DTD300 River decision vs lag

[Pinchop73]

This hand was played last night in the 300 deepstack at DTD.

Villain plays a pretty laggy game of poker. Has won a few pots, but has also bet out on many rivers that have bricked and he's been called and shown better. Ie K high, 3rd pair etc
All pots have been decent size by the river too as he has cbet the flop with large frequency.

Ok so the hand, the exact details may be slightly incorrect, but all relevant details are right.

Level 75/150

Folds to Villain, opens to 400 from highjack, playing 11k.

Hero calls from cutoff with , playing 13k.

Btn, sb and bb fold.

Flop      (1025)

Villain checks. Hero checks.

Turn  (1025)

Villain bets 575. Hero raises to 1700. Villain calls.

River  (4425)

Villain bets 2200.

Hero

[KarmaDope]

Probably sigh, look at my cards again then the board, vomit into my hands and then do a call.

[SuuPRlim]

just before the river.

nearly ALWAYS bet this flop. He is chk folding very very rarely imo, described villain sounds like he would cbet his total air almost 100%, so we can assume a lot of the time when he chks he is chking to chk/call. The only possible reason to chk would be because the board is Q high, and people do actually tend to not cbet Qhigh boards quite as wide because they tend to hit PF calling ranges prettttty hard. But still, BET THE FLOP, missing a TON of value by chking.


Turn is wierd, think he'll raise QQ/Q8/88 as well as JT plus any  / Xs combo's  and he could easily be moving around given rep but unlikely to be completely light imo.

River I'd be realllllly tempted to turn my hand into a bluff cos you should have WAYYYYYY more Jx's than him but I think this is JOKE SPEWY in the DTD £300 hahahahaha wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

his value range crushes you and most of the hands that semi-bluff the turn now either have a straight or some decent showdown value + pretty sure he's not going to be bluffing with 89 and I reckon he might not bluff with   either, so i'd fold most likely.

[Nit Tendencies]

Bet flop, it's a huge mistake to check. Fold river as played, he's going to have it most of the time here when he's donking into you after you've raised the turn. People tend not to have air when they take the turn initiative away on the river on this kind of board texture. To call or raise you'd have to give him credit for being able to turn a made turn hand into a bluff which is a pretty big assumption in a £300.

Just sigh fold.

[SuuPRlim]

and run better with the board run outs as well, fyl

[Nit Tendencies]

and run better with the board run outs as well, fyl

Yeah this.

[Pinchop73]

Yeah, I need to take a look at my own psychology. When I'm not running terribly well like I am at the mo. Agreed really silly not to bet the flop.

After he called my raise ott, I had flushes as a strong part of his range. Also have raggy Q's in his range. With a flush draw out there I couldn't see him flatting with JT or two pair or a set, but could easily be flatting with 67 combos. Can't be calling a gutshot, so I don't want to see spades, 5's, T's.

When he bet the river I was like WTF. He'd value bet JT here, a set, maybe 2 pair. But I can't see these hands in his range after his turn line. Would he flat TT's and has now hit his set?

So, a thin value bet with a Q, surely can't have called the turn on a gutshot, or he has air.

I spent a lot of time thinking during this hand. I figured I needed 34%ish equity to make a call. Then I considered how many busted draws he'd bet on the river. My call depends on how much risk he's taken on the turn, either by letting something better get there beating his set/straight, or he really has called the turn with a Jx hand.

Call.

[SuuPRlim]

arrrgh I misread the HH in my response I thought we'd bet the turn and he'd C/R. mmmmmmmmmmmmm

i thin this for sure opens his VALUE range up to a couple more hands that you beat but mmmmmm idk

ur right you need to be right roughly 1/3 times, but im not so sure you're going to be

[NoflopsHomer]

Yeah, I need to take a look at my own psychology. When I'm not running terribly well like I am at the mo. Agreed really silly not to bet the flop.

After he called my raise ott, I had flushes as a strong part of his range. Also have raggy Q's in his range. With a flush draw out there I couldn't see him flatting with JT or two pair or a set, but could easily be flatting with 67 combos. Can't be calling a gutshot, so I don't want to see spades, 5's, T's.

When he bet the river I was like WTF. He'd value bet JT here, a set, maybe 2 pair. But I can't see these hands in his range after his turn line. Would he flat TT's and has now hit his set?

So, a thin value bet with a Q, surely can't have called the turn on a gutshot, or he has air.

I spent a lot of time thinking during this hand. I figured I needed 34%ish equity to make a call. Then I considered how many busted draws he'd bet on the river. My call depends on how much risk he's taken on the turn, either by letting something better get there beating his set/straight, or he really has called the turn with a Jx hand.

Call.

Circular logic.

Do love lildave's jam vs QQ and TT but too many heroes in live poker.

[SuuPRlim]

Yeah, I need to take a look at my own psychology. When I'm not running terribly well like I am at the mo. Agreed really silly not to bet the flop.

After he called my raise ott, I had flushes as a strong part of his range. Also have raggy Q's in his range. With a flush draw out there I couldn't see him flatting with JT or two pair or a set, but could easily be flatting with 67 combos. Can't be calling a gutshot, so I don't want to see spades, 5's, T's.

When he bet the river I was like WTF. He'd value bet JT here, a set, maybe 2 pair. But I can't see these hands in his range after his turn line. Would he flat TT's and has now hit his set?

So, a thin value bet with a Q, surely can't have called the turn on a gutshot, or he has air.

I spent a lot of time thinking during this hand. I figured I needed 34%ish equity to make a call. Then I considered how many busted draws he'd bet on the river. My call depends on how much risk he's taken on the turn, either by letting something better get there beating his set/straight, or he really has called the turn with a Jx hand.

Call.

Circular logic.

Do love lildave's jam vs QQ and TT but too many heroes in live poker.

would be awesome *daydream music* 

cba figuring out how often it needs to work but id be pretty dam sure its a dam sigh higher than it actually will work lol

[Solaris]

Bet the flop as has been said.

As played, I sigh fold. Think nit tendencies post is spot on regarding the thought process as the only way you can call is if he's capable of turning a 2 pair hand into a bluff here.

[cambridgealex]

Is nit tendencies Jamie Sykes?

[Cf]

Is nit tendencies Jamie Sykes?

ya

[Nit Tendencies]

Is nit tendencies Jamie Sykes?

Hiiiiiiii Alex. Didn't you win a tourney once?

 

[Pinchop73]

Circular logic.

Please could you expand?

Also Jason just showed me nittendancies' hendonmob, and after seeing hardly anything on it compared to his I've concluded that he must be sh1t or something. </level>