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Author Topic: My tennis betting diary  (Read 85734 times)
Solaris
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« Reply #360 on: January 26, 2012, 10:57:18 PM »

Do you have a note of your in play p/l and pre match?
Have you been following all the games you have Bet in play as you seem to have done very well (except Hewitt Smiley) with this, would you say your better at reading how a game would turn out in play or beforehand? your bets seem to be bigger also during a Match.

I did, but got lazy and stopped updating it. I will resolve to sort it out tomorrow.

I'd say 95% of my in-play bets are based on what I'm watching. Would be absolutely crazy to be betting in-play without watching the action. I'd actually suggest that most of my losing in-play bets are as a result of not actually watching the action and from me making reactionary bets.

You will always be better off betting in-play imo. You can do so much more, see so much more and react so much better. I will always make in-play bets bigger because I can back my judgment with evidence.

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Solaris
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« Reply #361 on: January 26, 2012, 11:07:40 PM »

What was the 10point in running bet all about at 3-1? If it was slight tilt/ chase don't worry we all been there but seemed so odd u went from 1pt at evens to an inrunning 10pt bet at 3-1 that was prob decent value but not like a massive rick or anything

Can't remember the game before u ask Smiley

That was in the Wawrinka - Almagro match I believe. Had a few units on Wawrinka to win + 4.5 if I remember rightly (being lazy and cba to look). Was watching the match from the start and it became fairly obvious that Wawrinka was in real trouble. Wasn't moving well and was being forced all over the court by Almagro. Was in stark contrast to his performance vs Baghdatis a few nights before.

Almagro nicked the first set in a tie-break having broken at 5-5 and then being broken himself whilst serving for the set. At this point I held fire as I wanted to see how Wawrinka begun the second set and it became immediately obvious all was not well. Think I've said in a post before, but Almagro was trading at 1.84 at 3-2 up in the second set when he should have been 1.72 or so. It was as if very few could really see the problems he actually was having. Was looking for the best bet I could find at the time and 3-0 at 3/1 screamed out at me. I then got very fortunate as Wawrinka called on a trainer, prices plummeted and he proceeded to lose the next 3 games to lose the set, then thankfully lost the third set too. Decided to gamble it up a bit and go bigger than perhaps I should have, but it worked out for me.
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Solaris
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« Reply #362 on: January 26, 2012, 11:17:56 PM »

In-play: Sugita @ 15/8 v Duclos 5-7 *0-1 (5 units)
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Solaris
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« Reply #363 on: January 27, 2012, 08:00:46 AM »

Capkovic @ 5/2 v Soeda (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Lorenzi @ 11/10 to win 2-0 v Navarro (2 units) WON + 2.2 units
Kuznetsov @ evens v Smyczek (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Yani @ 5/6 v Sock (2 units) LOST - 2 units
In-play: Sugita @ 15/8 v Duclos 5-7 *0-1 (5 units) WON + 9.3 units

TOTAL PROFIT: + 103.98 units
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tikay
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« Reply #364 on: January 27, 2012, 08:04:37 AM »


That was a pretty good 24 hours!
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Solaris
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« Reply #365 on: January 27, 2012, 08:24:06 AM »


That was a pretty good 24 hours!

No complaints here! Enjoyed some of the posting on this thread and also made some good profit on the day, so most pleased.

Went against the common view that Fed would win and that paid dividends. Was also nice getting the first set tie-break bet right @ 9/2 for 2 units!

Interesting to see that Djokovic's price has been smashed in. Going to have a small nibble on Djokovic to win 3-0 but I don't like the prices for anything else and will just enjoy watching the match as and when I can.

Djokovic to win 3-0 @ 2/1 (3 units)
Klizan @ 23/20
Meffert @ 5/4
Bemelmans @ 11/10 (2 units)

That's it for today. Been getting a bit burnt on the challenger scene this week so scaling my bets back. Hard to gauge too much without being able to watch all the games.
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Sighmuns
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« Reply #366 on: January 27, 2012, 10:38:46 AM »

C'mon Andy... In the second set the only person who could beat Murray was Murray... Novak not in it at the mo
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mondatoo
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« Reply #367 on: January 27, 2012, 10:42:48 AM »

C'mon Andy... In the second set the only person who could beat Murray was Murray... Novak not in it at the mo

Think that's a bit harsh on Murray, Djokovic wasn't that bad just Murray play some brillaint stuff, LETS DO THIS!!!!
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« Reply #368 on: January 27, 2012, 11:27:30 AM »

C'mon Andy... In the second set the only person who could beat Murray was Murray... Novak not in it at the mo

Think that's a bit harsh on Murray, Djokovic wasn't that bad just Murray play some brillaint stuff, LETS DO THIS!!!!

Yeah, I really shouldn't post the mood of the points, it changes so quickly. Really enjoying the match here
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Hairydude
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« Reply #369 on: January 27, 2012, 11:41:42 AM »

Game so close.... Arber situation; Djok 8/11 on PP and murray 2/1 on 365
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« Reply #370 on: January 27, 2012, 11:45:39 AM »

Huge game from Murray there.
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kinboshi
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« Reply #371 on: January 27, 2012, 11:51:38 AM »

Huge game from Murray there.

Yep, brilliant defence on that last point.

Murray Watch - Current Status = British.
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« Reply #372 on: January 27, 2012, 12:06:06 PM »

BOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM, CMON!!!

PS Sorry for turning your diary into Murray rail Solaris  Wink
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Hairydude
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« Reply #373 on: January 27, 2012, 12:56:34 PM »

What a match! really hope Murray wins but wouldnt be his biggest failure to get put out here; both playing great tennis
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« Reply #374 on: January 27, 2012, 12:59:17 PM »

Djokovic has really stepped it up from the 4th onwards, not confident at all.
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