Golf Betting 2012

[bobby1]

There have been a few examples this season of players winning when their win could be attributed to something good happening to people close to them, a sort of Keith Elliott version of 'inspiration by comparison'. There has also been a run of winners that had recently had children, again an Elliiott driven idea that the 'nappy factor', once over the initial upheaval can be a major driving force in a mans life.

Fran Mol went to Ed Mols wedding two weeks ago and said it was one of the proudest days in his life and then went birdietastic on Sunday last week, Bubba is obviously a different man since adopting a baby, so much so he is taking a lot of time off as he wants to be with his child.

Prob with most of those inspiration by comparison angles is they become apparent afterwards but not always before but what about this one which could be the most unusual of them all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eHrF7re9mQ


The golf boys video from last year is a group of golfers taking the mick out of themselves, led by Ben Crane who had a reputation a few years ago of being quite a surly character, he has become a bit of a cult on twitter since then too.

Of the four players in the video, Hunter Mahan won his biggest tourney 6 weeks ago, this was followed by Bubba Watson winning his biggest tournament 4 weeks ago and last week Rickie Fowler finally got his first PGA tour win, inspired by each other or just totally unconnected?

If inspired by each other then maybe this week Ben Crane, on one of his favourite courses on tour( three top 6 finishes in the last 4 years) could be inspired by his close friends all winning in recent weeks.

Then again it might just all be complete bollox but a small bet at 75 has been taken.

I'm just sayin it might work ;o)

[millidonk]

Lol, love it. Great stuff. Not had a bet on the golf for a while, but will now! GL us.

[bobby1]

Lol, love it. Great stuff. Not had a bet on the golf for a while, but will now! GL us.

gl mate, when he shoots +10 for the first two rounds and says' i am sick of seeing all my mates win, the *****' then we can firmly file it in the bollox camp!

[millidonk]

Lol, love it. Great stuff. Not had a bet on the golf for a while, but will now! GL us.

gl mate, when he shoots +10 for the first two rounds and says' i am sick of seeing all my mates win, the *****' then we can firmly file it in the bollox camp!

haha probs right, but tbf i normally pick people due to the fact they have the same name as someone i know.. £10 ew down. LEGO.

[bobby1]

gl m8

[T_Mar]

Love it bobby, I've read a blog suggesting similar theories about players doing well after compatriots have had big wins.. I think the example was Hoey (cant remember for sure) who makes a habit of winning the week after one his countryman... Might be something in it... You could put a case forTringale after his 'roomy' won last week also... First time at the course so might be an ask, but been in decent form and potentially a big price.. could maybe hit the frame?

All the books paying 6 places pretty much, so I'm continuing to look for EW value.. Curtis nicked a spot for me last week from knowhere which was a bonus

Scott @ 40/1
Kaymer @ 66/1
Z Johnson @ 66/1
Baddeley @ 125/1

[bobby1]

Love it bobby, I've read a blog suggesting similar theories about players doing well after compatriots have had big wins.. I think the example was Hoey (cant remember for sure) who makes a habit of winning the week after one his countryman... Might be something in it... You could put a case forTringale after his 'roomy' won last week also... First time at the course so might be an ask, but been in decent form and potentially a big price.. could maybe hit the frame?

All the books paying 6 places pretty much, so I'm continuing to look for EW value.. Curtis nicked a spot for me last week from knowhere which was a bonus

Scott @ 40/1
Kaymer @ 66/1
Z Johnson @ 66/1
Baddeley @ 125/1

Hoey is deffo one to note on that count mate, I think I mentioned that stat earlier in this thread but after he had won again...doh me.

Good shout re Tringale being Fowlers room mate too, as you say it might be tough this week but in the next few weeks it might pay off.

One of the most emotional 'inspired' wins would be Gentlle Ben Crenshaw winning at Augusta in 1995 days after his only coach Harvey Penick had died. He hadn't broken 70 anywhere in the previous few months and went from pall bearer at his friends funeral to putting the lights out the next week.

I remember him crying at two of his press conferences in the first three days and would prob have been balls deep on BF if it had been around then but on the course he just looked like he was doing it for someone else and of course broke down again when he did win.

[Karabiner]

The "emotional" win that always sticks in my mind is when Miles Tunnicliff won the week after his mum died.

I don't think he ever won before or since that on the main tour but that week he played totally in the zone.

[bobby1]

That reminds me of Scott Strange winning at (I think) the Welsh Open at Celtic Manor, he was interviewed before the 4th round and almost broke down crying as he sent a message to his family via TV to let his sister know he had a chance to win. It turned out she was very seriously ill and he had promised her he would try and win a comp for her.

He actually hit one of the worst shanks I have seen a pro hit and still won.

[bobby1]

Rickie Fowler has admitted that the success of close friend Bubba Watson at The Masters last month provided him with the extra motivation he needed to finally register his first PGA Tour victory.

Fowler - who turned professional in 2009 - broke his duck on the American circuit last weekend when he got the better of Rory McIlroy and D.A Points in a play-off to win the Wells Fargo Championship at the first extra hole.

The triumph came less than a month after Watson had claimed his maiden major title with a memorable play-off win of his own over South Africa's Louis Oosthuizen at Augusta.

Remote Record
Fowler - who appeared alongside Watson (as well as Hunter Mahan and Ben Crane) in spoof 'boy band' video - has now credited the left-hander with giving him the extra push he needed to take his own game to the next level.

"It was nice for me to be there on Sunday when he (Watson) won the Masters and it kind of motivated me a little bit more to want to be in that situation," explained the 23-year-old.

"I can definitely give some credit to Bubba for motivating me a bit and giving me a kind of kick in the butt to go out and get it done."

[Marky147]

On your boy Benny Crane too so gl us

[bobby1]

The practice round on Tuesday was postponed due to rain, and there was an almighty storm due to hit the track today meaning the fast conditions will have changed to soft by start time. The greens should be far more receptive than if the rain had stayed away so scoring should be ok on the first day tho there is a chance of the odd storm first thing on Thursday which might affect play.

Friday is set to be the windiest day at around 15mph+ but pretty consistent thru the day.

Sat and Sunday much drier and humid with 15-20 mph winds and a small chance of thunder again on Sunday. Hopefully there wont be too much draw bias on the first day.

I guess it will play harder as the week goes on if that forecast holds but as with storm forecasts in Florida that could change.

I can't remember a more wide open comp outside the majors. Woods and Mickelson have won once each at this track but don't seem to like it much, Rory missed two cuts from 2 visits and didn't bother to play last year, I guess 2 events is a small sample to judge his compatibility and he is playing superbly.

Donald looks rock solid and Westy has a bit of form here, tho Westy didn't play last year and blew a great chance to win the year before so all in all it looks like  a comp to either have few ew bets in as most firms are paying 6 places or lay a load and see how it pans out.

There have been 19 different winners in the last 19 years and looking thru the card of the course it has holes that shape both ways so unlike say Augusta or the Nissan Open where you need to hit it a certain way its not a course that is shaped to beat anyone really.That's probably why almost anyone can win here, as past results show.One thing that does seem to be a trend is that players in good current form coming into this week featured amongst the previous winners so with no real course bias it might just simply be that  playing well coming here is more important than course form. Only one winner in the last 8 years started shorter than 40/1 too.

Ive taken a little of Ben Crane and Ian Poulter who both seem in ok nick, Poulter played ok in Asia, where he was beaten by the draw one week and was top 15 the next. If it plays trickier as the week goes on it might just help him as birdietastic events aren't really his bag, more getting it around in the right places which given 4 of the last 6 winners here topped the greens in reg figures that week looks to be vital given the amount of bad spots there are.

Westwood currently leads the stats on tour in that category, with Mahan , Stricker, Scott and Rose of the fancied runners also in the top ten too.One player that might be helped by the rain is Toms who hits such a low ball flight that fast hard greens make it harder for him to stop the ball, in the soft it should play better for him, back to form last week and two top tens in recent years he might go well again at a decent price.

good luck to us all, its going to be a cracking week if the weather doesn't spoil it.

[bobby1]

On your boy Benny Crane too so gl us

Excellent mate, Im going to learn the words to the golf boys song over the weekend just in case he does it.

[bobby1]

Weather forecast in the Madeira Open is for wind and more wind, as soon as I saw the forecast I wanted to be on two really good wind players in Forsyth and the wind king himself Gary Orr. Forsyth was fav and looked about right so I took Orr to small stakes.

One player that did catch my eye lower down was Stephen Dodd who is also a really good wind player, his last 2 wins on the main tour were in Ireland and both weeks it blew. He is a big sturdy guy too which seems to help a little when it is windy.

He is getting on a bit now and has been known to fly to comps on the morning of the events if he has an afternoon tee time so might just be playing his time down to the Senior tour but at 100/1 in this field in conditions he loves I had a bit. His best finish on tour last year was again in tough conditions when he ran 9th behind Garcia in a decent event late last season.

Threw a total dart at Mikael Lundberg who strangely enough ( I think) has won three different events on the same course in Russia, he isnt in any kind of form at the moment but almost nicked a comp on the main tour at the end of last season in the Czech Open, had a top ten on the Challenge tour last month and at his best is ok in the context of this field. Couldnt resist at over 200/1 on BF.

[LeKnave]

following ace2m and bobby in on Poults EW @ 80/1 and top englishman @ 10/1.