Tourney Analysis

[Royal Flush]

Another avenue is the stop and go, say you flat call the bet then move on the flop, if the flop is low then simon would have to pass his AK

[wsopin07]

Another avenue is the stop and go, say you flat call the bet then move on the flop, if the flop is low then simon would have to pass his AK

but then you do not get max value from the hand, now your QQ has shown you a small profit?

[Royal Flush]

Well the pot is already 15k at this point, so simon isnt folding on the flop anyway, but if say tikay had 12k and made this move, then he bets 7k on the flop simon passes and he doubles up, ok he loses out on the extra 7k if he moves in pre flop, but it saves him his stack all those times the A/K comes on the turn or the river.

[wsopin07]

Well the pot is already 15k at this point, so simon isnt folding on the flop anyway, but if say tikay had 12k and made this move, then he bets 7k on the flop simon passes and he doubles up, ok he loses out on the extra 7k if he moves in pre flop, but it saves him his stack all those times the A/K comes on the turn or the river.

your right

[dan]

i would personally call but when you look at the odds you are not even 50%. i would want to get to the final with a big stack though. good call but unlucky

[tikay]

Simon's flat call did not trouble me unduly, it was my instinct that if he had AA or KK, he would Raise, as there were 4 players behind him, still to act. Nobody wants AA or KK 3 handed in a pot that big.

But that was not really the point of my Post, which was, get involved, & be either huge, or out, or plod on to the Final with a medium stack, knowing I'd face two deep-stacked & very aggressive players? Hang in there, or go for it? That's really the question.

I still think it was right to go for it, but it will be interesting to see what kind of analysis 12Barblues comes up with when he's sobered up, he's pretty cute with these.

[tikay]

i would personally call but when you look at the odds you are not even 50%. i would want to get to the final with a big stack though. good call but unlucky

Correct, not 50%, but I AM favourite. Now theres a conundrum! Many good judges, & I particularly recall Paul Phillips advice on this scenario, is that at the sharp end of a tourney, ANY edge, no matter how small, MUST be taken. I had the edge. But PP may be wrong.

[dan]

i would personally call but when you look at the odds you are not even 50%. i would want to get to the final with a big stack though. good call but unlucky

Correct, not 50%, but I AM favourite. Now theres a conundrum! Many good judges, & I particularly recall Paul Phillips advice on this scenario, is that at the sharp end of a tourney, ANY edge, no matter how small, MUST be taken. I had the edge. But PP may be wrong.

you are favourite against these players individualy but not favourite overall if you know what i mean???

[wsopin07]

I just think you can play this hand different all the time. It is a "gut" feeling when you play it hard, its a gut feeling when you dont play it! If you look at the payouts at comps it makes sense to go for the WIN in my opinion!!!

In the 888.com semi I had to make one of these plays vs Gary Jones! He reraised me 3 handed w/   and I called w/  Ah !
It was a call that put out one of the best players in the semi and alos put me into a big chip lead going into the 6 handed final! Could have hurt real bad though

Has the 888.com final been on yet. I played one of the worst hands of my life when I was reraised by the 2nd biggest stack, I called w/ and he had   Ah, very very very bad call, at best I was 50/50, needed a better spot.  

[12barblues]

I'm not sobering up....I have every intention of getting much worse....but my initial analysis, based on TK's reads, shows that he is around 33% to win this. And he needs 38%. Fold.

Hic!!!

P.S. If AQ is a possibility for Simon, then it's bang on 38%.

P.P.S. If UTG has anything other than a smaller pair, this post should be treated with the contempt it deserves    It gets much more complicated if the opponents hands interfere with each other, i.e. AK/AK

P.P.P.S. I am in no state to be even considering posting on a public forum.............

[Royal Flush]

But that was not really the point of my Post, which was, get involved, & be either huge, or out, or plod on to the Final with a medium stack, knowing I'd face two deep-stacked & very aggressive players? Hang in there, or go for it? That's really the question.

Well, this is where it getts ricky, there is nothing wrong with making that final with a mid stack, the structure was great. However if you take simon on, you take out the best player on your table (excluding yourself of course) which with your new stack would enable you to run your table.The question is would you use the edge you get from taking out simon (ok i know he had some chips back) or would you just sit back?

[Tractor]

I changed my tourny strategy like you Tikay half way through the year.
I was making a good deal of final tables but never really getting in the top 3.
Since then I have left tournies very early, which I wasnt used to but I have managed three top 3 finishes in the 100k on Prima since then so I feel it definatly is the way forward.
Unfortunatlly ive been 3rd everytime getting roughly $8k each time although when the chips went in I was always leading so I cant ask for much more.
So to sum up -
In my "short" trial I have earnt more winnings than the 12 month period before BUT it still hurts going out early when trying to accumalte a large stack early.
I mainly play cash and proably only play 30 tournies a year so this doesnt reflect a lot in hindsight.

Happy New Year !

[tikay]

I'm not sobering up....I have every intention of getting much worse....but my initial analysis, based on TK's reads, shows that he is around 33% to win this. And he needs 38%. Fold.

Hic!!!

P.S. If AQ is a possibility for Simon, then it's bang on 38%.

P.P.S. If UTG has anything other than a smaller pair, this post should be treated with the contempt it deserves    It gets much more complicated if the opponents hands interfere with each other, i.e. AK/AK

P.P.P.S. I am in no state to be even considering posting on a public forum.............

Sober yet?

UTG -  = 18%

Simon  As = 36%

tikay =  = 46%

Flushy's lastest Post? Good question. I would probably have sat back if I had won that hand, &, barring exceptional cards or situations, started playing again when we were 4 or 5 handed. Unless I had become massive, in which case, I'd have some fun & been bullying straight away.

Tractor's Post suggests he is going through the same process of change that I am. Here's whY I felt change was needed, these are my Fessie Cashes in 2004, my firsr year on the proper circuit.

2nd, 8th, 4th, 8th, 2nd, 9th, 5th, 6th, 3rd, 8th, 8th, 4th.

And 2005...

18th, 12th, 17th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 11th, 18th, 9th, (after which I decided to be MUCH more aggressive), 2nd, 12th, 1st.

So I clearly needed to do SOMETHING.

I'm still convinced that I did the right thing - **** or bust!

[byronkincaid]

tikay aren't you and barblues talking about different percentages here? Are your %s what you would get from 2dimes or any other hand calculator whereas barblues talking about %equity against a range of possible hands?

[tikay]

tikay aren't you and barblues talking about different percentages here? Are your %s what you would get from 2dimes or any other hand calculator whereas barblues talking about %equity against a range of possible hands?

That is probably correct byron, it's rare that 12Bar gets his numbers wrong, & I misunderstood his reply I think.

But in making my assessment, I had to put the 2 opponents "on hands" - what else can you do? - & as luck would have it, I got both hands correct. So I made a decision baesed on the basis that I believed I was favourite.