It's just Ace high but I love it

[cambridgealex]

50/1 DTD. Villain is a young chinese lad who knows the game, is a bit nitty, but with big leaks, plays fairly passive vs me and likes to hero call. He's playing £150, I cover.

  UTG I raise to £5, one call UTG+1 he' s UTG+2 and makes it £21, folds round. I raise to £52. He'll be 3betting 99+ and AK in this spot imo. Nothing I crush. I really expect him to fold or jam here so when he flats I expect him to be massive.
 
  check check
  check check
 

Line check on pre, and all 3 streets?

[pleno1]

if he only 3bets 99+/ak why are we 4betting?

[kinboshi]

If you expect him to fold or shove, you're effectively turning your hand into a bluff?

When he calls, you think/know he has you, so you check it down? 

What's the thinking behind the £52 raise?

[Cf]

The reasons for that raise seem kinda spewy. It almost soundss like you're "raising to see where you're at"...

[SuuPRlim]

you're raising to snap a shove off surely, abso fine

but please cbet this flop

[GreekStein]

you're raising to snap a shove off surely, abso fine

but please cbet this flop

For how much?

Villain has put in £52 leaving £98 back into a pot of £105.

[stato_1]

Id be pretty surprised if someone 3betting 99 isnt also 3betting AQ.

However if u do assign villain 99+/AK and say he folds 99-JJ to a 4bet and stacks off with the rest then ur folding out 18 combos in his 3bet range and getting stacks in vs 21.

46.15% of the time we win all the dead moneys = £32.50
53.85% of the time we get in vs AK/QQ+ where we have 41.90% vs that range. Pot £306 we win on average £128.22 from here, from the extra £145 we have to put in, so if we get it in result for us is -£16.78

0.4615*32.5 - 0.5385*16.78 = +£5.96 so with our assumptions 4betting is fine. We gain a lot of equity from the times he makes equity mistakes by folding pairs. Its pretty awkward to call this hand oop and its going to be pretty difficult to get any money in postflop when we are ahead (or to bluff him off any better hands). If it comes Axx or Kxx its going to scare the hands we now beat (QQ-99) unless he has a set in which case gg money. If it doesnt come Axx or Kxx were now certainly behind or chopping according to the range we assigned and he wont be folding pairs in 3bpots on these boards, and will prob end up bluffing us off it if its a chop.

That being said with your description he is probably 3 betting even tighter than this imo (esp UTG+2, vs UTG open), and if he is really nitty/passive id probably just fold to the 3bet.

Now hes flatted its gay but bet/call that flop probably.

[SuuPRlim]

Id be pretty surprised if someone 3betting 99 isnt also 3betting AQ.

However if u do assign villain 99+/AK and say he folds 99-JJ to a 4bet and stacks off with the rest then ur folding out 18 combos in his 3bet range and getting stacks in vs 21.

46.15% of the time we win all the dead moneys = £32.50
53.85% of the time we get in vs AK/QQ+ where we have 41.90% vs that range. Pot £306 we win on average £128.22 from here, from the extra £145 we have to put in, so if we get it in result for us is -£16.78

0.4615*32.5 - 0.5385*16.78 = +£5.96 so with our assumptions 4betting is fine. We gain a lot of equity from the times he makes equity mistakes by folding pairs. Its pretty awkward to call this hand oop and its going to be pretty difficult to get any money in postflop when we are ahead (or to bluff him off any better hands). If it comes Axx or Kxx its going to scare the hands we now beat (QQ-99) unless he has a set in which case gg money. If it doesnt come Axx or Kxx were now certainly behind or chopping according to the range we assigned and he wont be folding pairs in 3bpots on these boards, and will prob end up bluffing us off it if its a chop.

That being said with your description he is probably 3 betting even tighter than this imo (esp UTG+2, vs UTG open), and if he is really nitty/passive id probably just fold to the 3bet.

Now hes flatted its gay but bet/call that flop probably.

^^^ sooooooooooooper

anyone that even hints at 4bet folding is getting a slap :p

[SuuPRlim]

you're raising to snap a shove off surely, abso fine

but please cbet this flop

For how much?

Villain has put in £52 leaving £98 back into a pot of £105.

oh yeeahhhhhhh

i'd prolly bet £37 and call, or JAM, I just dont see much merit to seeing a turn card here

[paulhouk03]

depends who the chinese guy is

if its tom i am jamming it in his eye and then tell him have a shave

if its a normal chinese guy i am jamming it in his face

[ ] i am good at cash

[Longy]

4bet/fold face up.

Then say "Don't mess with me young un, mines a corona from back of the fridge"

Unless they are parsleys , then snap get it in.

[SuuPRlim]

4bet/fold face up.

Then say "Don't mess with me young un, mines a corona from back of the fridge"

Unless they are parsleys , then snap get it in.

finally some actual analysis ITT, I dont know wtf Stato was trying to say in his post

[skolsuper]

Id be pretty surprised if someone 3betting 99 isnt also 3betting AQ.

However if u do assign villain 99+/AK and say he folds 99-JJ to a 4bet and stacks off with the rest then ur folding out 18 combos in his 3bet range and getting stacks in vs 21.

46.15% of the time we win all the dead moneys = £32.50
53.85% of the time we get in vs AK/QQ+ where we have 41.90% vs that range. Pot £306 we win on average £128.22 from here, from the extra £145 we have to put in, so if we get it in result for us is -£16.78

0.4615*32.5 - 0.5385*16.78 = +£5.96 so with our assumptions 4betting is fine. We gain a lot of equity from the times he makes equity mistakes by folding pairs. Its pretty awkward to call this hand oop and its going to be pretty difficult to get any money in postflop when we are ahead (or to bluff him off any better hands). If it comes Axx or Kxx its going to scare the hands we now beat (QQ-99) unless he has a set in which case gg money. If it doesnt come Axx or Kxx were now certainly behind or chopping according to the range we assigned and he wont be folding pairs in 3bpots on these boards, and will prob end up bluffing us off it if its a chop.

That being said with your description he is probably 3 betting even tighter than this imo (esp UTG+2, vs UTG open), and if he is really nitty/passive id probably just fold to the 3bet.

Now hes flatted its gay but bet/call that flop probably.

^^^ sooooooooooooper

anyone that even hints at 4bet folding is getting a slap :p

That post is actually terrible in so many ways. Looks good tho.

Given your assumptions, flatting pre >> 4bet-calling, although I would say your assumptions seem unlikely to be true. That said, with these specific stacks, bet sizes and relative positions, I think a flat works pretty well a lot of the time so would still advocate that over 4betting.

As played pre, shove the flop or bet 1/3rd and call it off, whichever you think is more likely to get folds from better hands. In live poker I'd imagine it's the shove.

As played, check river and hope for a showdown and half the pot.

[TheFallen]

i fold pre,

4betting, our range is so face up and we are near the bottom of what he will perceive our range as being.

no money invested and a some consideration should be given to the fact that the pot isn't yet hu. I also think the 3betting range you assign him is too wide.


flatting maybe has merits in that it may entice the initial raiser to make really bad peels. 

[GreekStein]

Lol @ fold pre.

On the flop its a check swallow imo rather than bet/call or anything else.