NFL Betting blog

[Sheriff Fatman]

Managed to make a small profit last night despite hitting a stop loss on one spread bet (bought the Pats on a supremacy index that included turnovers, as Brady is fairly secure on that score - oops!)

My Bankers Treble on Sporting Index - Titans, Chargers, Raiders.

Singles on Seahawks and Raiders outright.

Also had a treble on Browns -1.5, Lions -3.5 and Saints -4.  Half point losses are so tilting, especially when there's 2 of them in the same bet!!

At least the betting went better than the Fantasy Leagues.  Nothing makes up for watching the Eagles stink it up to the Giants on live TV though.

[LeKnave]

any1 have an opinion on 2nite?

on roy helu first td @ 25/1 and anytime @ 4/1

[Sheriff Fatman]

any1 have an opinion on 2nite?

on roy helu first td @ 25/1 and anytime @ 4/1

The original line was something like Dallas -6, which was ridiculous as these games are generally close.  This was presumably down to Romo, Bryant and Felix Jones possibly being out, although I expect all to play now.

Washington +3 @ 2.05 still appeals to me, as does the outright at 2.5, although I'm waivering more and more as the day progresses.

The Helu bets are interesting ones, as he showed a lot of potential in his debut, so not sure what Washington have planned at RB in workload split between him and Hightower.  Even if Hightower gets the majority of carries, I think Helu might get the goalline carries.

In general, there's a lot of uncertainty who's going to be starting tonight, so I think I'll wait until the inactive list is out before deciding what bets, if any, to have.  I like Washington's chances to win a close game even if all the maybe's end up playing for Dallas.  If it turns out that Kitna is going to be throwing to Kevin Ogletree and Jesse Holley, and handing off to DeMarco Murray then I really like their chances, although the odds would shift if that turned out to be the case.

Be interesting to get Tighty's view's as a Cowboy fanboy.

[claypole]

Not a bad day in the end, just the 15k or so the WCOOP cost me today but winning on the NFL is much sweeter...

Sorry  - and thanks for the Colts pick, makes me feel worse

[Sheriff Fatman]

Forgot to add in my last post, the main reason for my concern with Dallas is how effectively Romo can play with a fractured rib and a week after puncturing a lung.  He's going to be wearing the same Kevlar armour that Vick used last season when he broke ribs, but Vick was out for a few weeks in between and I suspect that the Washington D-Line will be getting up close and personal early on tonight to give him a little test or two.

You have to figure there's a fair chance that he doesn't make it through the whole game and I doubt he's going to be 100% effective anyway.  That being said, he managed to come back into the game and play with the injuries last week!

[action man]

i love washington tonight on the ML

[TightEnd]

Should be very close. I like the underdog skins for two reasons. 1 Dallas often choked in the clutch and 2 not sure the Dallas offense can have any continuity with the fitness concerns and lack of run game

[redarmi]

Apologies if this sounds a bit condescending but nobody should be taking +3 2.05 when there is plenty of +3.5 1.88 available.  +3 1.88 is about equal to +3 2.15 maybe even a bit bigger.  Over an NFL season that is the difference between winning and losing... I like the Skins +3.5 tonight and wouldn't be put off by the move from +6 as the difference is very small, it doesn't in any way represent a big move.  The cowboys are as close as the NFL gets to having a MU and on Monday nights they will always be overbet and they really don't look very good this year.

[TightEnd]

and they really don't look very good this year.

not sure this is true, they are a 9-7 type team at worst. Weaknesses for sure but competitive. The defence could be very good and will keep them in a lot of games

That said, I still don't think they are any value tonight

[WPIL]

Haven't watched a MNF game for a long time, where can I watch the Skins go to 3-0 in the UK?

[redarmi]

and they really don't look very good this year.

not sure this is true, they are a 9-7 type team at worst. Weaknesses for sure but competitive. The defence could be very good and will keep them in a lot of games

That said, I still don't think they are any value tonight

My comment might have been a bit harsh for the season but not for tonight.  #30 running offense in the league with only 55 ypg and Austin out and Romo playing with cracked ribs to limit the pass offense tonight makes me wonder where the points will come from tonight.....starting to talk myself into a bet on unders now.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Gone for Washington +3.5.

Also, a couple of punts on the spreads

Helu/Murray Rushing Yds - Buy @ 5
Cowboys TD Shirt Nos - Buy @ 165

See how long I can stay awake for to sweat them.  I'll set the line at end of 1st Qtr.

[Horneris]

This is fucking shite

[redarmi]

Both these teams seem to think they have scored when they reach the 20 yrd line.

[TightEnd]

Get in. Great win with no offence. Defense going to be gooooood