River spot vs MITCH!

[SuuPRlim]

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

I would imagine this is 100% a value bet. 8x/9x/77 are the only hands we loose to, I cant see any way any of those hands fold and we beat everything else

[david3103]

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

I would imagine this is 100% a value bet. 8x/9x/77 are the only hands we loose to, I cant see any way any of those hands fold and we beat everything else

But my thinking was along the lines of how often do we get called by worse on this board?

[pleno1]

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

If for value then you must have been sure he doesn't have a 9 and a thinking player has to fold unless he has a very good read on you.

If you're betting the river as a bluff then his raise suggests that he is pretty sure you don't have a 9 so now it's a matter of call/fold.

In the moment (at lower stakes but it's all proportionate) I'd be thinking about how oppo looks, how he reacted to my call on the flop and his reaction to my turn bet. We have a bluff-catcher and a half with the straight but not much more.
£125 to win £427 - is he bluffing this board often enough for that be decent value?



disclaimer - I'm not truly qualified to debate hands at this level but have posted in the hope that I may learn something when people explain why my thinking is wrong

wtf this post tilts me.

have you never bet for value with the intention of folding toresistance before

sorry if this sounds rude, im not a rude boi, nice guy really

[pleno1]

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

I would imagine this is 100% a value bet. 8x/9x/77 are the only hands we loose to, I cant see any way any of those hands fold and we beat everything else

But my thinking was along the lines of how often do we get called by worse on this board?

very often, i think we are repping 8x and nothing else when we bet this rive after betting £30 on the turn.

I simply cant comprehend peoples thought processes who think we could ever possibly be bluffing the river

[Nit Tendencies]

but jamie woldnt shove 9x her,e he would probably make ti smaller, because nothing worse calls when u make it so big (in theory ofc) and needs to be balanced if he is evr  (bluffing)

He should always shove 9x if is this thread is correct?

I always shove 9x here because no one folds to me ever- which is why I fold river cos they always expect me to call etc

My thoughts exactly.

[Pinchop73]

Really interesting hand!

Trivial fold imo.

I'm going to write a few of my level 1 thoughts, please feel free to flame me if you feel my thought process is retarded.

Ok. To me turn bet wreaks of one of two things, extreme strength, or, well, come to think of it, nothing else really, just an attempt at looking weak. If you were weak you'd think you'd just check behind here. I know you say you'll balance it out with air, but it's almost ALWAYS this way round, ie you don't bluff first.
 
I'm guessing you guys are friends so he knows your never value betting 1/4pot nor betting this amount as a semibluff. Also by just calling otf your repping a made hand as you'd probably raise the flop with a strong draw. (although this snippet obv has less merit to previously stated dynamics.)

Just to go off on a slight tangent a second, but value betting 1/4pot to set up subsequent 1/4pot bluffs to pick up folds is, to my level 1 thinking, a pretty laughable theory. Unless of course you have massive history, and expect to play huge volume vs this villain? It could work against regs in mtt when you have relatively shallow stacks I guess, but not at deep cash games. What's the point in putting effort into getting the least amount of value from the nuts, to then bloat the pot with air as your giving your villain great odds to float/call with a marginal hand?

Anyway, back to the hand. I honestly think Mitch 'I always get there' Johnson has 9x here.

As its highly improbable for you to also have 9x, he has to have you on 56/TJ or a fh from reasons stated in regard to your turn bet. He's not raising you here as he knows he's pretty confident that he's behind, but will certainly call hoping to pair up as you've given him the odds to do so.

Once the river hits he checks knowing that you have to value bet 56/TJ/88/77, then gives you the right odds to be able to call his raise even on such a scary board. Also gives you enough room to spazz all-in.

As played this is way to scary a board to value bet imo, so I check behind with showdown value. Unlucky on how the board ran out.

My level 1 thoughts anyway! Ta

[Pinchop73]

I mean I know we miss out on loads of value by not betting the river, but I just put that down to how unluckily the board runs out.

Saying all this, Mitch could of course be thin value raising his 47o.

[Whollyflush]

Not raising the flop is insane, especially this deep. You seem to be worrying about balancing for balancing sake, i doubt his whole range c/bets that board + alot of if probably isn't folding to 1 single raise. As played river is quite close between checking behind and bet/folding, theres very few hands he can be turning into a bluff here.

[pleno1]

why whollyflush? we bet tinnnny on turn, he will call witha ll flush draws that cbet, 10x, im pretty sure mtich opens 104s etc here. he can have 7x and turned it into a bluff?

[cambridgealex]

Its mitch ffs he probably had us dead on the flop.

[DMorgan]

tbh this whole hand looks ridic FPS-y imo mate.

Pre is standard obv

I don't agree with your reasons for not raising the flop. Raising is by far and away the best play imo. When you raise here you rep a pretty thin value range that is heavily weighted towards semibluffs - Mitch isn't going to be folding much. His cbet range on this flop is actually stronger than usual too because he must expect this flop to hit your preflop flatting range reasonably hard. I also disagree that he's barreling many turns with his air hands. There just aren't all that many hands that you're flatting this flop with and folding turns.

I really don't like your turn sizing either. It would be great if you didn't think that he would just flat his non-boat 9x hands to a 2/3rds pot sizing but I don't think that he is. Your range still contains a lot of gutshot+overcards, SD+pair, gutter+pair hands so Mitch isn't going to be very inclined to fold an 8 imo and he'll still raise his 9x. The small bet also just looks really like a weak-ish showdown hand because you wouldn't float and bluff with this sizing on this board, or at least I don't think that Mitch will think that you will and hero AQ which he wouldn't do to a bet of £80.

You could make an argument for the £30 inducing some bluffs but for the same reason that I don't think he's inclined to barrel, I don't think he'll raise as a bluff either.

Looking at it in more detail I think the river is closer to a call than I originally though because every weak showdown hand that I think he's putting you on the turn that isn't 8x is now folding river but I think he has a ton of 8x when he check/calls turn and in his mind you can still have some 9x and were trying to induce on the turn so actually I like a raise.  I think you're gunna get him off 8x with a jam almost all of the time and Mitch's sizing is very indicative of 8x.

[TheFallen]

havn't read all posts as cba to sit out of all my tables but hands involving MTF are always my fav to read so could stop myself from browsing the OP.


My first thought is Mitch has never made it to showdown without a full house. Read #1

read #2. Mitch doesn't like to fold much so calling the flop is super bad. especially since there is one more person in the pot and your hand has very fragile nutty value.


TBH i dont hate the turn thinking but your river sizing now sux. Why are you repping the exact hand strength you have with this bet? It screams 'im going for super thin value'.  Just super merge and use a more polarising bet size  - probably more likely to be called and makes folding to raise much easier. Its not like you ever need to be mega balanced here so you can bluff for cheaper in the future as you will probably never be in the same sort or spot again vs him.


No idea what to do now as its hard to imagine Mitch not having any showdown value here and and simply bluff catching. Having said that we are getting a ridic price and Mitch is the one person I can think of who is most likely to get out of line in these strange spots (see a hand posted by Alex a while back involving Florian).

[cambridgealex]

Yeh I have to agree with Dan and GED. I appreciate your reasons behind the fancy plays, but just don't think theres enough merit to them in favour of raising the flop and bombing turn.

[Mitch]

Just off out, will respond when i get chance.

Quite a lot of leveling going off for most of the night with Me, Jamie n Dave sat in a line in a short handed nitfest.

[cambridgealex]

Mbn to be jamie and dave