My tennis betting diary

[redarmi]

Fancy Gasquet big time for tonight. Think it's likely to be a close match, but wouldn't be overly surprised to see him win in 3. He's far too big at 15/8. Ferrer's the consummate professional but he's really not that great on hard court surfaces. Think Gasquet is playing well enough to cause the upset.

Can't see anything that is likely to tempt me tonight, so likely to stay away from the other matches.

I really don't watch much tennis but every tournament I have watched seems to have featured Gasquet flattering to deceive and then not getting there when he is a dog for a game.

[Horneris]

I really liked Gasquet but one of my expert tennis contacts tells me he has little chance. He claims Ferrer can just get everything back even when Gasquet is in this sort of form then Gasquet gets impatient and moves to the net and Ferrer comes up with the pass. He said Ferrer is 5-1 up on the H2H for a damn good reason.

I defo agree Gasquet is playing well and Ferrer badly this tourn but I don't think I will get involved now. I hope Richard wins tho.

[Horneris]

Can't decide whether the fact that after tonight you will have been able to guess the mens quarter finals pre tournament to an exact tee.

On the plus side the tournament from now should be awesome and have some great tennis.

On the negative side everyone loves a huge upset and good run from an underdog and it doesn't paint a good picture regarding the depth in the mens game.

[Solaris]

Can't decide whether the fact that after tonight you will have been able to guess the mens quarter finals pre tournament to an exact tee.

On the plus side the tournament from now should be awesome and have some great tennis.

On the negative side everyone loves a huge upset and good run from an underdog and it doesn't paint a good picture regarding the depth in the mens game.

From a betting perspective it's been awful, but the quality of the tennis from tomorrow onwards will be something special. I'm sure the causal observer would love the WTA more as you never know who will win nowadays, but I'd much rather have the top four men's seeds in the semis giving me something incredible to watch.

Can completely understand your friends argument re: Gasquet, but I just feel that right now he offers big value. Ferrer's gameplan won't come as a shock to anyone, he's going to try and grind Gasquet down. Ordinarily I would suggest he could do that, but having watched Gasquet I feel he looks a different prospect right now. He absolutely destroyed Tipsarevic who has had a decent start to the year and looked very good in the process. Worth noting their last meeting was over two years ago too.

I just don't rate Ferrer that highly on hard courts. He has pretty limited weapons and so long as Gasquet can keep his cool I really do feel he'll come through. Be interesting to watch because as has been said Ferrer definitely has the type of game to frustrate Gasquet, but I like to look for value and for me Gasquet offers it.

[MereNovice]

Great shout on Errani - a remarkable result.
With Serena Williams struggling big time, you can still get 11/4 on Kvitova for the tournament.

[Horneris]

After what I said, big upsets going down tonight.

Nishikori played a fantastically consistent match.

[Solaris]

After what I said, big upsets going down tonight.

Nishikori played a fantastically consistent match.

Your friend > me

Truly disappointing from Gasquet and I couldn't believe the Williams or Tsonga result.

Gasquet @ 15/8 v Ferrer (3 units) LOST - 3 games
Over 38.5 games @ 10/11 (3 units) LOST - 3 games
Gasquet to win 3-0 @ 7/1 (2 units) LOST - 2 games
Gasquet + 4.5 @ 9/10 (3 units) LOST - 3 games
Errani @ 9/4 v Zheng (2 units) WON + 4.5 units
Williams - 6.5 games @ 5/6 (3 units) LOST - 3 games

- 9.5 units

TOTAL PROFIT: 86.32 UNITS

[Solaris]

Lisicki @ 3/1 v Sharapova (2 units)
Over 20.5 games @ 10/11 (2 units)
Hewitt + 9.5 games @ evens (3 units)
Over 27.5 games @ 11/10 (2 units)

Hajek @ 6/5 v Ilhan (2 units)
Zelmja @ 7/10 v Phau (3 units)
Pashanski @ 12/5 v Bemelmans (2 units)
Mektic @ 5/6 v Gawron (2 units)

[Horneris]

Truly amazing fight by Lleyton in that set, I take back what I said about him.

0-3 to 6-4 vs the world number one.

[Solaris]

Truly amazing fight by Lleyton in that set, I take back what I said about him.

0-3 to 6-4 vs the world number one.

Was most pleased as it helped me get over the handicap and the overs! Good man Lleyton.

Lisicki @ 3/1 v Sharapova (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Over 20.5 games @ 10/11 (2 units) WON + 1.82 units
Hewitt + 9.5 games @ evens (3 units) WON + 3 units
Over 27.5 games @ 11/10 (2 units) WON + 2.2 units
Hajek @ 6/5 v Ilhan (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Zelmja @ 7/10 v Phau (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Pashanski @ 12/5 v Bemelmans (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Mektic @ 5/6 v Gawron (2 units) LOST - 2 units

TOTAL PROFIT: 82.34 UNITS

Bit swingy atm. Combination of poor picks and a bit of bad luck at times. Have to expect downswings so I'm comfortable with it. I don't like to make predictions as to where I should be profit wise etc, but I'm miles in front of what I hoped for so absolutely no chance of any complaints from me.

Berdych @ 18/5 v Nadal
Berdych + 5.5 games @ evens (3 units)
Over 37.5 games @ 5/6 (3 units)
Knittel @ 23/20 v Brands (2 units)
Smyczek @ 5/6 v Bogdanovic (5 units)
Gabashvilli @ 21/20 v Berrer (2 units)
Kudla @ 3/4 v Yang (2 units)

[MereNovice]

Apart from him being British and this being his first match of the year is there any specific reason you are going so strong against Bogdanovic when he has a 3-0 H2H record over Smyczek (all of them in straight sets)?

[Solaris]

Apart from him being British and this being his first match of the year is there any specific reason you are going so strong against Bogdanovic when he has a 3-0 H2H record over Smyczek (all of them in straight sets)?

I'm a huge, huge believer in momentum. This is Bogdanovic's first tourney of the year whilst Smyczek had a good run in the Aussie Open qualifiers, just falling short at the final hurdle. Think it's far too difficult to read into h2h's at the challenger level. For starters one of them was on grass, whilst another was more than 4 years ago. Think you have to be careful in that instance in reading too much into it.

I will add I started posting this at 3-3, it's currently *3-5 0-15 to Smyczek!

Berdych @ 18/5 v Nadal LOST - 1 unit
Berdych + 5.5 games @ evens (3 units) WON + 3 units
Over 37.5 games @ 5/6 (3 units) WON + 2.29 units
Knittel @ 23/20 v Brands (2 units) WON + 2.6 units
Smyczek @ 5/6 v Bogdanovic (5 units) WON + 4.15 units
Gabashvilli @ 21/20 v Berrer (2 units)  LOST - 2 units
Kudla @ 3/4 v Yang (2 units) WON + 1.5 units

Current P+L: + 92.88 units

[Solaris]

Tonight:

Makarova @ 3 v Sharapova (2 units)
Makarova + 4.5 @ 11/10 (2 units)
Over 20.5 games @ evens (2 units)
Errani + 6.5 games @ 9/10 (2 units)
Over 18.5 games @ evens (2 units)

Going to leave the men's stuff alone. Can't see any value in it whatsoever.

Bogdanovic getting ready to bite me in the arse as well. Bleh.

[MereNovice]

Bogdanovic didn't let you down!
Errani just come in nicely too.
Good start.

[Solaris]

Bogdanovic didn't let you down!
Errani just come in nicely too.
Good start.

Expected more from Makarova. Beating Kanepi, Zvonareva and Williams isn't exactly an easy route to the quarters!

Makarova @ 3 v Sharapova (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Makarova + 4.5 @ 11/10 (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Over 20.5 games @ evens (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Errani + 6.5 games @ 9/10 (2 units) WON + 1.8 units
Over 18.5 games @ evens (2 units) WON 2 units

Current P+L: + 90.68 units