Diary Of A Fenland Punterer

[Josedinho]

Crossing my fingers Jedward are still to come.

[TightEnd]

Who wins Big Brother? 3 Jedward,3 Amy Childs,5 L Laviscount,15-2 Bobby Sabel,10 Kerry Katona,20 Tara Reid others on request #bet365

[mondatoo]

Yup, agree with that Jose.

Was thinking more in terms of who's going in. Nothing here I'd be desperate to watch so far. No McRiricks or Rodmans or Les Denniseses.

Can't be done Soviet.

How do they stop this ?

[Chompy]

Mainly out of principle. Refuse to give Betfair another £ unless they drop the PC, which is doubtful.

[TheChipPrince]

How much do you need to 'earn' before PC hits you?

[Chompy]

The new rules are...

More than 1000 lifetime bets
More than £250k career profitz
Not paid 40% in commission

Only takes in [  ] 0.1% of users

[boldie]

I like this rule;

Please note that for the purposes of calculating the charge we will assume that the charge has been in place since Betfair launched in June 2000. This means that we will consider all customers to have generated charges equal to at least 20%† of lifetime gross profits as of the 12th October 2009. However, this also means that for some customers, some or all of the £1,000 allowance against the charge will have been used prior to 12th October 2009 in order to offset hypothetical charges paid. Assuming hypothetical charges had been paid prior to introduction of the charge has the effect of reducing the amount that customers would typically incur.

Retroactive charges FTW.

[TheChipPrince]

Have they lost a lot of customers through the new charge do you think?

[Chompy]

Our views on this matter are quite a way apart...

[redarmi]

They've lost some for sure, not sure about 'lots.' People seem to be suggesting they'll move over to Daq as a result and volume has seemingly decreased on BF (although not conclusively so). Ultimately though I think most will stay, as 60% of a lot is still a lot and probably more than people could make elsewhere. There's a FB page setup against the charge with people on there saying they're no longer on Betfair but I doubt if all of them are even in the 40% PC bracket and also, the number declaring they're off Betfair is a very small minority. I know when (hopefully!) I reach 250k I won't be moving or leaving betting altogether...I imagine a lot, like me, will instead try and adapt around the charge (e.g. churn low ROI strategies in order to generate some levels of commission to offset the charge).

Would be surprised tbh if Betfair actually lose money due to this change, as much as I'd like them to - you could argue that in future this may discourage 'mugs' from joining the exchange if the prospect of riches isn't there in the first place.

Don't really see why whether you pay the PC or not is relevant.  I have >£150k of losses on my BF account but I won't bet there since they introduced this level of PC because it is unfair.

[adnmdv]

I'm not saying I'm happy with it and think they're perfectly justified in it (I think it's a move purely to inflate profits - despite their declared intentions, but they are a business after all), I'm just saying I'll be staying on anyway if I hit the 250k mark because not doing so is cutting off my nose to spite my face. If I leave, it'll have little effect on the chances of Betfair reversing the charge, so beyond 'fairness' reasons why would I, or others, leave? There's an even greater incentive imo for the bigger players to stay on. If you're making 250k a year, [income] tax free, why would you leave unless you can walk into another profession with the same pay?

Also, as I said, I do think *some* non-PC payers will leave as a result of the news (e.g. you), but unless the news reaches the general Betfair audience (because what % of the Betfair player pool atm is on top of the news?) AND people actually care about it, I doubt it'll have a massive impact. [/armchairanalysis]

[Chompy]

You're assuming you're never going to have a losing week?

If you're paying 40%, 50% or 60% on winning weeks and getting no allowance for a losing week, the numbers will never add up.

[Chompy]

I fancy another goalfest at London Road this afternoon.

We are starting to revert to type and Ipswich, who are ragged at the moment, are certain to put one or two past us. But we should win this and our games on telly always end up as shootouts.

Although there's no CMS now we are still full of goals and I'm getting on Posh to score 4+ at 11-1, and to score 5+ at 25-1. Fingers crossed Paul Taylor starts this time. Will top up if he does.

[redarmi]

An angle I have always liked is to bet teams in games where it is a big derby for one team but the other team doesn't really care/consider it to be a derby.  Would todays game count?  ie do Posh dislike Ipswich?  Big move for Posh a couple of minutes ago in Asia btw.

[action man]

the lizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzard