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Author Topic: Fantasy Premier League 2011/12  (Read 63477 times)
TheDazzler
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« Reply #525 on: January 12, 2012, 07:57:08 PM »

The Dazzler making his move.

Yeah well I do tend to come strong in the 2nd half as I spend a lot of the 1st half of the season building up team value.
I now have a team value of ~£110m which is decent and hopefully should lead to a surge.
I think £1m is worth ~20 points from the start of the season so ~10 points from now till the end. So if someones team value is £105m, I think I have +50 points EV against them till the end of the season. It's a little more complicated than that but that's a general idea. I could go into it a bit more if anyones interested.
Having said all that, I don't think I've been at as a low a ranking as this at this stage ever before (bar 2006/07 and there was a reason for that) and a 106 point lead is a lot so I'll need a lot of luck and probably a lot of help from the leader too!

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Horneris
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« Reply #526 on: January 12, 2012, 10:44:42 PM »

The Dazzler making his move.

Yeah well I do tend to come strong in the 2nd half as I spend a lot of the 1st half of the season building up team value.
I now have a team value of ~£110m which is decent and hopefully should lead to a surge.
I think £1m is worth ~20 points from the start of the season so ~10 points from now till the end. So if someones team value is £105m, I think I have +50 points EV against them till the end of the season. It's a little more complicated than that but that's a general idea. I could go into it a bit more if anyones interested.
Having said all that, I don't think I've been at as a low a ranking as this at this stage ever before (bar 2006/07 and there was a reason for that) and a 106 point lead is a lot so I'll need a lot of luck and probably a lot of help from the leader too!



Very interesting, I must admit I hadn't though of the building finances situation at all, I do ratings of the match ups and stuff, made a mistake not thinking about it, will do next season.

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ACE2M
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« Reply #527 on: January 12, 2012, 11:38:23 PM »

it was my plan this year to and if i hadn't missed the rvp train it would have paid off. got 108.5 to play with, late season surge ftw.
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stribling
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« Reply #528 on: January 14, 2012, 08:42:11 AM »

The Dazzler making his move.

Yeah well I do tend to come strong in the 2nd half as I spend a lot of the 1st half of the season building up team value.
I now have a team value of ~£110m which is decent and hopefully should lead to a surge.
I think £1m is worth ~20 points from the start of the season so ~10 points from now till the end. So if someones team value is £105m, I think I have +50 points EV against them till the end of the season. It's a little more complicated than that but that's a general idea. I could go into it a bit more if anyones interested.
Having said all that, I don't think I've been at as a low a ranking as this at this stage ever before (bar 2006/07 and there was a reason for that) and a 106 point lead is a lot so I'll need a lot of luck and probably a lot of help from the leader too!



Yes please!
 
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You have to Risk it for the biscuit!!!
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« Reply #529 on: January 15, 2012, 09:28:18 PM »

They dont award points for money banked.....
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ACE2M
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« Reply #530 on: January 16, 2012, 10:06:56 AM »

Dazzler - Do you want a match bet on our H2H that comes after this week? anything up to £50.

A fool and his money.....

Yeah ok, say $25? I would go $50 but I see you've played your wildcard this week. I might play mine but I'm hoping I can hold off.

$25 booked. gl gl.

Its got ugly with the bonus points, need a big night from Aguero and a shit night for Silva.
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Teacake
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« Reply #531 on: January 16, 2012, 05:43:09 PM »

Dazzler - Do you want a match bet on our H2H that comes after this week? anything up to £50.

A fool and his money.....

Yeah ok, say $25? I would go $50 but I see you've played your wildcard this week. I might play mine but I'm hoping I can hold off.

$25 booked. gl gl.

Its got ugly with the bonus points, need a big night from Aguero and a shit night for Silva.

Tell me about it, my motley crew couldn't muster a single bonus point between them!
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #532 on: January 16, 2012, 07:04:41 PM »

Dazzler - Do you want a match bet on our H2H that comes after this week? anything up to £50.

A fool and his money.....

Yeah ok, say $25? I would go $50 but I see you've played your wildcard this week. I might play mine but I'm hoping I can hold off.

$25 booked. gl gl.

Its got ugly with the bonus points, need a big night from Aguero and a shit night for Silva.

Down to the wire!

On regards the money = points issue, the theory is simple enough Moneyball stuff.
At the start we have £100m and we are aim to hit a generally average score of something over 2000 points. So every £1m garners ~20 points.
There is a heading in the drop down list when you go into transfers titled 'Value (season)'. This equates to how many points the player has per £1m in cost. Vorm currently tops this with 19 points/£1m. This is actually based on his value for money at his current price of £5.2m. If you got him at £4m, he is actually at 25 points/£1m and may end the season at something like 40 points/£1m which would equate to a very good VFM (value for money) buy.
When buying players at the start of next season, that Value drop down box will give you the points of this season divided by their current new season value. This is a very, very powerful tool. Use it.
Somewhat on a tangent but related is the theory of 'not having too many players'. Lots of people will have teams that have too many good players. By this I mean that they have maybe 5 good defenders, 5 good midfielders and 3 good strikers. But you can only play 11 players and they often are leaving too much money on the bench.
You should in general be looking to having (at least) 1 base price GK (£4m), 2 base price defenders (£4m) and one base price midfielder (£4.5m) which allows you to put as much money as you can on the pitch.
Say Player A has 2 x 6m Gks, 3 x £6m Dfs, 2 x £5m Dfs, 3 x £8m Mids, 2 x £6m Mids, 1 x £12m Stk + 2 x £6m Stk. The most amount of money they can get on the pitch is £6m + £18m + £30m + £26m = £78m on the pitch.
Player B has 2 x 4.0m Gks, 3 x £6m x 3 Dfs, 2 x £4.0m Dfs, 4x £9m Mids, 1 x £4.5m Mid, 1 x £12m Stk + 1 x £7m + 1 x £6.5m. They get £83.5m on the pitch.

Like poker a lot of this is 'it depends' and there are exceptions to everything. For example, as regards my team value being ~£110m, it's slightly misleading. Due to the games policy of 'agents fees' taking half the profit gained when selling my actual team value, when I sell all my players my selling team value is only £105.3m. 

A good mathematical approach is required but after that good football judgement is required as to form/fixtures etc and of course as Napolean said, "I'd rather have a lucky general than a good one".
 
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c4ught
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« Reply #533 on: January 17, 2012, 09:50:07 AM »

Currently on a monster slide down the standings  used my January wildcard and managed to end up with 4 of my outfield players not playing 
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ACE2M
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« Reply #534 on: January 17, 2012, 12:16:40 PM »

well done Dazzler, send me your dank details for transfer.

cheers
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« Reply #535 on: January 22, 2012, 08:19:04 PM »

worst season i've ever had... outside top 6 is a disgrace.

going on a shit or bust strategy now.... weird captains and strange transfers that no-one else has
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millidonk
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« Reply #536 on: January 23, 2012, 10:03:05 AM »

Not logged in since the day I shipped the monies. Can someone tell me how my team is doing?
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ACE2M
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« Reply #537 on: January 23, 2012, 10:14:58 AM »

Not logged in since the day I shipped the monies. Can someone tell me how my team is doing?

shit
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millidonk
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« Reply #538 on: January 23, 2012, 10:28:02 AM »

Not logged in since the day I shipped the monies. Can someone tell me how my team is doing?

shit

Better than I expected. thanks.
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Graham C
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« Reply #539 on: January 27, 2012, 03:46:23 PM »

Remind me not to do this next year, i fail so bad at FF
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