Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

I don't really want to get involved further in this cricket match but I think SA are superb value at 2.40 or so here.  145 or so is probably an okay score on this pitch especially if they can get David Warner and Shane Watson (especially Watson...if you don't get him you will be done in 15 overs) out early.

FMP

[Pelham Boy]

Wow. Richard Hughes hands in license after picking up ban at Kempton tonight.

[redarmi]

£15 Button to win the Korean GP @ 19/5 Betfair

Fairly simple reasoning.  From this season only a handful of drivers can win realsitically and they certainly represent 95% of probabilities.  To my mind they are Vettel, Button, Alonso and Hamilton.  My assessment of the likliehood of each winning the race given Vettels likely lesser motivation is Vettel 40%, Button 25%, Alonso 15%, Hamilton 15% (he seems to be gone at the game.....sad).  I may be slightly underestimating Webber but he is showing nothing either.  If Vettel underperforms in qualifying I might top this up.  I think given car differences etc Button has shown himself to be the best driver in the game this year which is really nice to see after many commentators talked down his championship year.

Pretty pissed off that the cricket isn't being shown and listening to Bumble and Nick Knight commentate is tilting me so might just leave that alone.  I had a slight preference for England pre match at 6/5 but impossible to bet on without seeing what the ball is doing etc.

[redarmi]

Couple of early racing bets:

£10 Focail Eile @ 5/1 445 Haydock
£10 Torres Del Paine @ 13/2 550 Wolv

Those of you that have the Racing Post will see that these are Eddie Fremantles tips.  This isn't a coincidence.  When I first bet for a living it was pre betfair days and I used to go racing everyday and every day I would get on the train and there was almost always this big tall guy there with a bag with raceform form books in it and from setting off to getting to wherever we were going his nose would never be out of the formbook and when we got to the track he would be there in the betting ring and everytime he had a bet the bookies would rub the price off, normally they were rags (outsiders) and as a 33/1 shot went clear there would be one lone figure in the stands shouting it home, often with his hand in the air.  That big tall man was Eddie 'the shoe' Fremantle and I eventually learnt that he used to be 'Man on the Spot' at the Sporting Life and since that had shut he had gone out on his own.  If I found myself near him in the ring I wouold jot down in my racing post which horse he had backed or, at least, which one the bookies had rubbed off when he bet (do bookies even rub prices off anymore??? isn't it all electronic now?) and on my way home I would try and figure out what he had seen in the horse.  For a while I found it mystifying and then the pieces began to fall into place.  One day I was meeting a mate by the parade ring and there was Eddie dilligently watching the horses walking around and making notes so over time I decided to do that too and more pieces fell into place.  I never really spoke to Eddie although towards the end of my time going racing daily we would occasionally nod at each other on the train and a couple of years later we were introduced by a mutual friend and my mate asked what he fancied for the day and he gave one horse.  We backed it.  It won.....at 14/1.  For a while he used to tip at the minor exchange WBX and if you had a bet in a week or month or something you could see his views.  He was excellent and i followed him pretty much everyday and won a decent amount and then he started appearing on RUK and in the Racing Post.  It is a very hard job to win as a tipster for the post.  You don't know the prices before you bet and he is probably break even at best but if I can get a price i think will beat SP I still bet them.  He certainly owes me nothing financially and what I learnt from observing him all those years has been invaluable.  I only wish I wasn't so shy in person and had felt able to tell him what a big influence he had been.  Who knows maybe he will read this???

[redarmi]

£15 e/w Priors Gold @ 7/1 VC

Decent shape for e/w in a lot of the races at Cheltenham today and am looking at possibly having a multiple but this one looks decent on its own.

[Marky147]

Have to say I've never had much interest in sports betting beyond the mug punting I do and tip following for sweats. Between this and Eso's diaries I've suddenly garnered an interest in learning a little more about the workings of sports betting and maybe trying to make myself a little more savvy in my betting practices (won't be hard )


Great read and I think it's probably neck and neck between yourself and Richard now for the best/ most interesting diaries on Blonde at present 

[Marky147]

I've done your 3 horses alongside one that was given to me by a guy on another forum in a £1 e/w lucky 15 and a £2.5 e/w acca so gl us

[Eso Kral]

Have to say I've never had much interest in sports betting beyond the mug punting I do and tip following for sweats. Between this and Eso's diaries I've suddenly garnered an interest in learning a little more about the workings of sports betting and maybe trying to make myself a little more savvy in my betting practices (won't be hard )


Great read and I think it's probably neck and neck between yourself and Richard now for the best/ most interesting diaries on Blonde at present 

Red  Pwns me atm I think i am gonna have to go on a degen spell and report it to get my readers back or just come to Vegas with you!! 

[Marky147]

Have to say I've never had much interest in sports betting beyond the mug punting I do and tip following for sweats. Between this and Eso's diaries I've suddenly garnered an interest in learning a little more about the workings of sports betting and maybe trying to make myself a little more savvy in my betting practices (won't be hard )


Great read and I think it's probably neck and neck between yourself and Richard now for the best/ most interesting diaries on Blonde at present 

Red  Pwns me atm I think i am gonna have to go on a degen spell and report it to get my readers back or just come to Vegas with you!! 

I think that you could possibly be a calming influence on myself and Alex so not a bad idea... We just seem to enable each other in the worst possible way

[Chompy]

Eddie The Shoe. Does he really make the game pay? I know it's an old argument but why are these boys on TV rather than puntering? I know they pick up around £400 for a shift but is a financial thing or just this need that everyone in the country seems to have to want to appear on the telly?

I was once asked to appear on the old ATR but have never wanted to do it. Still waiting for that invite on to CH865 mind...

[Eso Kral]

Eddie The Shoe. Does he really make the game pay? I know it's an old argument but why are these boys on TV rather than puntering? I know they pick up around £400 for a shift but is a financial thing or just this need that everyone in the country seems to have to want to appear on the telly?

I was once asked to appear on the old ATR but have never wanted to do it. Still waiting for that invite on to CH914865 mind...

FYP

[redarmi]

Eddie The Shoe. Does he really make the game pay? I know it's an old argument but why are these boys on TV rather than puntering? I know they pick up around £400 for a shift but is a financial thing or just this need that everyone in the country seems to have to want to appear on the telly?

I was once asked to appear on the old ATR but have never wanted to do it. Still waiting for that invite on to CH865 mind...

I don't know him at all but I would imagine he is a winning punter still.  I am fairly sure he was when I was going racing.  I know Dave Nevison and Alan Potts a lot better and they have both taken money for punditry in the past (Nev more so than Alan) and they have both been winning punters over the years.  I would imgine Nev is probably struggling a bit now though but I haven't seen him or spoken to him for a couple of years that is just the impression I get.  I think as a punter certainty of income can be a massive draw especially when you bet at the end of the market Eddie normally does.  I thought the payment for a RUK shift was £200 but even at £400 it isn't that much and I would imagine they all need other income than that they get from a shift on RUK and a column in the Post.  He lives in SW London and is married with a couple of kids so it can't be cheap.  I do know that when he did the Observer column a mutual friend mentioned that he said he genuinely enjoyed the writing which might be a factor I suppose.  I would pay for his views and there aren't many that appear in print or on TV that i could say that about.

[TheChipPrince]

Do you know much of Tony Ansell?

[redarmi]

Yes.  He was a consultant to us when i worked at Victor Chandler and I was a client of his advisory service for a couple of years about 8-9 years ago.  Interesting character but slightly, erm, unusual.  He is an agraphobic who at one point hadn't been outside the house for years.  He is also incredibly arrogant but, to be fair, with some justification as he is very intelligent.  He is almost certainly a decent sized winner and the tips from his service move the market.  About ten years ago I was working for a firm in Leeds called Betabet and we were a fairly small online business so didn't have any staff working overnight so when we left at night we set the limits on the markets we had up very low and for a particular cricket match they were something like £50 but there was a slight bug that they could then have something like £2 bets as many as they liked (so we didn't discourage the multiple punters I think was the reasoning).  Anyway I came in early the next morning and my screen was full of something like 750 £2 bets on a cricket match that had been placed from something like 2am in the morning to 430am and they were from Ansell.  Not sure what that says about him....I suppose it is somewhere between slightly obssessive and incredibly driven.  May I ask why you were interested in him?

[redarmi]

So tempted by England in this ODI.  Aussies got 350 on this pitch.  England surely better than Australia.  Just lost a wicket as I typed.  I am a backer at 3.75 in new market.