QQ deep in warm up

[mondatoo]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

Yeah I know.

They're both making committing raises in to the big stack with others left to act as well. This is a decent indicator of strength.

I admit there's a strong chance that QQ is ahead.

I'm still not certain enough to go with it though.

Sorry if I've missed this itt but what range are you putting the 4b on here to fold QQ ?

[EvilPie]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

Yeah I know.

They're both making committing raises in to the big stack with others left to act as well. This is a decent indicator of strength.

I admit there's a strong chance that QQ is ahead.

I'm still not certain enough to go with it though.

Sorry if I've missed this itt but what range are you putting the 4b on here to fold QQ ?

Something pretty decent. JJ+, AK. Possibly add tens or nines and even AQ.

The point is I'm not certain enough of the range so how can I assign it with enough confidence?

Add the fact that there's a 3 bettor who must have something half decent + initial raiser who admittedly has a wide range but could wake up with a monster and smash us.

There's an EP raise from a good player who must know that there are a few reshove stacks knocking about.

Someone's shoved from MP who knows he's being called most of the time.

Guy in the cut off who we have 22 hands on doesn't give a shit about any of this.

I just don't like shoving such a big stack in with so much risk attached.

[MC]

I think something that no-one seems to have mentioned that this 4-bet is a min-4bet. Min 4-bets from donks are quite often Aces or Kings.

If he jams I'm never folding.

Having said that you can't rule out the other hands that should be in his range just because he min-4bet.

I'll hold off on posting results for a little longer.

[Nico29]

I think something that no-one seems to have mentioned that this 4-bet is a min-4bet. Min 4-bets from donks are quite often Aces or Kings.

If he jams I'm never folding.

Having said that you can't rule out the other hands that should be in his range just because he min-4bet.

I'll hold off on posting results for a little longer.

Good point, altho i do think ppl give too much credit 2 the min click iso-tho i agree a fish will often only do this with snizzle hands which is worrying of crse.

[T_Mar]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

[SuuPRlim]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

the 4bettor has the tighter range, so the 3bettor's overlay is pretty crucial here.

[T_Mar]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

the 4bettor has the tighter range, so the 3bettor's overlay is pretty crucial here.

yep agree I just wasn't sure it was correct to say we only had 25% when we get it in?!

[SuuPRlim]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

the 4bettor has the tighter range, so the 3bettor's overlay is pretty crucial here.

yep agree I just wasn't sure it was correct to say we only had 25% when we get it in?!

three handed remember - these aren't necessarily the range I would give these are the ranges suggested earlier in the thread, but Im not suprised QQ isnt in terrific shape here

[Nico29]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

I'm not 100% on this, so apologies in advance if I'm talking sh1te.. but is correct to say we only have 25% iin this spot, given that 3bettor only has 10bigs? even when he wins the main pot, we still in good shape to win a 60bb side pot from the 4bettor.  I'd be much more inclined to concentrate on the 4bettors range which we do well enough against to get QQ in pretty comfortably?

the 4bettor has the tighter range, so the 3bettor's overlay is pretty crucial here.

yep agree I just wasn't sure it was correct to say we only had 25% when we get it in?!

three handed remember - these aren't necessarily the range I would give these are the ranges suggested earlier in the thread, but Im not suprised QQ isnt in terrific shape here

Umm i have 2 be with tmar here upon reflection.

You have stoved the following 3 ranges right??

Us QQ,

3bettor 66+a8s,j10s,k10o,a10+,

4bettor 99,aqs+

Just thought there is no way we are only 25% against the other 2's range.

And stove has confirmed this.

In fact we are a big fav here.

Stove says:

qq=44.2%

66/a8s+=20.186%

99/aqs+=35.574%

Won't let me c+p for some really annoying reason!!

But it's easily stoved for yrslf.

How did you get these results SuuPRlim? Im assuming it's not a simple preflop stove calculation that i'm using?

[outragous76]

Nico

Use Ctrl "c" to copy from stove

oh and [  ] big fav

[strak33]

AQ in the cold 4 range? Come on lets not just try and make ourselves look a bigger fav

[MC]

AQ in the cold 4 range? Come on lets not just try and make ourselves look a bigger fav

Why would we be folding AQ in his spot?

[T_Mar]

AQ in the cold 4 range? Come on lets not just try and make ourselves look a bigger fav

Why cant AQ be in there? Seems reasonable to me

[Nico29]

Nico

Use Ctrl "c" to copy from stove

oh and [  ] big fav

Cheers and yeah i'd say 9% is a big fav lol, jees how much do you want, meh nits.

But ty 4 stove help, here r results from stove in that example.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  63,328,834,800  games   193.488 secs   327,301,097  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    44.240%     43.29%    00.95%       27415971504    600716330.00   { QQ }
Hand 1:    35.574%     34.36%    01.21%       21759641196    769061906.00   { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2:    20.186%     19.40%    00.79%       12285196620    498247244.00   { 66+, A8s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

AQ in the cold 4 range? Come on lets not just try and make ourselves look a bigger fav

aqstd and tbh i wldnt rule out odd kq spazz either but weve left that out

[outragous76]

I think when looking at those ranges teh min click is really important. 99 and AQ look suspect to a min click

Nico - take AA out of his range just for interest and see how it looks (ie would be flat AA)