Tourney Analysis

[ifm]

I call too but VERY reluctantly.
One thing i hate is being allin with more than one other in the pot, it reduces your odds dramatically (which is what 12BB's means).
I played a live comp the other day, my AK v AJ vA7 (first 2 allin my decision with 13 left, 9 paid), not going into bad beats but needless to say i chopped the side pot with the best hand!!
It happens but i'd still call if i was in the same situation tomorrow, a lot has been written about getting aggressive near the bubble and IMO the merits far outweigh the downsides.

[12barblues]

My calc of 33% chance of winning was based on UTG having a lower pair and Simon holding AA or KK or AK.

If Simon could be holding AQ as well, it increases to 38%.

7,500 into a total pot of 20,000 = 37.5%

Caveat: I'm pretty new to this kind of analysis and could well be horribly wrong. The beauty of this board is that there are some much better players than me who can tell me when I'm spouting nonsense and I can learn and improve. Great innit! I couldn't care less if I appear to be a self-opiniated fish.

A last calc: 12bar + alcohol = headache. I should know better.........

[tikay]

12Bar, I am missing something here, maybe I am barking up the wrong tree, but I'm still struggling with your %'s. QQ v underpair v AK, I get the QQ to be 45%. No?

Want some Nurafen?

[ifm]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1437828

[12barblues]

But you are in deep doodah if he has AA (6 ways) or KK (6 ways) as opposed to AK (16 ways) i.e. 12 out of 28 times.

[tikay]

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

[M3boy]

Great post Tikay.

A scenario all of have faced sometime or another, and will do again.

To me its a "gut feeling". Your "gut feeling" was spot on and that I feel makes it a correct call.

Now had the player in Simons position been a wild card, then I think that your "gut feeling" could not possibly be correct and a fold in my mind would of been my move.

"Gut feeling" great when its right, horrible when it is wrong.

A story of gut feeling :

earlier this year in the WPT event in Reno, i am in day 3 with 42 left and have around 14xBB left. Money started at 27.
I was UTG with AK o/s(no clubs) with 3 big stacks on my table. I needed to make this hand pay and not just pick up the blinds so decided to limp
in.

3 callers +SB. Flop came K 7 2 with 2 clubs. SB and BB both check. Now my thought here (rightly or wrongly) was to check and induce a bet from the 2 big stacks in the pot then move all in. But alas, it was checked all round the table.
Turn card bought a 3rd club. Again SB and BB both check, and I had a good read on the last player to act and had him on a small flush so couldnt bet.
Everyone checked again and the river bought a 4th club!! The look on the guy's face who was last to act confirmed to me that he had a small flush and didnt like the river.
Again SB and BB checked, I couldnt bring myself to push all in - even though my "gut feeling" was that he would pass and i checked.
The next guy to act had masses of chips and had been stealing (Arnold Spee was his name who went on to win it) looked around, looked at the pot, looked at my chips and made a bet equal to what I had left.
It was folded back round to me.
Now my "Gut feeling" was that he had no part of the flush at all and I was almost certainly ahead with my AK.
I was fighting with my mind, I knew I was ahead, but couldnt bring myself to stick it in. Not an easy decision (approx 4 minutes from memory)
Now had I gone with my gut feeling I would of trippled (nealy) my stack and would of been in great shape to advance in the tourney.
Arnold Spee showed me A 5 (no clubs) for a pair of 5's.
That "gut feeling" decision has bothered me ever since and probably always will.

Now that call - which I should of made was based solely on Gut Feeling. No way could I call in that situation without it.

[byronkincaid]

12Bar, I am missing something here, maybe I am barking up the wrong tree, but I'm still struggling with your %'s. QQ v underpair v AK, I get the QQ to be 45%. No?

Want some Nurafen?

You need to read the maths section of erick lindgren's book. we're talking about putting your opponents on a range of hands not guessing 2 specific hands whether you guessed correctly in this case or not. Are you saying that DC or Julian doesn't do these calcs or at least done them for a few common situations? I was thinking that I am a very bad/lazy player for not doing this yet. I'm glad in a way that I'm not the only one

[tikay]

Great Post M3Boy, it's that "Key Decision" of the whole tourney, & sometimes you just have to go with your gut feel. Bet you have regretted it every day since then!

[byronkincaid]

OK the book example. You have 88 and are reraised all in. You put your opponent on QQ+ or AK. Do you call? 6 combinations each for QQ KK AA. 16 ways for AK. 18/16 that you are a big dog.

equity against overpair is 19%, against AK 54%. 16 + 18 = 34.    18 x 19% + 16 x 54% divided by 34 = overall equity of 35% thereofre if getting 1.8/1 or better pot odds mathematically you should call.

[M3boy]

Great Post M3Boy, it's that "Key Decision" of the whole tourney, & sometimes you just have to go with your gut feel. Bet you have regretted it every day since then!

Oh have I!!  30odd xBB with 42 left would of been in good position - hopefully I will have the chance to play another WPT event soon.

[tikay]

12Bar, I am missing something here, maybe I am barking up the wrong tree, but I'm still struggling with your %'s. QQ v underpair v AK, I get the QQ to be 45%. No?

Want some Nurafen?

You need to read the maths section of erick lindgren's book. we're talking about putting your opponents on a range of hands not guessing 2 specific hands whether you guessed correctly in this case or not. Are you saying that DC or Julian doesn't do these calcs or at least done them for a few common situations? I was thinking that I am a very bad/lazy player for not doing this yet. I'm glad in a way that I'm not the only one

I am getting a headache here byron!

"Range of hands", yes.. I have, right or wrong, excluded AA & KK from my calculations, so when we do the "range of hands" scenario, I get him on only a few hands - AK, AQ, QQ, JJ. I really don't know how Dave or Julian calculate at this stage - in fact, I doubt if Julian "calculates" at all - but I certainly do, & did. But I must emphasise, I deduced very quickly - luckily, perhaps - that he could NOT have AA or KK. So my calculations had to exclude those hands. If I put him on either of those hands, calculations are not necessary, as I pass in a flash.

[tikay]

OK the book example. You have 88 and are reraised all in. You put your opponent on QQ+ or AK. Do you call? 6 combinations each for QQ KK AA. 16 ways for AK. 18/16 that you are a big dog.

equity against overpair is 19%, against AK 54%. 16 + 18 = 34.    18 x 19% + 16 x 54% divided by 34 = overall equity of 35% thereofre if getting 1.8/1 or better pot odds mathematically you should call.

Slowly, I think I am gettuing there byron, though it's all a bit complicated for me. So the calculation I should do, according to you, must include AA or KK? I cant see that at all I'm afraid. If I think for a moment he has KK or AA, I pass, but his play specifically suggests he did NOT. Simon Nowab is a VERY good player, & I just don't see him wanting to play either hand more than 2 way. But I appreciate your point, & need to think about it some more.

[doubleup]

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

Tikay - you obviously know your opponents play well, but I've seen AA/KK flat call a reasonably sized all-in so many times, I almost think that it's a standard play.  In fact the hand that clinched my qualification for WSOP, was all-in flat call, I went over the top with AK and luckily sucked out.

[byronkincaid]

No, this is all new to me as well but I'm playing around at pokerstove.com and my new years resolution is that I will know this stuff before 7th March. I have a headache myself now and I still have a tax return I was going to do today Download pokerstove and play around with ranges and if you understand it all please explain it to me