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cambridgealex
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« on: October 05, 2011, 02:36:23 PM » |
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Inspired by the dice thread, see if you can work out this one.
If a game show host tosses a coin 100 times and gets heads every time, what are the chances that the 101st toss is heads?
a) >50%
b) 50%
c) <50%
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millidonk
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2011, 02:37:50 PM » |
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none of the above obv.
Nobody would ever flip 101 heads.
so 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000%
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kinboshi
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2011, 02:38:47 PM » |
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Depends.
Is the show rigged, is it a double-headed coin, is it a big set up, what sort of crap game show is it where the host tosses a coin 100 times? Is there nothing on the other side?
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
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Horneris
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2011, 02:39:49 PM » |
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a)
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Jon MW
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2011, 02:41:01 PM » |
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Depends.
Is the show rigged, is it a double-headed coin, is it a big set up, what sort of crap game show is it where the host tosses a coin 100 times? Is there nothing on the other side?
Have you not watched ITV recently? It's only a matter of time |
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
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zerofive
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2011, 02:51:31 PM » |
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If we plot the results into an m by n matrix, one can simply deduce that there is no coin.
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gatso
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2011, 02:52:56 PM » |
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Depends.
Is the show rigged, is it a double-headed coin, is it a big set up, what sort of crap game show is it where the host tosses a coin 100 times? Is there nothing on the other side?
Have you not watched ITV recently? It's only a matter of time from the little that I saw that was the basic premise of red or black |
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If you get to the yeasty clunge you've gone too far
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2011, 02:55:56 PM » |
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You have seen him toss the coin in the air 100 times and it has landed on heads every time. You have seen the other side of the coin is indeed tails.
Given this information what can you intelligently conclude about the next toss?
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zerofive
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2011, 02:58:45 PM » |
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You have seen him toss the coin in the air 100 times and it has landed on heads every time. You have seen the other side of the coin is indeed tails.
Given this information what can you intelligently conclude about the next toss?
I won't use Vaseline again, because it burns like hell afterwards? |
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doubleup
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2011, 03:19:41 PM » |
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You have seen him toss the coin in the air 100 times and it has landed on heads every time. You have seen the other side of the coin is indeed tails.
Given this information what can you intelligently conclude about the next toss?
its a bayesian thing I would imagine - some sort of probability of being rigged and 100 heads in a rows vs probability of not beig rigged and 100 heads in a row. |
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boldie
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2011, 03:21:48 PM » |
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<50% and only because theoratically it could land on it's side... simples. The previous coin tosses have nothing to do with the next (assuming it's not rigged..100 heads in a row is unusual but obv not impossible)
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2011, 03:22:40 PM » |
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You have seen him toss the coin in the air 100 times and it has landed on heads every time. You have seen the other side of the coin is indeed tails.
Given this information what can you intelligently conclude about the next toss?
its a bayesian thing I would imagine - some sort of probability of being rigged and 100 heads in a rows vs probability of not beig rigged and 100 heads in a row. Yeh I mean the probability that you get 100 heads in a row is 7.88860905 × 10-3, so unlikely in fact, that you'd be forced to conclude that the experiment is probably rigged or the coin is biased. The interesting thing is, this logic implies that if you toss any coin once and it's heads, the chance of the 2nd toss being heads is very slightly more than 50% |
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2011, 03:29:15 PM » |
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The answer is c)
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boldie
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2011, 03:31:58 PM » |
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You have seen him toss the coin in the air 100 times and it has landed on heads every time. You have seen the other side of the coin is indeed tails.
Given this information what can you intelligently conclude about the next toss?
its a bayesian thing I would imagine - some sort of probability of being rigged and 100 heads in a rows vs probability of not beig rigged and 100 heads in a row. Yeh I mean the probability that you get 100 heads in a row is 7.88860905 × 10-3, so unlikely in fact, that you'd be forced to conclude that the experiment is probably rigged or the coin is biased. The interesting thing is, this logic implies that if you toss any coin once and it's heads, the chance of the 2nd toss being heads is very slightly more than 50% Or, you're overthinking it. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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cambridgealex
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2011, 03:33:41 PM » |
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The answer is c)
The answer is clearly a) |
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