Tourney Analysis

[tikay]

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

Tikay - you obviously know your opponents play well, but I've seen AA/KK flat call a reasonably sized all-in so many times, I almost think that it's a standard play.  In fact the hand that clinched my qualification for WSOP, was all-in flat call, I went over the top with AK and luckily sucked out.

Well Simon Nowab is as tricky as they come, and I do know his game very well, but this goes back to M3Boy's "gut feel", & I just was absoutely sure he never had AA or KK. But this is missing my point, which was "Go for it, or duck it"?.

byron - don't remind me, "Tax Return". I'm retired, & the Inland Revenue are STILL giving me hell......

[doubleup]

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

Tikay - you obviously know your opponents play well, but I've seen AA/KK flat call a reasonably sized all-in so many times, I almost think that it's a standard play.  In fact the hand that clinched my qualification for WSOP, was all-in flat call, I went over the top with AK and luckily sucked out.

Well Simon Nowab is as tricky as they come, and I do know his game very well, but this goes back to M3Boy's "gut feel", & I just was absoutely sure he never had AA or KK. But this is missing my point, which was "Go for it, or duck it"?.

byron - don't remind me, "Tax Return". I'm retired, & the Inland Revenue are STILL giving me hell......

If I didn't know the player well enough to exclude AA/KK I would fold.

[byronkincaid]

OK think I've worked out how to do it. Pokerstove results

                equity (%)      win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   52.2800 %     54.24%    00.28%      { QcQd }
Hand  2:   19.2727 %     17.08%    03.02%      { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand  3:   28.4473 %     26.58%    03.09%      { AQs+, AQo+ }

[byronkincaid]

and if simon could have had AA or KK


equity (%)     win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   40.5542 %     40.35%    00.24%      { QcQd }
Hand  2:   18.3943 %     16.35%    02.06%      { JJ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand  3:   41.0516 %     39.01%    02.08%      { KK+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[12barblues]

...agree. But as I noted earlier, I do not seeing him flat-calling with AA or KK as there are 4 players behind him. So my read was AK, maybe AQ.
Though the real point was, meet the challenge & either be be chip leader or out, or duck the challenge, & plod on, and get pushed around in th Final by the deep-stacks?

If your read is as strong as this, you have to trust your judgement......shovel those chips in.

And thank you Byron for unearthing a resource I was not aware of (Pokerstove). I was messing around with twodimes and then manually calculating the results for various hand ranges.

[tikay]

It calculates winning $'s only, not equity, but I use this......

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem/index.php?stats=Tzo4OiJzdGRDbGFzcyI6OTp7czoxMToibnVtX3BsYXllcnMiO2k6MztzOjM6ImNsaSI7czoxODoiVEggVEMgQUMgS0ggUUQgUVMgIjtzOjE0OiJwbGF5ZXJfMV9jYXJkcyI7czo1OiJUQyBUSCI7czozOiJwY3QiO2E6Mzp7aToxO3M6NToiMTcuNiUiO2k6MjtzOjU6IjM2LjAlIjtpOjM7czo1OiI0Ni41JSI7fXM6MzoidGllIjthOjM6e2k6MTtzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO2k6MjtzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO2k6MztzOjQ6IjAuMzEiO31zOjE0OiJwbGF5ZXJfMl9jYXJkcyI7czo1OiJBQyBLSCI7czoxNDoicGxheWVyXzNfY2FyZHMiO3M6NToiUVMgUUQiO3M6OToibnVtYm9hcmRzIjtzOjc6IjEzNzA3NTQiO3M6MTU6InByb2Nlc3NpbmdfdGltZSI7czo1OiIwLjMwOCI7fQ==

Blimey - that's a long address - maybe I should not have entered the hands......

[Tractor]

All the math in the world isnt going to help at the point in the tournament when you have to make the decision...
Like m3 said it is that gutt feeling, that cant be equated for in maths, or can it, someone will now produce a formula know doubt.

Do you guys use these programs in real time? or just afterwards? Curious really as I know the odds but not exactly as you work it out.
Do these programs intergrate with the poker client to calculate your % etc in real time?


Ps- is this board just for hand analysis or actual poker related stuff too?
Or do we still post poker things in General, I would like to see this in main board please mods, as this is why most of us are here in the first place.
Although obviously we all enjoy the general banter aswell.


 

[tikay]

No, I would never use those sites in real time - I assume you refer to Online play. Like most peeps, I have a rough idea of the pertinent %'s, but when I get home from the tourney, I often check them out, for the sake of curiousty.

This Board is intended for Hand Analysis, & it's a "Child Board" right now, for reasons we have expained previously. It may move to become a Main Board in due course, it depends on how popular it proves. The Betting Tips Child Board has also proven a success, but we wil probably always leave that as a Child Board, whereas the call is more tricky on the Hand Analysis Board. We are delighted at how popular it seems to be proving.

It's really proving troublesome to get these things right, I'm afraid it's a case of not being able to please everyone. The sheer weight of Posts brings it's own problems, as stuff can disappear very quickly. Added to that is the maxim "we MUST keep trying to improve the place", & it becomes a tricky equation. We review the Boards on a regular basis, & will continue to do so.

[Royal Flush]

Tikay i am not sure your read on Simon is right at all.

Perhaps we can get Simon to read the thread and offer his views.

If i were sat that were with AA/KK i would flat call, i dont mind taking AA/KK 3 way for a big pot when as you already said the payouts are big at the top and small at the bottom!

I am fairly certain simon plays AA/KK with a flat call, he may have even flat called with AK to make it look like a big pair.

[bundle]

This is the kicking myself i was talking about...However i did read it right pre-flop. so i can except the loss.

Full Tilt Poker Game #363909611: $10,500 Guarantee (2291027), Table 7 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:34:19 ET - 2006/01/01
brianbreslin: wow
Seat 1: JAZZYJESS (10,142)
Seat 2: REDTITAN (6,070)
Seat 3: brianbreslin (700)
Seat 5: LadySkill (2,830)
Seat 6: Leanne26 (10,133)
Seat 7: wjdjr (3,620)
Seat 8: flyboys3 (7,165)
Seat 9: bundle (14,385)
LadySkill posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bundle [ ]
bundle: not right
Leanne26 folds
wjdjr folds
Leanne26 is feeling happy
flyboys3 calls 200
bundle raises to 800
JAZZYJESS folds
REDTITAN folds
brianbreslin folds
LadySkill calls 600
flyboys3 raises to 7,165, and is all in
wjdjr: phill ivey /freddy deeb
bundle folds
LadySkill calls 2,030, and is all in
flyboys3 shows [As Ah]
LadySkill shows [ ]
Uncalled bet of 4,335 returned to flyboys3
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
bundle: passed qq
flyboys3 shows a pair of Aces
LadySkill shows a pair of Jacks
flyboys3 wins the pot (6,460) with a pair of Aces
LadySkill stands up
K-Dog007 sits down
K-Dog007 adds 5,175
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,460 | Rake 0
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: JAZZYJESS didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: REDTITAN didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: brianbreslin (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: LadySkill (big blind) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 6: Leanne26 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: wjdjr didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: flyboys3 showed [As Ah] and won (6,460) with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: bundle folded before the Flop

would have won yes. but could also be on the rail...

[Royal Flush]

You couldnt be on the rail....you had him outchipped 2-1.

I persoanlly think thats a poor pass.

[bundle]

yes you are right..I just thought i was behind, and like ive said i am not too good at coin flips. It was a bad pass. i bottled it getting half my stack in

[Highstack]

I am not passing QQ here and you have to be prepared to die sometimes in these events. However I wouldn't have pushed the extra 2.5k in, despite your read on the situation. SN would always call you and would probably put you in if he hit the flop with AK anyway, but there is always a chance that your flat call behind him may assist his urge to bet and rather check down the all in opponent. This depleats your stack somewhat, but you may limper higher up the money order or find another opportunity to get some chips later with your small balance.

[tikay]

Well that's an interesting one - if the worst happens, & I let it go after flat calling, I am still in the comp. Good Post.

But....as you rightly say, sometimes you have to be prepared to die.

And this takes us back to the starting point - is it better to make that big play, death or glory, & Final in good shape, or limp into the money & hope to get lucky? I'v done too much of the latter, so I've converted. GREAT fun, but not doing my ticker much good!

[portfolio]

excellent thread.
had been at snowabs table till i got  qq outdrawn     the deck was hitting him   and he obv playing confidently.
that said, a quick  snap decision is reqd  and u took the brave,but  unlucky , option.

next time, the best hand might stand up?