River spot vs MITCH!

[Nit Tendencies]

I did kind of want the first hand I posted to be from a HSMTT, but this spot is kinda tough and since Mitch posts on here I thought it'd be interesting to see what you guys think.

Reads:

So far in the game Mitch has been kinda quiet, playing a pretty solid TAG style and mumbling some disgruntled comments about how bad his seat is (I'm on his direct left) because I was messing with him a little bit by 3betting him in pos and raising/floating his cbets. He'd been playing pretty well from what I'd seen and hadn't got out of line yet.

OK, Mitch is playing about 2k I think and I'm sat about 1300 deep and we're playing 2/5 with an occasional straddle to 10 on the btn. This pot wasn't straddled.

He opens to 15 in the c/o and I peel the btn with . One peeler cold and we see a flop.

He bets 35, I call the peeler folds. I just call here because I'd been floating a lot of flops and it fitted into how I'd been playing much more than raising, and I thought he'd get his barrel on on quite a lot of turn cards.

Turn is a gross . He checks reasonably quickly, I bet 30 (I like to do this sometimes against good thinking players so I can overbet the river and fuck with their head a bit and for balance, it means I can do this as a really cheap bluff later on). He calls.

River is the . He checks, I bet 100 he thinks for about 30 secs and makes it 225.

Can he really ever be bluffing here? Or more appropriately, is he bluffing enough in a spot where he can easily bluff catch a lot of hands. I thought that he could be trying to buy me out of a chop with A high, or had 67/T7 and is now bluffing. I guess it's hard for me to call unless I've got an 8 or a 9, but it really didn't look like he expected me to fold that much, since he's repping pretty thin. I'm pretty sure he always barrels the turn with a 9 or a turned boat (but might be wrong). And because of my turn sizing I'm aware that I've opened up his turn calling range massively so he could have called with a pair of uno cards on the turn and now just be getting FPS, but I honestly don't think he steps out of line that much on this board texture surely.

It just really felt like 78/8x to me.

Does anybody think he's bluffing enough to call? I don't want comments about my turn bet because that was just a stylistic thing really.

[Dubai]

Well if you trust your instincts then shove?

[pleno1]

Really interesting hand. I understand your reasons for flatting flop and agree that game-flow is super important when deciding what to do here, but I think because of stack szies, I would raise. If we are going to flat, then I dislike your turn bet, I do the exact same play qutie alot.. looking like we are going for free showdown on the river then overbet and they are like btufnjbb bn jktb wte i call.

I still think, flop 85, turn 275, river jam would be nice, i'd also blink a few times under your glasses as he will obv think he has a live tell and you're polarised. I also don't think he's folding the flop very often unless he has complete air.

What was your plan on K/Q/A/10/J rivers?

Live cash is so different to online, when you bet £30 he really is calling alottttttttt,  flush draws/straight draws 76/710 and Mitch being Mitch he could def do something spewy/creative here. When you bet 30 ott I realllllllly expect that he thinks you're going to check back the river alot, also although its a really bad card to bluff, he's probably going to sigh call A high, never folding full house/straight vs you w/dynamics. I think because he is expecting you to check back the river alot with weak-decent showdown he will donk the river with a full house alot of the time. Thoughts?

[pleno1]

Well if you trust your instincts then shove?

If we think he never has a 9 and he can sometimes be bluffing then surely   call >>>>>>>>> shoving.

Although we probably do have a 9 in our range, he never expects us to have 9x in our range when we bet 1/5 pot or wte on the turn, so he wlll,probably jsut flcik it in with 8x as our line makes no sense innit.

[Dubai]

No he said he thinks he is value craising 8x

Getting caught bluffing here is probably +ev for us anyway!



I prob fold river readless but he posted reads in op

[pleno1]

No he said he thinks he is value craising 8x

Getting caught bluffing here is probably +ev for us anyway!



I prob fold river readless but he posted reads in op

yeh but he is value c/raising 8x because he thinks we NEVEER have 9x, so doubt he would fold if we decide to go for the ole 3b.

[Dubai]

People don't think like this even if they pretend to- people aren't c raise snapping 8x for 1100 on the river

[Dubai]

And if they are, never leave

[silverslick]

He can definitly be bluffing with the dynamics between you. My gut would be to fold. When you bet on the river what were you hoping to be called by? Given the board I would have preferred a check back on the river.

[pleno1]

but jamie woldnt shove 9x her,e he would probably make ti smaller, because nothing worse calls when u make it so big (in theory ofc) and needs to be balanced if he is evr  (bluffing)

[cambridgealex]

Is this hand played with THE Mitch “Mitch” Johnson?

[Dubai]

but jamie woldnt shove 9x her,e he would probably make ti smaller, because nothing worse calls when u make it so big (in theory ofc) and needs to be balanced if he is evr  (bluffing)

He should always shove 9x if is this thread is correct?

I always shove 9x here because no one folds to me ever- which is why I fold river cos they always expect me to call etc

[cambridgealex]

IMO he has 8x and isn't folding.

[Dubai]

If he is never folding 8x then we should never shove anything other than 9x- but there is no comments in op about villains " ability" to r-c 8x

[david3103]

Were you betting £100 for value or as a bluff?

If for value then you must have been sure he doesn't have a 9 and a thinking player has to fold unless he has a very good read on you.

If you're betting the river as a bluff then his raise suggests that he is pretty sure you don't have a 9 so now it's a matter of call/fold.

In the moment (at lower stakes but it's all proportionate) I'd be thinking about how oppo looks, how he reacted to my call on the flop and his reaction to my turn bet. We have a bluff-catcher and a half with the straight but not much more.
£125 to win £427 - is he bluffing this board often enough for that be decent value?



disclaimer - I'm not truly qualified to debate hands at this level but have posted in the hope that I may learn something when people explain why my thinking is wrong