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Author Topic: blonde NFL Fantasy League 2019/20  (Read 611930 times)
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #300 on: August 30, 2012, 10:23:19 AM »

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football Smiley

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan! Wink

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 10:26:13 AM by Sheriff Fatman » Logged

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« Reply #301 on: August 30, 2012, 10:27:10 AM »

Maybe I'll learn to use the correct version of two for a start!
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The Camel
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« Reply #302 on: August 30, 2012, 10:39:15 AM »

I feel like a poker player who randomly saw a seat open in a poker room.

Bought in and put my chips on the table before realising I'm sat with Ivey, Antonius and Dwan.

Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.
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« Reply #303 on: August 30, 2012, 10:51:36 AM »

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football Smiley

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan! Wink

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it. Tongue

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only one person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

Edit: Input an omitted word. Serious business.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 11:09:02 AM by jek187 » Logged

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« Reply #304 on: August 30, 2012, 11:04:55 AM »

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football Smiley

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan! Wink

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it. Tongue

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

This is a fantastic post.

I have never picked a fantasy soccer team. I think the whole process is anal and tedious. Football is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning.

I could never imagine anything was more important than QPR. And coming second, a distant way back are my weekly bets.

NFL is different for me. It is purely about gambling. I like the sport very much, but have zero commitment to any team. The team I support is the team I've put money on this week.

That's why I thought I'd give fantasy NFL a shot. The stats are not contrived, they are the very essence of the game. They are the very basis of which team I'm going to be supporting from week to week.

I think I'm in a bad spot starting off against you guys though.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 11:12:17 AM by The Camel » Logged

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« Reply #305 on: August 30, 2012, 11:10:45 AM »

QPR are playing Chelsea.

Hazard scores.

I could never feel any satisfaction that he was in my fantasy team.

And I pour scorn on any QPR fan that does feel even an ounce of happiness.

They can't be a true supporter imo.
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« Reply #306 on: August 30, 2012, 11:12:42 AM »


My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Jek - I might change my name to "that guy" nice analogy.

Sheriff thanks for taking the time for organising.
Draft was good, I like others failed to compensate for the 2 TE change but ho hum, its all a learning curve - made a bad mistake taking Vick so early and lack any real depth but it will be a fun season I am sure - maybe my 2 main RB's can have the occasional huge week together and upset the odd team to keep it interesting.

Good luck all.
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Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #307 on: August 30, 2012, 11:34:53 AM »

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football Smiley

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan! Wink

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it. Tongue

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

And, as you've mentioned the Dynasty League, this gives me a chance to give a bit of background info on the apparent ringer I've brought into the league.

I met jek several years ago when we were both active on 2+2, via a mutual UK-based friend on there.  The friend was playing in the Dynasty league and suggested me to jek as a possible player for a planned expansion to that league.  I'm still waiting to get into that league but a couple of years ago jek invited me to play a redrafter league he was running (I think as a trial run on potential D-League candidates to check whether they could demonstrate the required commitment - i.e. not abandoning teams mid-season).

That was my first Fantasy NFL experience, and I basically went through a lot of what you guys experienced last/this season.  At the time I knew the Eagles squad, the big name players and the names of 1st round draft picks from watching it on Sky that year.  Consequently, I drafted a 'newbie' squad (I remember Golden Tate being a pick) and scrambled to a lower mid-table finish.  However, by then I was hooked and had learnt enough of the basics to feel like I could do better.  2nd time around (last season), the league became the monster 'double roster' beast that I've mentioned on here a few times and I won it (in truth I destroyed the league part - I think I was 200pts ahead of the next team - the achievement was surviving the play-off lottery!)

I'd also become hooked enough by that point to want to play more leagues, which led to me starting this one last season.  So, in a roundabout way, without jek this league wouldn't have existed!  (He's also the one I've nicked many of the ideas from such as the variable buy-in, to give him due credit).

So for those anyone who's feeling out of their depth at the moment, it doesn't take long to become competitive (or get lucky) and most of you guys are way ahead in terms of starting knowledge base on general NFL than I was.

On a personal note, I'd definitely say jek is one of the smartest people I know and without doubt the most analytical, hence you'll often get the incredibly well thought out bits of info as earlier.  Like all of us, he likes to look for an edge in whatever he sets his mind to (he plays poker too, and likes the odd wager here and there!)

Jek - for your info - I'd say you're playing in a league where the NFL knowledge is way beyond a typical UK cross-section.  A lot of the guys here bet seriously on the NFL (amongst other things) and there's some very shrewd minds on here (Tighty, for example, is a walking encyclopaedia of knowledge on pretty much everything).  Even if some of them are still getting used to the Fantasy side of things, I expect this league to be really competitive (and a lot of fun).  I definitely think you have a shot at 2nd place if you bring your A-game!
« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 11:38:51 AM by Sheriff Fatman » Logged

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« Reply #308 on: August 30, 2012, 11:43:02 AM »

I feel like a poker player who randomly saw a seat open in a poker room.

Bought in and put my chips on the table before realising I'm sat with Ivey, Antonius and Dwan.

Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.

I think there is a good shot that I'm Elezra and if not the next one down the ladder from him Cheesy

I know I want Jek to post as much as he possibly can, so I can learn plenty and hopefully next year know what I'm doing.

I love NFL and absolutely love betting on it, but I know absolutely squat other than the players that I bet on for First TD each week.....

Really looking forward to this and even more gutted I couldn't do the draft now Sad
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« Reply #309 on: August 30, 2012, 11:44:11 AM »

I feel like a poker player who randomly saw a seat open in a poker room.

Bought in and put my chips on the table before realising I'm sat with Ivey, Antonius and Dwan.

Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.

I think there is a good shot that I'm Elezra and if not the next one down the ladder from him Cheesy

I know I want Jek to post as much as he possibly can, so I can learn plenty and hopefully next year know what I'm doing.

I love NFL and absolutely love betting on it, but I know absolutely squat other than the players that I bet on for First TD each week.....

Really looking forward to this and even more gutted I couldn't do the draft now Sad

No, you're Sammy George Smiley
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« Reply #310 on: August 30, 2012, 12:11:12 PM »

Jek,huge Cowboys fan here

Not only do I have to cope with us choking twice a year against the Eagles, and Sheriff trying not to gloat, I now have another Skins fan, this time with his very own franchise quarterback to support, to avoid?

and we start on National TV, UK and US away at the Giants?

FML.
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« Reply #311 on: August 30, 2012, 12:39:55 PM »

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football Smiley

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan! Wink

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it. Tongue

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

This is a fantastic post.

I have never picked a fantasy soccer team. I think the whole process is anal and tedious. Football is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning.

I could never imagine anything was more important than QPR. And coming second, a distant way back are my weekly bets.

NFL is different for me. It is purely about gambling. I like the sport very much, but have zero commitment to any team. The team I support is the team I've put money on this week.

That's why I thought I'd give fantasy NFL a shot. The stats are not contrived, they are the very essence of the game. They are the very basis of which team I'm going to be supporting from week to week.

I think I'm in a bad spot starting off against you guys though.

Unless you've got the lot on the opposition to win the title Tongue
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« Reply #312 on: August 30, 2012, 05:54:07 PM »


Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.


hmmm, I smell a wager
« Last Edit: August 30, 2012, 05:57:37 PM by ChipRich » Logged

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« Reply #313 on: August 30, 2012, 08:14:42 PM »

I could never imagine anything was more important than QPR

I can think of one goal at the end of last season that you definitely celebrated against QPR
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« Reply #314 on: August 31, 2012, 12:19:48 AM »

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

To answer your 2nd question, in a "standard" league (start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE) Arian Foster is usually the 1st player off the board. Then it's close between Rice/Rodgers followed by Shady. Imo, that would be in a 6pt passing TD league, in a 4pt passing TD league, Rodgers basically "has" to be outside the top 3. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp

However, in a league like this, TEs command a *huge* premium. TE24 is going to be starting for someone. TE24 may not have an EV above 4PPG. The elite 2 figure to be good for 10-11 PPG, and the next two figure to be good for ~9PPG, when you can get a 5-7PPGX2 advantage over a typical starter in the league, that's a crushing edge. So I was thrilled to get Graham at 1.09. I'd have taken him as high as 1.04 (only behind the Big 3 RBs). If Gronk had fallen to me at 2.04, I'd have been even more ecstatic. He was the 7th player on my board, behind just the aforementioned 4 players, Tron, and Rodgers.

To answer your 1st question, from a pure EV perspective, the value of draft picks goes in order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). The reason for this is because the difference in value from pick 1 to pick 12 > difference in value from pick 13 to pick 24. This is because as you proceed down your list of players, their values are going to get progressively closer together. So the 1st pick is usually the best, followed by the 2nd and so on. There are occasionally odd situations that come up that will change that, but I'll avoid getting into them here as I'm probably already being confusing enough.

The concept I'm sort of dancing around here is called "VBD" or Value Based Drafting. Here's an article that gives a very good description of it: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm. There are some inherent problems with VBD, but it's light years ahead of guessing where the value is.



great stuff Jek. I actually did pull the double TE off in a 14 man league drafting 14 each that starts only 6 outfield players and a K and D, with 1 TE and a flex that can be a TE where I traded picks pre draft and had pick 14 and 15. I managed to get Graham and Gronk there which was the plan when getting those picks together.From there I took Sproles and then Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith so in that team I almost start 5 wr it just happens that one is called a rb and two are called TE's. It backs up your example of having the real strength at TE that is way in front of the others and my rb and wr are in the second tier of players in those possies but much closer to their picks than my oppo's TE are to mine.

abs loved your relationship/FFB analogy too.

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