NFL Betting blog

[TightEnd]

great year to need a qb

Luck, Barkley, Griffin, landry Jones

teams like Miami, seattle, washington who will pick reasonably high might end up turning round franchieses if they land one of these...and then there are cleveland and jags who might give up on tehirs and try and land another

teams like the rams who don't need a qb but will be picking top 5 are going to extract high prices to draft out too

April will be a lot of fun

[DungBeetle]

Think I'm going to have a big punt on Xmas Eve with a few wines in tow.

Any thoughts on my picks?  All just straight up, no handicap.  Handicaps tilt me too much as I keep losing by half a point.

San Diego to keep their dream alive at Detroit
Seattle to keep the roll going at home to San Francisco
Kansas to follow up their win over GB and beat out of sorts Oakland
Carolina to beat Tampa
Cincinatti to kill off Arizona play off dream

[LeedsRhodesy]

Tonight anyone??

[Sheriff Fatman]

Indy are too big at 3.7 (Ladbrokes) for me, so worth a punt for value.

Texans have blown the bye positions now, in all likelihood, and are guaranteed a home wild card game already, so the priority now will be to get/stay healthy.  TJ Yates is coming off a poor game and the defense is really missing Wade Phillips presence and were tortured by Carolina at the weekend.

Indy, on the other hand, are coming off a win, another win doesn't hurt them in the No1 draft pick race, and it's a prime time, divisional game at home and they'll want to prove a point to the newly crowned divisional champions.

I see a good chance that Indy can come out on top of a low scoring game.

[redarmi]

What has happened to Wade Phillips Sheriff?

[Sheriff Fatman]

What has happened to Wade Phillips Sheriff?

Had an operation a couple of weeks ago and is currently recuperating.  I think it was the D-Line coach calling the plays on Sunday, but they didn't look the same unit.

He's a huge part of the transformation of their defence this season, so I think his absence significantly downgrades them as a unit.

NB: I'm working on the assumption that he's not back tonight, although I've not checked for sure.  However, he was expected to be out for at least a couple of weeks when he had the op.

[Sheriff Fatman]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7351813/houston-texans-coordinator-wade-phillips-taking-medical-leave

Turns out it was the linebackers coach calling the plays, not the D-Line coach.

[Linux]

great year to need a qb

Luck, Barkley, Griffin, landry Jones

teams like Miami, seattle, washington who will pick reasonably high might end up turning round franchieses if they land one of these...and then there are cleveland and jags who might give up on tehirs and try and land another

teams like the rams who don't need a qb but will be picking top 5 are going to extract high prices to draft out too

April will be a lot of fun

Think Barkley is about to announce (9pm) that he's staying at usc

[redarmi]

I had heard he had health problems but definitely didn't take it into consideration on Sunday when I bet them.  Slight aside but I think UK NFL fans/punters underestimate the importance of coaches and co-ordinators in general because we have normally come from football as our first sport where their importance during the game is much less.  If I had confidence in Houstons D tonight I would have this as one of those games where I couldn't make points low enough.....Haven't looked at the market but feels like a game where below 37 would be the right mark....maybe 36?

[redarmi]

Anyone care to offer a price that Luck isn't #1 pick this year?  Also interested in price he isn't #1 QB to go in draft.

[Linux]

Anyone care to offer a price that Luck isn't #1 pick this year?  Also interested in price he isn't #1 QB to go in draft.

I've got a bet with Brent.

I have if colts get #1 they will get Luck

Think Brents pretty dead

[Sheriff Fatman]

Anyone care to offer a price that Luck isn't #1 pick this year?  Also interested in price he isn't #1 QB to go in draft.

Very tough!

As much as he's the 'sure thing' at the moment, there's so much that can still happen before April.  Injury, obviously, but combine and pro-day performances still have a huge part to come.  I think the risk is not that Luck performs poorly, more that one of the others does something outstanding.  Also, is there a chance that Indy (still highly likely to be them) see a better scheme fit in someone else?  Unlikely perhaps, but not impossible.

Two things stick in my mind too.  A couple of years ago, Jake Locker was the name being talked about as the sure thing No1 pick, but his stock had fallen massively by the draft due mainly to worries about accuracy from the pocket.  He didn't just drop down to the number 2 option - he was probably somewhere around 5 or 6 in the pre-draft ranks.

Also, leading into the draft last year, most scouts seemed to rank Blaine Gabbert as a more NFL-ready quarterback than Cam Newton, which goes to show that there's still a huge amount of uncertainty in this.  The Panthers ignored all this and went for Newton, and look how well it's worked out so far.  They obviously saw something which made them ignore 'concensus opinion'.

Given the hype he must be a very short odds-on price in both markets, which implies that there should be fairly generous odds against on the converse happening.  I would suspect that there's some value available betting against him, as surely the volume of money would be piling on him being the No1 pick at pretty much any price available.  I think the public perception is that its a sure thing (no-one's talking about who Indy take, it's all about whether Luck and Manning can be on the same roster) and it'll be priced accordingly.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I've asked the question to an American friend of mine who likes to set odds on wacky NFL markets (like our Fantasy League matchups going into Monday's games).  I'm intrigued to see what he comes up with.

[KarmaDope]

Anyone care to offer a price that Luck isn't #1 pick this year?  Also interested in price he isn't #1 QB to go in draft.

Now that Barkley has announced he's not entering the draft, prices just shrunk a lot.

Looking at the other options, Griffin III has a history of knee problems, Landry Jones is actually putting up stats worse than last year from the looks of it (comp pct is 63 compared to 65 last year for example) and the only other option that I'm aware of that Tighty didn't mention is Brandon Weeden, and he's 28 ffs.

I'll be very surprised if Luck doesn't go #1, especially w/ Indy being the #1 seeds.

[vegaslover]

i think Luck will go 1 with Indy obvo in the hunt for him with the Manning injury