You might be right. I might be making haphazard, crazy bets and getting lucky. We'll see. I personally don't believe that's the case, but the only way to prove that is to carry on.
It is actually kind of the opposite of this. If you are a good judge then you want your bankroll to be robust enough to allow your skill to out in the long run whereas in the short term you can go bust through bad luck. That said I doubt very much that Morita to beat Hercog is worth upwards of 7% of your bankroll. My absolute maximum bet is 5% of my bankroll and I place them very, very rarely and most bets are in the region of 1-2% of bankroll. You started by having 1 unit bets but now there are regular 10-20 and 30 unit bets. Are these bets really worth 10x what the original bets were worth? Unfortunately it makes your record pretty much worthless because the results in the last week or so are so much more important than the previous results and no sensible staking system would have you having any bet worth 3% the size of your largest bet. It is pretty obvious that these units bear no resemblance to the amounts you are actually placing yourself if, indeed, you are betting these yourself (no shame if you aren't but it is important that tipping amount bear resemblance to real figures). Also so many of the bets now seem to be on derivative markets. Is a player to win 2-0 really better value than them to win the game outright given the different margins you are up against?
With regards to the Morita bet, she was for 20 units to win which represented less than 5% of my bank. I had about 480 units before I made that bet. I was convinced she would win (admittedly she saved a match-point), but ultimately she won.
I completely understand your point re: the amount I should be betting etc, but I feel I should definitely be stepping up my bet sizing in any case. It's something I have to learn with regards to sizing and maybe I was going a bit overboard, but I'm happy I was making the right sort of decisions. There's very little point (imo) to continue to bet between 1-3 units on matches with a 470 unit roll. Just need to find the right equilibrium. Don't think it would be unfair or even wrong to say I was getting it wrong, but I was making the right decisions a lot of the time, just perhaps putting too much at risk.
I like to bet on set scores when I feel the player I wish too back is too short and I expect him to win comfortably. Would rather take 11/10 to win 2-0 than 1/2 for the outright win. I am learning the hard way how to react when it goes wrong. The Montanes bet, for example, was a bit of chasing, a bit of tilt and just plain getting it wrong. I don't follow anyone or anything so have to learn the hard way how to trade properly. I will get it wrong, but as long as I'm getting it right more than I am getting it wrong, that's the main thing for me. I'm still learning all the time and have said time and again this year was purely a learning curve for me.
My bets and the sizes are 100% genuine. I post within nearly a minute on every occasion I place the bet and never edit my posts. Would rather go busto making bad decisions than lie and make stuff up. I'd get found out either way. I take wins and losses the same way and just enjoy the challenge.
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