Big blind STT, 5 left, blinds huge

[thetank]

Not sure about winning and taking control though - there's 6,900 chips unaccounted for - is there a 'nitpick' smiley?

With 6k you can usually take control in these things. The fact that the other guy has 6k shouldn't matter to you after you nick the next set of blinds playing your "rush"

The pot odds are undoubtedly there but it's not really about that.

With blinds of 300/600 the difference between 1k and 1.8k is so so big. With the former you're resigning yourself to playing a pot to showdown, with the latter there's still a chance you can pick up the blinds (and antes that I forgot to mention) without contest.

[Wardonkey]

Your on the small next, if you don't play that you have 1100 chips, who is going to pass for an 500 chip raise? When do the blinds go up? The difference between 1000 and 1800 is not so great. Either way you are in the pooo!

[thetank]

Your on the small next, if you don't play that you have 1100 chips, who is going to pass for an 500 chip raise? When do the blinds go up? The difference between 1000 and 1800 is not so great. Either way you are in the pooo!

You'll have 1475 chips (sorry about no mentioning the antes earlier) if you pass and pass your small blind, not 1100. People can fold to a 850 raise. (Most of the time they probably shouldn't but they can pass)
Most of the time, if it's passed to you you'll be raising in the small blind anyway, this raise will be a 1175 question rather than a 375 auto-call.

I maintain that the extra 800 chips make a big difference here.
Blinds go up in three minutes so still a few rounds to be played at 300/600.

[Royal Flush]

That takes us into the realms of the changing value of chips and I have no idea how to calculate the impact of that.

That is what is important here. Chips change value shed loads in STT's this has to be a fold.

[tikay]

"chips change value....."

Explanation please Flushy. We all know what the phrase means, but many of us struggle to grasp it properly.

[Royal Flush]

I can't right now, got Caitlins (Jane's daughter) birthday meal but when i am on later i will do my best to explain.

[12barblues]

That takes us into the realms of the changing value of chips and I have no idea how to calculate the impact of that.

That is what is important here. Chips change value shed loads in STT's this has to be a fold.

I agree that the change in value is significant, which is why I initially thought it was an easy fold.  Now I'm not so sure.

If there is no overpair, i.e. 4 overcards, the 63s equity gets close to 30% (unless I'm cocking up the calcs) which really surprised me until I realised where the second best hand's equity is coming from, i.e. from the best hand, not 63s.  Pot odds of 4.625 to 1 = 18% equity required (1/5.625), so the margin in this case is not trivial. In the case of one overpair it is roughly EV neutral. Across the whole range it seems that the call is +EV ignoring the change in chip value.

Whether this positive expected value is enough to counter the increasing value of each chip lost as your stack goes down is way beyond my capacity to even begin to estimate. Is anyone aware of any programs that calculate this 'chip EV'?

E&OE.......caveat emptor.......etc, etc.......if this is complete b*****ks

P.S. I'm bottling out of explaining why chips change value as TK has volunteered you for the task 

Edit: 'chip EV' is actually the opposite of what I'm trying to describe, which is the proportion of the prize pool the chips are worth. Help!

[thetank]

P.S. I'm bottling out of explaining why chips change value as TK has volunteered you for the task 

Me too, don't fancy explaining it and as Royal Flush says he's up for it later, who am I to steal his thunder.

[Royal Flush]

Right....


Here goes, we agreed in the first example a fold was pretty much the wise option.

The 2nd example appears attractive but i will try to prove it is wrong. (with 4 left)

So with 4 left we have 2400 left, UTG moves in for 1400 button 4k and so the small blind the rest (10,200 i am assuming it was 9 players and 2k, it doesnt really matter, point is he has a big stack)

Now UTG moves in for 1400, his holding doesnt have to be very strong, he will have to post away over half his stack in the next 2 hands, and he can still force a fold as long as no-one has a hand. The button then calls, leaving 2.6k, so he is willing to make himself a short stack with his holding, with 2 players still to act.

Now we have this decision we have 1800 left, its 800 to call.

If we fold what happens?

If the UTG wins he is on 3700, the button will be on 2600 and we will be on 1800 in the SB, this is not a nice scenario, the SB is hardly likely to give us an easy time when he knows no-one is likely to risk the bubble. However if he folds we can nick the BB from our SB position, the BB would have to call 1500 to win the 1200 already in, and given the tight situation its a good chance he will fold. We will be back to 2400 and be on the button, not a bad situation.

If the Button wins, he will be on 6300, the button will be on 10k and we are in a poor spot with 1800, however we are now assured of 20% of the prize pool. And with 1800 we can still double up to a resonable stack, if we move in the next hand we might get a fold, if we dont get a fold then we will be out a little more than half the time, but double the rest of the time, 3600 vs 10k vs 4.5k, and now we can play. Hyper aggresive whilst the 10k waits for us 2 too fight.

Now if we call....

We cripple ourselves, left on 1k. However we are in a very nice pot, 4500 with 1k back. However we have 63 sooooted. Not exactly a monster, we have no idea what we are looking to flop, and we dont have enough to protect our hand post flop, i am thinking that the button has a pair above our 6, or worse still 66, then 2 overs against the UTG. I fancy our equity here is about 20% so we are getting the 'odds' to play (ignoring the reverse implied odds of the 1k left)

HOWEVER, if we lose this hand 4/5 times we are down to 1k with 300 in the sb str8 away, now if the button wins the hand then at least we are in the cash, but with no real chance of better than 3rd (excluding a card rush) if the UTG wins the hand we are in deep shite. We have no chips and no FE, we are almost certain to bubble.

If we win though we are in a very good shape, 5500 against a 2600 and a 10k, however what does that buy us? i fancy its a 2nd place really, some of the time we will win it, some of the time we will come 2nd. So its fair to say out prize pool equity is something around 30%.

By calling and making this 4-1 gamble, all we really do is increase our expectation by a few % even though we more than double up. This is the nature of STT's, the CL has 10k, more than half the chips in play, however the MAX he can win is 50% of the prize pool. So each one of his chips is worth far less than the 1800 we have.

Now i would present the arguement that our 1800 chips with say a 60% chance of seeing the SS go out and thus gaining at least 20% and a chance to win more (remember we can make players fold with this stack, we cant with 1000) this 4-1 shot only increase our equity from the low 20's to the low 30's

I know thats not a great explanation of 'chips changing value' i have used an example which tied my hands somewhat but i feel i cant explain it anywhere near aswell as someone like skalansky (do a google search for how he explains it) hopefully if you have a vague understanding of it my example might have made it a little more clear.

[thetank]

In the actual tournament in question there were 5 left and I folded.

I was confident this was correct but was unsure of what to do 4 handed. Flushys certainly given me some food for thought. Players started with 1,500 chips rather than 2k so I think winning the hand would give nearer 40% of the prize pool equity rather than the 30% Flush said.

[Royal Flush]

Yeah with 5 left its a clear fold i feel, with 4 left chip equity comes into.

The actual chips etc are not important, its just an example that shows when you are getting 'pot odds' but a call is clearly -ev at the same time.

[12barblues]

....the CL has ....... more than half the chips in play, however the MAX he can win is 50% of the prize pool.

Hit the nail on the head.

And where has the 'missing' prize pool equity gone? To the short stack(s). If a shortie sneaks into 3rd place with a single chip or 0.001% of the total chips he gets 20% of the prize pool. That single chip is 'worth' 4000 'starting' chips if there are 20,000 chips in total.

I can picture the shape of a two-dimensional graph of chip EV versus prize pool EV (although I wouldn't know how to calibrate the axes of the graph) but how do we deal with a multi-dimensional problem where there are multiple stacks interacting with each other?

[Royal Flush]

I can picture the shape of a two-dimensional graph of chip EV versus prize pool EV (although I wouldn't know how to calibrate the axes of the graph) but how do we deal with a multi-dimensional problem where there are multiple stacks interacting with each other?

We guess, its about as simple as that, you have about 20-30 seconds to make these decisions and you have to figure it out in that short time, i think those who play a lot of stt's learn when the right time and wrong times to call are. It takes experience though, and everytime you find yourself in a spot like this then it pays to wrok through the scenarios after.

[Wardonkey]

I'm not convinced. I'm still calling.

[Royal Flush]

I'm not convinced. I'm still calling.

You can only win 50% of the prize pool though....if this was a 1 seat sat then yes i would call aswell.