NFL Betting blog

[the sicilian]

Like the SF 49ers at home with that defense getting a 3 point start I must say

If anyone is going to slow that offense down, that defense will

Is it not the case that NO has never won a play off game outside a dome? To get to the superbowl they have to go through candlestick and NYG or Lambeau

True the saints don't travel well but was interesting to see the way pierre thomas ran on saturday giving them an added option to possibly keep the secondary off balance.

Whatever happens they need to get pressure on Brees... if they give him time he will destroy them no matter how good the secondary is.

Also if the saints get in front i don't think the niners offense is powerful enough to play catch up.

I think the saints will prevail...but up in Greenbay in the cold up against an offense that can keep pace will be an epic encounter.

[redarmi]

+3 49ers with the extra rest stood out to me too.  High powered offenses are always overvalued a bit in post season....reminds me a bit of the greatest show on turf.

[bobby1]

Like the SF 49ers at home with that defense getting a 3 point start I must say

If anyone is going to slow that offense down, that defense will

Is it not the case that NO has never won a play off game outside a dome? To get to the superbowl they have to go through candlestick and NYG or Lambeau

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1015136-nfl-playoff-picture-why-san-francisco-49ers-will-thwart-saints-title-hopes

That was my thinking Rich.

The Saints have looked brill in recent weeks in their own dome and away in other domes.

They have played 5 games outdoors on turf this season and beat Carolina, Jacksonville and Tennessee, the 2 losses were to Green Bay and Tampa. I've done this quickly so hope its right, they have averaged 40 pts in 9 home games and averaged 26 away in 5 games on outdoor turf.

Of those away games the only team the beat by more than 5 points was Jacksonville and none of those teams have a defence that's in the class of San Fran.


The other thought I had was the winner of the NFC West has been generally overlooked going into the play offs the last few seasons as that Div has featured some very bad teams in the last few years. The year that Arizona won that div they played Carolina in the play offs as 10 point underdogs and won, eventually making the Superbowl that season. Last season Seattle were 11 point dogs at home to New Orleans and won. If that Seattle team of last year can knock the Saints out then surely San Fran can.

[TightEnd]

Dean alluded to the concern I have which is that NO can pound the ball too, they have a running game if the weather is bad etc etc, so they are for sure not as one dimensional as the Packers (albeit the Packers one dimension is six wide receivers, a great tight end and rodgers deep...)

That said, the relative underperformance of NO in outdoor away games is a trend going back several years. Their defense is so so and if that offence is slowed down then it might come down to turnovers. Give me the SF defence in that battle

No one would be surprised to see the Saints at GB in the Championship game, but I wouldn't be betting them -3 for sure


In the other one yes NYG are peaking at the right time, but I don't think their secondary will hold the Packers to few enough points to give Eli and the offense a chance


In the AFC I can't see past the Patriots and the Ravens. However Baltimore -9 is unbackable...Houston's defence is too good to be going against them and nine points, I'd rather take a stab on a Pats blowout and buy the spread there 

[the sicilian]

Cant believe the way the steelers gave up that play in OT last night...they had pretty much shut down Teebow for the 2nd half and i'd held my nerve all the way through after backing Steelers from the off.... that last drive before OT why didnt they run to try and setup a makeable kick in the thin air of Denver...instead drops back fumbles and puts them out of range .
Thought they had the momentum to take down OT even without the ball first and loaded again... sigh the boys cost me dear last night

[bobby1]

Quite a strange stat for New England.

They have only played 2 games this season against teams that ended the season with a winning record and lost both those games to Pittsburgh and the Giants.

[Josedinho]

Tebow never stops giving

[Marky147]

Even got the Hitler videos on the go now

[LeKnave]

'Steady' Eddie Royal FTD @ 22/1
Eddie Royal over 29.5 yards @ 10/11
Denver Broncos @ 7.8

[the sicilian]

Just starting to go through the games this weekend :

Despite history and their less than perfect travels I like Saints -3.5 ....

Although the Niner's have a good defense looking at their schedule they have yet to come up against an offense even remotely as powerful as the Saints. I think the key is the Saints O line with 3 pro bowlers up front..they have a slight weakness on the left side I think and its going to be essential for SF to get pressure on Brees. I think the talent up front will allow brees the time he needs and if he gets that i don't think there is any defensive scheme that will be able to cover the arsenal of weapons at his disposal from the big deep threat, the big mis match he has with graham and the outlets in the flat with Sproles etc. Also Saints are surprisingly the 6th best rushers in the league..the arm of Brees obviously opening channels as teams drop off in coverage

The Saints are heavy Blitzers and SF have given up a lot of sacks.

Most of SF games have been close affairs with the O relying on the D to keep it within touching distance and the boot of the kicker. If they let the Saints get 2 scores in front its going to be curtains as they will never be able to trade catch up blows.

I am biased as the Saints have always been my team, right back when they were plain awful ( which was always ). i remember the high of when they made their first playoff game and the desolation when they lost it Lolz..

Its going to be a fantastic game but I have a big lump on at -3.5

[the sicilian]

Just heard an interesting stat on sports centre... Over the past 3 years the saints have the best road record in the NFL... Blows that myth then...

[bobby1]

Just heard an interesting stat on sports centre... Over the past 3 years the saints have the best road record in the NFL... Blows that myth then...

Hi mate,

Did it differentiate between road games indoors on a fast surface against outdoor turf tho?

[Acidmouse]

Looking forward to a big 49ers game, please dont let me down the wife will be super grumby if they lose.

[the sicilian]

Just heard an interesting stat on sports centre... Over the past 3 years the saints have the best road record in the NFL... Blows that myth then...

Hi mate,

Did it differentiate between road games indoors on a fast surface against outdoor turf tho?

im such a stato.. just checked
over the last 3 years on the road

13/17 on grass
5/7 turf/dome

Pretty impressive even on grass i think...... i think its maybe they don't win as convincingly on grass on the road as they do at home in the dome where they pretty much run over people...

[bobby1]

Just heard an interesting stat on sports centre... Over the past 3 years the saints have the best road record in the NFL... Blows that myth then...

Hi mate,

Did it differentiate between road games indoors on a fast surface against outdoor turf tho?

im such a stato.. just checked
over the last 3 years on the road

13/17 on grass
5/7 turf/dome

Pretty impressive even on grass i think...... i think its maybe they don't win as convincingly on grass on the road as they do at home in the dome where they pretty much run over people...

we sound similar mate coz I did the same thing when I got home ;o)

I think the key in those stats is they play 2 games every season away to Div rivals who in recent seasons have been mostly poor. In the last 2 years I think they have only beaten 1 team away on turf that had a winning record which was Tampa last season. Tho I have to be careful I don't just ignore the season 3 years ago where they did have a good record away on turf.The good thing for them this week is the weather fcast in San Fran on game day looks to be good.

When I started following NFL my team were the Saints and I still have a slight lean to them and and also the Jets. The last season we had Brooks as QB I bet them to win the Superbowl to win a good amount  and did the same the year we reached the Play offs. Didnt have a penny on the year we won it tho ;o(