today?
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« Reply #272 on: January 25, 2011, 05:59:04 PM »

I is struggling big styley for time at the moment.

When I gave my notice in to the Racing Post, I didn't realise it was two months' worth and also didn't realise they were going to work me to the max until early March. Can't blame them I guess.

So I'm now doing four spotlights a week for the next month and a half. Forgotten how much I like doing Spots. Before the weekend I hadn't done one for around 18 months but right back in the swing now. Comment for each horse and a betting forecast. Doing the betting forecast is the fun bit.

It's not really my time of year though and today I have mostly been studying hurdlers and chasers running tomorrow at...Musselburgh! WTF! I'm a sprint man through and through, so get to analyse Border Reiver and his buddies in a 2m4f handicap chase.

Errrrgo, no time to analyse all-in 9,000 shoves into pots of 400 at the moment. But my diary is a slow burner frequented by some of the country's top pro punterers...no rush...
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« Reply #273 on: January 25, 2011, 06:00:37 PM »

I is struggling big styley for time at the moment.

When I gave my notice in to the Racing Post, I didn't realise it was two months' worth and also didn't realise they were going to work me to the max until early March. Can't blame them I guess.

So I'm now doing four spotlights a week for the next month and a half. Forgotten how much I like doing Spots. Before the weekend I hadn't done one for around 18 months but right back in the swing now. Comment for each horse and a betting forecast. Doing the betting forecast is the fun bit.

It's not really my time of year though and today I have mostly been studying hurdlers and chasers running tomorrow at...Musselburgh! WTF! I'm a sprint man through and through, so get to analyse Border Reiver and his buddies in a 2m4f handicap chase.

Errrrgo, no time to analyse all-in 9,000 shoves into pots of 400 at the moment. But my diary is a slow burner frequented by some of the country's top pro punterers...no rush...

8,500, please.
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« Reply #274 on: January 25, 2011, 06:04:43 PM »

FFS!

I've always been anti-fractions in my betting forecasts but can't log on to the RP system at the moment, so am reliant on one of the Racing Post boys to alter my prices when the tipsters' selections come through at 5.30pm.

Some Spotlighters seem to believe forecasts look more 'professional' with fractions, like 13-8, 9-2 etc, but this is a rough guide. Meh to 13-8, stick him in at 7-4, and meh to 9-2, stick him in at 5-1. Get the over-round % down.

Forecasts always want amending when the tips come in. Say I've stuck something in the Musselburgh bumper in at 16-1 and then four tips, inc Templegate and Rob Wright, come in for it. No way it's ever going off that price, so it'll get chopped to 8-1.

So I asked a Post mate to change my prices and just got the following text...

"17-2. ROFFLE!"

FML, I am FUMMING!
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« Reply #275 on: January 25, 2011, 06:11:32 PM »

So, essentially, you're telling us to ignore the Spotlight for the next few months?
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« Reply #276 on: January 25, 2011, 06:13:09 PM »

Norrrrrrrr, all in tomorrow on Kaolak, Ballymacduff, Tyrone House and Felix Yonger. Never let it be said I don't like a twig-hopping favourite north of the border.
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« Reply #277 on: January 25, 2011, 06:15:58 PM »

Did you see the first at Leicester this afternoon? Remarkable effort by Sean Quinlon to keep Lucky Sunny out of the places.
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« Reply #278 on: January 25, 2011, 06:21:04 PM »

That ride from Quinlan was absurd, especially as I place laid the eventual third down the back straight.

Fair enough, the horse was not a proven stayer, had pulled very hard early and wouldn't have seen it out whatever (defo weakened near the finish) but it looked awful. You can't sit there motionless right up the home straight, including when level with the third over the last two hurdles. Quinlan's been around long enough to know better.

Colm McCormack was pretty tez at Ploughedfield too but that was just a complete misjudgement rather than anything suss.
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« Reply #279 on: January 28, 2011, 12:41:03 AM »

You see some of these IR prices flick up on betfair and think "WTF", but they're hard to catch most of the time.

Whoever laid 1000 about that McCoy winner at Warwick this afternoon is nuts. McCoy NEVER gives up. This was on a fancied runner in a small field race. Ridiculous. Serves him/them right really. Probably on-course boys.

Nearly chucked a few quid at him when he was around 20 down the back straight. It was around that time that he hit 1000. Who knows, might have got some of it. It's real split-second stuff. £33 or £44 at 1000? OK, thanks.

But I did manage to get matched on someone's fark up in the hunter chase at Thurles. Had place laid Viking Splash early at 2.16, then traded out for a no-loss at 7 mid-race. He never quite disappeared off the scene, though, and was closing in on the third going to the last. So I tried for £22 at 2 just to put twenty quid on the other side of the result. Those twenties and thirties add up over a day.

And it was matched. At 32! He finished third by a few lengths in the end. Someone had either clicked on the wrong horse or the lay side instead of the back side. For around £400. The other £380 wasn't matched and still available when the market suspended. That layer got lucky really.

Had I not traded early I'd have tried for maybe £44, £66 or £88 over the last and got a lot more of it. Grass is always greener obv.

Looking back at today my two main results came because someone else had farked up, which is becoming more of a trend on betfair the last year or so. The favourite for the Thurles maiden hurdles was the Jigginstown Stud horse with the blue cap, not the one in the first colours. Someone obv didn't realise and kept wanting to place lay. Then the hunter chase incident. Job done. In two tinpot races at Thurles.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2011, 12:34:33 PM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #280 on: January 28, 2011, 01:06:29 AM »

The mighty Posh have played 13 home matches this season. In those 13 games 61 goals have been scored at an average of going on five.

But the 'any other score' price on the betfair correct score market has nowhere near adjusted enough imo. In five of those games one team or other has scored the required four. We can't defend and have the best strike force in League 1. Still, even without McLean. In fact Tomlin is a big step up from McLean.

Any time we play a non top-six side at home this season I'm playing as long as the price is bigger than 4.5. Last weekend v Hartepool the price was 6.6. Because Hartlepool are pretty tight on the road. We beat them 4-0.

Has anyone looked into this? Definite angle imo. Am also thinking about Cardiff at home?
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« Reply #281 on: January 28, 2011, 01:53:03 AM »

Where did the poker report go?
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« Reply #282 on: January 28, 2011, 02:04:35 AM »

You see some of these IR prices flick up on betfair and think "WTF", but they're hard to catch most of the time.

Whoever laid 1000 about that McCoy winner at Warwick this afternoon is nuts. McCoy NEVER gives up. This was on a fancied runner in a small field race. Ridiculous. Serves him/them right really. Probably on-course boys.

Nearly chucked a few quid at him when he was around 20 down the back straight. It was around that time that he hit 1000. Who knows, might have got some of it. It's real split-second stuff. £33 or £44 at 1000? OK, thanks.

But I did manage to get matched on someone's fark up in the hunter chase at Thurles. Had place laid Viking Splash early at 2.16, then traded out for a no-loss at 7 mid-race. He never quite disappeared off the scene, though, and was closing in on the third going to the last. So I tried for £22 at 2 just to put twenty quid on the other side of the result. Those twenties and thirties add up over a day.

And it was matched. At 32! He finished third by a few lengths in the end. Someone had either clicked on the wrong horse or the lay side instead of the back side. For around £400. The other £380 was still not matched and still available when the market suspended. That layer got lucky really.

Had I not traded early I'd have tried for maybe £44, £66 or £88 over the last and got a lot more of it. Grass is always greener obv.

Looking back at today my two main results came because someone else had farked up, which is becoming more of a trend on betfair the last year or so. The favourite for the Thurles maiden hurdles was the Jigginstown Stud horse with the blue cap, not the one in the first colours. Someone obv didn't realise and kept wanting to place lay. Then the hunter chase incident. Job done. In two tinpot races at Thurles.

Why the peculiar amounts - £22, £44, £66, £88?
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« Reply #283 on: January 28, 2011, 02:11:19 AM »

You see some of these IR prices flick up on betfair and think "WTF", but they're hard to catch most of the time.

Whoever laid 1000 about that McCoy winner at Warwick this afternoon is nuts. McCoy NEVER gives up. This was on a fancied runner in a small field race. Ridiculous. Serves him/them right really. Probably on-course boys.

Nearly chucked a few quid at him when he was around 20 down the back straight. It was around that time that he hit 1000. Who knows, might have got some of it. It's real split-second stuff. £33 or £44 at 1000? OK, thanks.

But I did manage to get matched on someone's fark up in the hunter chase at Thurles. Had place laid Viking Splash early at 2.16, then traded out for a no-loss at 7 mid-race. He never quite disappeared off the scene, though, and was closing in on the third going to the last. So I tried for £22 at 2 just to put twenty quid on the other side of the result. Those twenties and thirties add up over a day.

And it was matched. At 32! He finished third by a few lengths in the end. Someone had either clicked on the wrong horse or the lay side instead of the back side. For around £400. The other £380 was still not matched and still available when the market suspended. That layer got lucky really.

Had I not traded early I'd have tried for maybe £44, £66 or £88 over the last and got a lot more of it. Grass is always greener obv.

Looking back at today my two main results came because someone else had farked up, which is becoming more of a trend on betfair the last year or so. The favourite for the Thurles maiden hurdles was the Jigginstown Stud horse with the blue cap, not the one in the first colours. Someone obv didn't realise and kept wanting to place lay. Then the hunter chase incident. Job done. In two tinpot races at Thurles.

Why the peculiar amounts - £22, £44, £66, £88?

I know the answer to that!!

But will let Choppy tell you as he was the one that taught me how to do it that way.
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« Reply #284 on: January 28, 2011, 03:06:17 AM »

Faster to type the same digits and press return than move all the way across to 0 in a world were every second is vital?
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