NFL Betting blog

[kukushkin88]

Drunken betting is usually a disaster obv. and I did come up with this one after getting back from the pub late last night but when I woke up this morning it still seemed a like a good idea so I´m on: NE at Pittsburgh No Touchdown 100-1.

IMO This game really shouldn´t be the longest on the whole coupon for no TD, longer than NO at St Louis for example. Pretty hard to get a handle on what the right price is but I would have thought it´s closer to 50´s.

[redarmi]

Drunken betting is usually a disaster obv. and I did come up with this one after getting back from the pub late last night but when I woke up this morning it still seemed a like a good idea so I´m on: NE at Pittsburgh No Touchdown 100-1.

IMO This game really shouldn´t be the longest on the whole coupon for no TD, longer than NO at St Louis for example. Pretty hard to get a handle on what the right price is but I would have thought it´s closer to 50´s.

Isn't the price for no TD jusrtn a simple poisson distribution based on the likely number of TD's?  Based on the mid points for each teams number of TD's that likely number of TD's is 6.1.  If that is correct then the true price for no TD is 444/1.  I do think points is a bit high but that 6.1 TD expectancy from Sporting Index would have to be off by 1.5 TD's for this to even be a fair price.  I can see an argument where you could argue that NFL TD's don't fot poisson distribution perfectly but for rough estimates like this I think it is good enough.  Also if this is off by enough then total points would probably be a better play from an EV position.  If we assume that each number is worth about 2% probability wise then if the line was 10 points off then it would be like 70% chance to go under 51 so at an EV of 133%  it would be a maximum bet on it's own with obviously much bigger variance.

[kukushkin88]

As mentioned earlier I´m on the unders already, it was basically in thinking how far I think that line is out that led me to think the no TD might represent value. I guess the main error I´ve made is assuming the other no TD prices are approximately right (instead of just doing the maths), when as you´ve highlighted above they pretty clearly are not. I´m confident it won´t be the worst tenner I´ll ever spend :-) but I´ll certainly have to chalk it up as a failure in the quest for value.

Genuinely thanks again for the help with stuff like this.

[Josedinho]

Fancy a small double on the Niffle tomorrow night. Detriot Carolina any good?

[ChipRich]

Fancy a small double on the Niffle tomorrow night. Detriot Carolina any good?

Il be absolutely stunned if Lions cant beat Denver.

Unsure on Carolina, i did think i liked them then a shrewd lad i no from the Belly told me he doesnt like them at all so i havent touched it.

[LeKnave]

Think theres a couple of big prices for first td in the MIA@NYG game so have gone in:

Daniel Thomas @ 10/1  StanJames
Victor Cruz @ 20/1 StanJames

sigh Daniel Thomas is OUT, prolly the best ROI i'll have this week at least! 0%!

gonna replace him with Reggie Bush @ 11/1 shouldn't last long when the news filters through.

chucking in Lex Hilliard with him @ 25/1 for insurance as i don't think Bush can handle all the touches on a drive.

[ChipRich]

Think theres a couple of big prices for first td in the MIA@NYG game so have gone in:

Daniel Thomas @ 10/1  StanJames
Victor Cruz @ 20/1 StanJames

sigh Daniel Thomas is OUT, prolly the best ROI i'll have this week at least! 0%!

gonna replace him with Reggie Bush @ 11/1 shouldn't last long when the news filters through.

chucking in Lex Hilliard with him @ 25/1 for insurance as i don't think Bush can handle all the touches on a drive.

on these 2 obv.

We've had so many of these huge value coos this season because of injuries etc and none have landed yet, get therrrrrrrre plz.

[ChipRich]

added a single on Bills -3.5 10/11 to go with my Houston/Lions double.

And an acca on Giants, Saints, Bills and Dallas all on handicap

lets gooooooooooo

[LeKnave]

swedrfgthyujiol;lkjhgfrdesadfgvhj

[LeKnave]

sigh, knew i had a bad feeling about that!  what we on in the late?

[ChipRich]

added a single on Bills -3.5 10/11 to go with my Houston/Lions double.

And an acca on Giants, Saints, Bills and Dallas all on handicap

lets gooooooooooo

oioii, single pissed it. Double was fairly ez too.

Acca not so good.

Fancy a small double on the Niffle tomorrow night. Detriot Carolina any good?

Il be absolutely stunned if Lions cant beat Denver.

Unsure on Carolina, i did think i liked them then a shrewd lad i no from the Belly told me he doesnt like them at all so i havent touched it.

hope you got on met.

[ChipRich]

Witten anytime and 1st in Dallas game. Maclin 1st too.

No idea whats gna happen really, been saying Dallas all week but unsure now.

[ChipRich]

Witten anytime and 1st in Dallas game. Maclin 1st too.

No idea whats gna happen really, been saying Dallas all week but unsure now.

oioiiiiii, The Maclin

[Marky147]

I knocked it in but have a getout tomorrow with a random punt I did with the £13 I had left in sports

29/10/2011 0000221 Treble (To win)  1 £12.81  New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers Total points  Under +52.0 10/11   
          San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Money Line Kansas City Chiefs  17/10 
          Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers Money Line Minnesota Vikings  8/5 

[Marky147]

Witten anytime and 1st in Dallas game. Maclin 1st too.

No idea whats gna happen really, been saying Dallas all week but unsure now.

oioiiiiii, The Maclin

I was paying so little attention to this game I only just read it on nfl.com..... Nice one Rich I think I'm gonna have to start getting on some of these TD bets you seem to be cleaning up!!!