Tourney Analysis

[tikay]

Part hand anlysis, part Tourney analysis, but a bit of both really, because sometimes the two need to be seen together. This occurred yesterday, & set me thinking about tournament strategy.

It's the $500 Frezeout on Blue Square, 2k starting chips, 30 minute clock, lovely.

I enjoyed a good tourney, always at or sligtly above average stack, never all-in, & I felt in control of things. I had moved tables several times, but I found myself against lairy R-R merchants quite a lot - blondeites At It Penly, Jeff Buffenburger, and, playing really beautiful, strong poker from the word go, Simon Nowab. It's tough to find a spot against these guys, but with this sructure, patience was in order, & all went nicely. I found Premiums 3 or 4 tuimes, always on my Blinds, &, uncannily, these were about the only occasions when the lairy boys did not make a speculative Raise, but never mind, the chips were safely gathered without drama.

With 13 or 14 left, Simon Nowab & Stu Fox were runaway Chip Daddies, both playing terrific poker, & I'm about average with 7,500 - but blinds were only 150-300, so "average" does not mean TOO much at this point, imo.  But I'm starting to think how I'm gonna play the Final - serious money, $12k to the winner - so it was worth giving some thought to. I deduced that Nowab & Foxy would bully everyone to death, quite right too, & I was gonna need to either get lucky, or find a big, contested, hand soon, or I would have trouble coping with the deep stacks 6 or 7 handed.

And then THIS happened.

UTG, sat quite comfortable with 5k, moves ALL-IN! I look down & see  , an auto-pilot call in my BB. He can only have a medium pair at best, maybe some sort of straggley A, I suppose AK or AQ was a possibility, but I plumped for medium pair, & its clear he does not want a call, & it's clear he's gonna get one! A bad play by him in my view, he can find the answer to his question FAR cheaper than 5k, a bet of 1,500 or so would have told him where he stood, but anyway, that's his problem, I'm cool, there is no decision for me, I KNOW I'm ahead. (such as you can).

But suddenly, I'm awoken from my smug thoughts by Simon Nowab, deep-stacked with 16k, who just CALLS. Now THATS AK, for sure, maybe AQ worst, at least that's my read, right or wrong. So, I have 7k, QQ in my hands, I can pass for free, I've only got the BB invested, & safely resume my progress to the Final, with a so-so-stack, or partake in this coup on a do-or-die basis. Clearly, if I move on for 7.5k, Nowab will call in a flash. If I have read their hands correctly, I'm about an 11/10 shot to win this, say 45%, & the Pot Odds cover this handsomely. Though Pot Odds are a fat lot of good if I'm on the Rail.......

Make the Final average chips, & get pushed around by the bullies, or give myself a REAL chance to win the thing? The money in the Final starts at about $200, & does not get serious untl 4th or 5th, & I've already guaranteed myself $120 ish, as I recall.

A few months ago, I let this go - "stack preservation" rules!, but lately, I've turned the preservation dial down, & tried to build playable stacks. And it's done me good, my Final finishes have been much higher than previously.

Anyway, I decide to go for it, & on their backs, we find this is the situation.....

UTG Lunger Man - 

Simon Nowab

Me 

My read was good, & I'm 45% to win it, Nowab 36% & Lunger Man a surprisingly high 19%, which, oddly, is almost identical to his odds if it's me & him Heads-Up.

Anyway, the K falls, & that's that, goodbye Chips, & goodbye Tourney, but no problem there, I knew what I was likely to face, & made a conscious decision to take the chance - a favourites chance at that.

So the question here is between survival, or going for the win. There's NO right or wrong answer, it depends on so many things, but where DO you draw that line?

Thewy often speaks of "finding the path to the Final", a sort of analogy for dodgng bullets, whereas as many would say, "bugger getting there with an average stack, let's get serious".

What path do the blondeite Hand Analysis Squad prefer?

[The Baron]

1st place is worth 20 6th places financially.

Correct reads and correct play IMO.

[tikay]

Well, I've never looked at it THAT way! I need to think about that logic though.

[booder]

good post tony..........i am in the same camp as you , i would have made the same play.far better to reach the final table with a stack that allows you to play as opposed to having to push all in at the first half hand.  i went out in the very first hand of the 500$ flopping top two pair and losing to trips but i have no regrets.i could have been up against an overpair the way the betting went so i put my tournament on the line figuring that if my hand held up  a) i would have a good stack to accumulate more chips  and  b) it would show other players that that i would not be pushed off a hand.  with tournament payouts predominantly top heavy i feel the risk taken to win the tournament as opposed to just making the money iswell worth taking.

[tikay]

Well I'm a recent convert to that way of thinking, but it does come at the expense of more early exits, & I like to get my value when I enter a tiourney, (as well as giving others value, before Flushy pipes up).....

If I enter a decent tiourney, PART of the vaklue to me is the entertainment value of a long poker session, with some good table banter. Now that IS bad strategy, but it is what it is.

My first ever big tourney was a £1,500 Freeze at Walsall, and first hand I found  & got into a Raising war with Matey Boy pre-flop. The flop came, miraclously,  , Top Set, luverly. Then we got in another Raising war, &, embarrassingly, I passed Top Set after he set me all-in. I decided he had AK & passed! - I just could not bear to exit so early in my first big comp, & my mind thus convinved me he had AK, by way of justification for my awful pass. as it happened, he DID have AK, so I was "thin", but those days have long gone, thank goodness.

[The Baron]

Would your thinking differ on a final table of a WSOP or WPT?

A decision Carlo Citrone had this year (on a WSOP final) confused the hell out of me but I cant really remember it.

[Royal Flush]

Tony, i think you are right, you are murdering the UTG all in, however i am shit scared of Simon.

He has a style and he understands how to play his style, it does not include calling off large portions of his stack pre flop without the goods, if he had re-raised all in i would be more inclined to call, when he flat calls i am more expecting to see AA/KK.

[tikay]

In theory, I'd play the more speculative option now - but that's in THEORY! Whether I'd have the balls to think like that in a REAL biggie is another matter.......

I do find that I'm MUCH braver in little Tourneys!

Though, to be fair, in my first WSOP Event earlier this year, I found to my horror, we only got 1,500 Chips (it was a $1,500 jobbie) & I just decided there & then to gamble, & it worked a treat, but did my bum-cheeks no good at all......

[Royal Flush]

I think i still call though, as i put the UTG on AK/AQ and fancy the dead money, there is still a goo chance simon is AK/JJ so i could be against 2 x AK, or at least 2 x Ax

[bundle]

It’s all so easy to say after the event, but I think I would have folded here. Yes you will get yourself a large stack to go on and play at the final table, but I don’t like the flat call. That has to set alarm bells off in your head.

 I am about preservation at this stage and since I will get to see the flop, and what they are both holding, I would have stepped aside. I can kick myself later, But would still be in the tournament.

 Flushy has a very aggressive style, I have seen him on the final table and he is a force to be reckoned with, However since I have tried to emulate this style of play, I have had rather less success at making finals. It all has to do with your own personal style. People might think this is weak of me, but I have picked up large hands and pots while sitting at the final table short stacked, the big guys like to try knock you out here and inevitably can double and triple you up, giving you a real chance, Just look at IMMRCHIPS, sorry to rub than in tikay, but the guy had nothing at one point. Preservation is the name of the game for me.JMHO

Bundle   

[tikay]

Nice Post bundle.

Your paragraph 2 sums up my dilemma precisely. I hear what you say, but I'm not 100% certain it's right for me.  Hence my Post.

[12barblues]

I suffer from final table short stack syndrome too, so this is a really valuable exercise to work through from my perspective.

My gut feel was to fold. The flat call scares me to death. However, I'm going to work through some hand ranges for both opponents to try to get a better feel as this must be a pretty marginal situation.

However, it will have to wait as Jools Holland is just starting and there is a bottle of wine with my name on it 

Happy New Year to all Blondies and specially the HAS-beens (Hand Analysis Squad) with whom it is a privilege to discuss some really tricky situations

 

[Karabiner]

Personally I feel that you have to go with your read in these situations.

If you had suspected that you were up against AA or KK then it's a bad call IMO

If their  cards had been face up what would you have done ?

[bundle]

I now know the guy had AK, but would not have put him on that, would you not move in here to shut out the rest and get it HU. I was wrong, but i would have put him on AA here, even that hand should still move in. anyway my point being the Flat call scares the hell out of me here

[wsopin07]

I think the best style is a mix of the best players you know!

Examples:

1)  , tight and right most of the time, maybe to conservative
2) DC / plays "stealth poker" , all of a sudden he has chips but you cant remember how he got them
3) Rookie / aggresive, some what crazy, always gets paid, cant put him on a hand
4) Mr Cool / plays as his name suggests, usually has the goods, picks out the right "marks" at the table to do battle against
5) John Gale / very aggressive, very smart, will gamble!
6) Surrinder / ultra conservative, very scarey
7) Tony G / Tough to play against, may do anything, need to play tight against him, you cant like him at your table, dont lie!
Dan / just wait for any   to knock him out of a comp

I think you need all differnet ways to play, this is what I am and have been working on for the last 30 days.

I have been playing small MTT at different sites, actually writing things down on paper as I play, things like DC stealth,   tight, Surrinder super tight. Sounds crazy but I think it is a good way to condition ones self to be a better player. Learn from the people around you.

The biggest leak in my game is still patience, sorry DC still working on it